I told you they were crap last election! :lol: The Tories are awful, always have been, incompetent and shoehorned in straight from Bullington and Oxford.

 

They are SO incompetent I wonder if thr mainstream media is manipulating the polls AGAIN and that their real numbers are much much lower.

As ridiculous as it may sound, if we had to vote again tomorrow I would be voting Labour. I don't agree with Jezza's ideas (well a significant majority) but this current Conservative government is beyond terrible. I think it really is time for the Under 35s to fight back.

!

Oh my

As ridiculous as it may sound, if we had to vote again tomorrow I would be voting Labour. I don't agree with Jezza's ideas (well a significant majority) but this current Conservative government is beyond terrible. I think it really is time for the Under 35s to fight back.

 

Tarzan Heseltine, a Tory, is of the view that this will happen at the next election as by then the older folk will be less and the younger folk will be more, demographically voting-wise. His logic is impeccable. That and the average age of Tory members being around 72. Sounds like a party about to be wiped-out as they get the blame for all and any forthcoming ills.

They are SO incompetent I wonder if thr mainstream media is manipulating the polls AGAIN and that their real numbers are much much lower.

 

There's really no point in manipulating polls, since there's only one poll that actually matters!

 

Tarzan Heseltine, a Tory, is of the view that this will happen at the next election as by then the older folk will be less and the younger folk will be more, demographically voting-wise. His logic is impeccable. That and the average age of Tory members being around 72. Sounds like a party about to be wiped-out as they get the blame for all and any forthcoming ills.

 

The age of Tories had been cited to predict their decline for as long as I can remember, but there are always new ones to replace the old. It's easy to be a lefty when you are young, with minimal responsibilities, but once people reach their thirties & forties with a family to raise and a mortgage to pay for, most people can no longer afford to be so radical. Plus they become the target, rather than the beneficiary, of extra taxation...

Tarzan Heseltine, a Tory, is of the view that this will happen at the next election as by then the older folk will be less and the younger folk will be more, demographically voting-wise. His logic is impeccable. That and the average age of Tory members being around 72. Sounds like a party about to be wiped-out as they get the blame for all and any forthcoming ills.

 

The "average age of a Tory member is 72" may have not been entirely accurate, and it definitely set off my scepticism meter. A more recent survey suggests that the average age of a Tory party member is 57. That's still not particularly low, but keep in mind that the same survey also shows that the average age of a Labour member, in spite of the alleged boost to youth through Corbyn, is 53.

 

 

 

The "average age of a Tory member is 72" may have not been entirely accurate, and it definitely set off my scepticism meter. A more recent survey suggests that the average age of a Tory party member is 57. That's still not particularly low, but keep in mind that the same survey also shows that the average age of a Labour member, in spite of the alleged boost to youth through Corbyn, is 53.

 

A more useful stat might be the average age of a *voter* for each party.

No, Vidcapper, the mainstrram media and in UK Westminster bubble DO manipulate polls to cause a bandwagon effect dor their favoured candidate, or boost numbers when support is sagging to make them seem more popular than they are.

No, Vidcapper, the mainstrram media and in UK Westminster bubble DO manipulate polls to cause a bandwagon effect dor their favoured candidate, or boost numbers when support is sagging to make them seem more popular than they are.

All the reputable polling companies sign up to a code of conduct which forbids blatant manipulation. While it is true that the precise wording of questions and the order in which they are asked can make a difference, I don't believe there is as much outright manipulation as you seem to think.

There's really no point in manipulating polls, since there's only one poll that actually matters!

The age of Tories had been cited to predict their decline for as long as I can remember, but there are always new ones to replace the old. It's easy to be a lefty when you are young, with minimal responsibilities, but once people reach their thirties & forties with a family to raise and a mortgage to pay for, most people can no longer afford to be so radical. Plus they become the target, rather than the beneficiary, of extra taxation...

 

errr if that were universally true the same party would get elected forever more. They don't. Not unless you have a very selective memory editing out all those elections the Tories didn't win a majority:

 

2017

2010

2005

2001

1997

1974

1974

1966

 

and so on.....

 

your theories are always amusingly illogical

No, Vidcapper, the mainstrram media and in UK Westminster bubble DO manipulate polls to cause a bandwagon effect dor their favoured candidate, or boost numbers when support is sagging to make them seem more popular than they are.

 

The last part of the above is the most important bit - if a party/person is very unpopular, no amount of polls claiming the opposite will change that fact.

 

errr if that were universally true the same party would get elected forever more. They don't. Not unless you have a very selective memory editing out all those elections the Tories didn't win a majority:

 

2017

2010

2005

2001

1997

1974

1974

1966

 

and so on.....

 

your theories are always amusingly illogical

 

What a pity you can't make a career out of deliberately misunderstanding me - you'd be a millionaire! :rolleyes:

 

I was not referring to election to election variations, which obviously depend on economic circumstances and how the gov't is perceived to have performed - but to the long term trend.

All the reputable polling companies sign up to a code of conduct which forbids blatant manipulation. While it is true that the precise wording of questions and the order in which they are asked can make a difference, I don't believe there is as much outright manipulation as you seem to think.

 

Pfft.

 

The Elite are all in it together.

 

Why were all the insider polls and BBC narratives the same -150 Gross Tory majority etc, Hillary's manipulated polling in Michigan and pre-election etc. It happens.

The age of Tories had been cited to predict their decline for as long as I can remember, but there are always new ones to replace the old. It's easy to be a lefty when you are young, with minimal responsibilities, but once people reach their thirties & forties with a family to raise and a mortgage to pay for, most people can no longer afford to be so radical. Plus they become the target, rather than the beneficiary, of extra taxation...

Which is why it's a particularly cataclysmic omen for the Tories that Labour was more popular with voters in their 30s and 40s at the last election. More and more of them don't have mortgages and are still renting. The crossover age where Tories start to be more popular than Labour was 47 in June.

Edited October 9, 20177 yr by Qassändra

The last part of the above is the most important bit - if a party/person is very unpopular, no amount of polls claiming the opposite will change that fact.

What a pity you can't make a career out of deliberately misunderstanding me - you'd be a millionaire! :rolleyes:

 

I was not referring to election to election variations, which obviously depend on economic circumstances and how the gov't is perceived to have performed - but to the long term trend.

 

So to follow through your logic (again!) why do you not feel an economic downturn following Brexit won't have exactly the same result as general elections? Why is that immune to the effects of older people feeling pissed off at doing badly out of it all as well as young people feeling VERY pissed off at the state of affairs already? Not deliberately misunderstanding you at all. Just using your own words to undermine your own arguments, which is not the same thing at all. :rolleyes:

Which is why it's a particularly cataclysmic omen for the Tories that Labour was more popular with voters in their 30s and 40s at the last election. More and more of them don't have mortgages and are still renting. The crossover age where Tories start to be more popular than Labour was 47 in June.

 

Yep. A bit worrying because in 2015 it was 34.

 

 

YouGov did not include a graphic for the below chart (which is 2015) but I'll predict the division is even more stark now with Labour gaining even more with those 'Privately Renting' (just checked, now 51% Lab and 32% Con). IIRC the ONS predicts that those privately renting will outnumber owner occupiers by the middle of the next decade...

 

Edited October 9, 20177 yr by Doctor Blind

Pfft.

 

The Elite are all in it together.

 

Why were all the insider polls and BBC narratives the same -150 Gross Tory majority etc, Hillary's manipulated polling in Michigan and pre-election etc. It happens.

 

There is a flaw in your theory though...

 

No-one benefits from rigged polls, as an planning made on the basis of them is bound to be flawed. It's the old GIGO scenario. It's likely the Tory GE campaign would have been very different if they'd have known from the start Labour were almost neck & neck with them.

 

Which is why it's a particularly cataclysmic omen for the Tories that Labour was more popular with voters in their 30s and 40s at the last election. More and more of them don't have mortgages and are still renting. The crossover age where Tories start to be more popular than Labour was 47 in June.

 

I can't see the Tories being as complacent at the next election though - they will undoubtedly tailor their manifesto to appeal to the 30's/40's age group next time.

 

 

So to follow through your logic (again!) why do you not feel an economic downturn following Brexit won't have exactly the same result as general elections? Why is that immune to the effects of older people feeling pissed off at doing badly out of it all as well as young people feeling VERY pissed off at the state of affairs already? Not deliberately misunderstanding you at all. Just using your own words to undermine your own arguments, which is not the same thing at all. :rolleyes:

 

My obvious first question would be - is the downturn actually due to Brexit, or part of a global decline?

 

At the end of the day though, who will win will depend on which party voters trust more on the economy. Labour tend to do better when voters perceive it's safer to vote for them - generally when the economy is doing OK (e.g. 1997). OTOH, in the middle of a downturn you need to hit the brake rather than the accelerator, even if it makes you unpopular i.e. austerity.

 

YouGov did not include a graphic for the below chart (which is 2015) but I'll predict the division is even more stark now with Labour gaining even more with those 'Privately Renting' (just checked, now 51% Lab and 32% Con). IIRC the ONS predicts that those privately renting will outnumber owner occupiers by the middle of the next decade...

 

 

I just wish it had included figures on the relative numbers in each housing option, as the higher the numbers in a segment, obviously the more votes it could generate.

My obvious first question would be - is the downturn actually due to Brexit, or part of a global decline?

 

Backtracking much...

 

I said if the economy declined as a result of Brexit (or was perceived to decline, if you like). Irrelevant either way. We have had a global decline following policies pursued by the Labour Party (and supported all the way by the Tories) which threw up a coalition, a short-lived Tory majority, and a minority-bribed Tory government. If things get any worse, whatever the cause (but Brexit is likely to be the main cause given our declining national fortunes compared to our worldwide equivalents), voters react against governments that have failed - or, as I have said already, the TORIES WOULD BE IN POWER FOREVER using your own very flawed arguments. They can't even manage a majority after 10 years of misery and a lefty-boogie-man to put on the front pages.......

I can't see the Tories being as complacent at the next election though - they will undoubtedly tailor their manifesto to appeal to the 30's/40's age group next time.

It's not that simple though. The housing crisis, which is a big part of this for obvious reasons, is a huge, structural problem and you can't convince voters that you can be trusted to solve it with some tiny reforms to social housing and a handful of manifesto pledges at the next election. Granted that the Tories are far from the only culprits for the crisis, but due to the make-up of their party they are uniquely badly placed to solve it.

Backtracking much...

 

I said if the economy declined as a result of Brexit (or was perceived to decline, if you like).

 

Sorry, I didn't spot that.

 

Mind you, I don't know how blame could be definitively placed on Brexit? :unsure:

 

Irrelevant either way. We have had a global decline following policies pursued by the Labour Party (and supported all the way by the Tories) which threw up a coalition, a short-lived Tory majority, and a minority-bribed Tory government. If things get any worse, whatever the cause (but Brexit is likely to be the main cause given our declining national fortunes compared to our worldwide equivalents), voters react against governments that have failed - or, as I have said already, the TORIES WOULD BE IN POWER FOREVER using your own very flawed arguments.

No, the flaw here is in your interpretation of what I said

 

They can't even manage a majority after 10 years of misery and a lefty-boogie-man to put on the front pages.......

 

A combination of Tory complacency thanks to misleading polls, and a fantasy Labour manifesto that promised the earth, but whose costing was dubious to say the least.

 

 

A combination of Tory complacency thanks to misleading polls, and a fantasy Labour manifesto that promised the earth, but whose costing was dubious to say the least.

I don't mean to bang on about this, but the Tory manifesto didn't even try and cost its pledges.