I'm not sure. Unimaginable it may be, but I really doubt Ed Miliband would have been losing council seats against a government in crisis, as John McDonnell so rightly diagnoses them.

I'm not sure. Unimaginable it may be, but I really doubt Ed Miliband would have been losing council seats against a government in crisis, as John McDonnell so rightly diagnoses them.

 

Actually, the BBC projects on results so far Labour have won the estimated national vote by about 1-2% -- that would be better than Ed Miliband's first outing in 2011, where he lost to the Tories by 1%.

 

In any case, most of the losses Labour have suffered were to UKIP, which suggests it's the EU referendum that is causing Labour trouble more than anything else -- yet that is the very issue where the Blairites want to take a kamikaze "no compromise with the electorate" approach.

With UKIP it's more that 2013 was their breakthrough year so they've not been this competitive in these seats before.

Some of Labour's one-party states have gained an opposition. Manchester now has a solitary Lib Dem (the former MP for Manchester Withington) to stand up to the Labour group of 95 councillors. In pre-coalition days, there was a sizeable Lib Dem group.

 

Knowsley now has an opposition comprising three Lib Dem councillors.

 

Overall, the number of seats changing hands across England is remarkably low.

 

The turnout for the PCC elections is up on last time, although still pathetically low. Some of the increase will be a result of local elections taking place on the same day in large parts of the country.

Actually, the BBC projects on results so far Labour have won the estimated national vote by about 1-2% -- that would be better than Ed Miliband's first outing in 2011, where he lost to the Tories by 1%.

I think you're possibly comparing apples with pears in terms of measurement - on the metric you're basing this year on (I presume raw vote from all the councils voting), Labour beat the Tories by 2 percent in 2011. I think you're referring to the estimated national vote share for 2011 which they'll have projected from the results. I don't think they'll have worked out for this year yet until all the council results are in.

 

Nonetheless, since 2012 Labour are down 7 points and the Conservatives are down 1. We're at a point of unpopularity for the government on a par with 2012, not 2011, and Labour are still not able to capitalise on that. It's putting a lot of hope on to think things would get more favourable a year down the line after the divisive EU referendum's out of the way.

Yeah that's not what PR is.

 

Yes it is. Proportional votes so a more balanced parliament.

 

So with Labour largely holding its ground (outside of Scotland anyway), "unelectable" Corbyn has proven to be just as much (or as little) electable as the "centre-ground" numpties who ran the show for the previous five years

 

Absolutely!

 

Have you seen the map? Apart from Scotland, nearly all red!!

 

Corbyn to win the General! :yahoo:

Gerry Carroll - People Before Profit tops the poll in Republican West Belfast!!

The Tories have now lost almost as many council seats as Labour. The BBC - even though the information is from their website - don't seem to have picked up on that yet. The Lib Dems have now made the most net gains, albeit only 30.

This seems to be baby steps away from the disastrous 2015. Could have gone better but at least there isn't a collapse outside Scotland. Although what is going on in Scotland is certainly unexpected.

 

The scrutiny is always on Labour's side, the Tories won't get picked up on anything bad unless it becomes unignorable. Come on BBC. But honestly, as much as I want to say this is a good thing for Corbyn, I'd have hoped it would be a lot better after 6 years in opposition.

The BBC's coverage is DESPICABLE.

 

How can we EVER EVER call them unbiased and impartial again?

 

Disgusting.

The Lib Dems have taken control of Watford. The Tories - who won the parliamentary seat last year - have been wiped out. The Lib Dems' seven gains is the most by any party I've noticed in all the results so far, thus underlining how few seats have changed hands.

Email I just got from our MP, perks of being a paid up nationalist, revealed that the SNP won the regional vote in NE Fife suggesting it wasn't so much a revival for the LibDems but a result of a popular and visible leader against a bit of a dull non-entity. The LibDems have traditionally benefited from this very localised effect and it'd be fair to say, given they got 1 list seat and fell to 5th, that this is what happened here again. A bit more of a business as usual election on the constituency side for them but that List vote is still a massive problem.

 

I do like Willie Rennie, I think he's been very likeable through the election, and Liberal Constituency SNP list is how I voted at the last election so for me the result is in line with my preferences for a good local candidate who has our back and a strong SNP block to keep building on the positive journey the country has been on since 2007.

 

The outcome is certainly as a result of the additional member system working properly. The SNP didn't quite hit 50% and correspondingly picked up the right number of seats. We broke the system last time with a strong list vote and other parties have wised up to that strategy allowing the system to naturally correct itself. 63 seats is a great result. 6 Greens is a great result. I think it'll be a great 5 year parliament. We were extremely effective as a minority administration and leading a very strong minority administration will give us a very stable parliament where the government still has a lot of power but with an appropriate amount of checks and balances for a unicameral system that was perhaps missing last time.

 

This time it's the Conservatives who have "broken" the system. They have more seats than their vote share suggests they should (by 3) at Labours expense. However compared to 2011 this isn't too bad.

Gerry Carroll - People Before Profit tops the poll in Republican West Belfast!!

 

I thought you'd be happy about that. No surprise him winning it, but topping the poll was a real surprise. Angry Eamonn looks like he's going to win the Foyle seat as well.

The BBC's coverage is DESPICABLE.

 

How can we EVER EVER call them unbiased and impartial again?

 

Disgusting.

You really can't see the wood for the trees can you?

It had looked as if the London mayoral result might be announced relatively early this year, but apparently there is a discrepancy of some sort, so it will be at the usual time of around midnight. Not that there's any doubt about the result.

Laura Kuenssberg remained her usual biased self on the BBC today I notice - they are becoming a puppet of the government lately. C4 much better news service as always!

You really can't see the wood for the trees can you?

 

And what do you mean by that, sweet summer's child?

Laura Kuenssberg remained her usual biased self on the BBC today I notice - they are becoming a puppet of the government lately. C4 much better news service as always!

 

BBC have always had a fondness for the Tories - but recently that fondness has turned into puppetry.

I think you're possibly comparing apples with pears in terms of measurement - on the metric you're basing this year on (I presume raw vote from all the councils voting), Labour beat the Tories by 2 percent in 2011. I think you're referring to the estimated national vote share for 2011 which they'll have projected from the results. I don't think they'll have worked out for this year yet until all the council results are in.

 

No - they were both measuring the same thing, projected voteshares for the whole of the UK - it's just the 2% Labour lead in 2011 was an earlier estimate, which was later revised to a 1% Tory lead.

 

If the current 1% Labour lead stands, that makes it unequivocal fact that Labour are tracking ahead of their performance at this point in the last parliament.

 

Nonetheless, since 2012 Labour are down 7 points and the Conservatives are down 1. We're at a point of unpopularity for the government on a par with 2012, not 2011, and Labour are still not able to capitalise on that. It's putting a lot of hope on to think things would get more favourable a year down the line after the divisive EU referendum's out of the way.

 

But comparing 2012 to 2016 really is comparing apples with oranges -- governments literally always, ALWAYS, do better in the first set of local elections in an electoral cycle than they do later on. There is ALWAYS somewhat of a lingering honeymoon effect just one year out from a general election, no matter how badly they're messing up (even in 1993, in the immediate wake of Black Wednesday, the Tories did OK-ish in the locals). 2011 is the only like-for-like comparison point for this set of elections

 

Which is not to say Corbyn is on course to win the next general election -- after all, marginally tracking ahead of Ed Miliband is nothing to write home about. But it's still a more appealing prospect than returning to the Blairite "centre ground" course of letting the Tories pass all the cuts they want without a fight and letting them shift the terms of debate endlessly to the right, without even any more chance of election success than Corbyn offers to compensate.

Edited May 6, 20169 yr by Danny

Preaaach, Danny!!