Hi guys,

 

If you're planning on watching the annual return of Top of the Pops tomorrow, this year's thread is found here so you can discuss the performances from the likes of Coldplay, Jess Glynne, Ellie Goulding, Years & Years, Fleur East, Nick Jonas and more. Just notifying any potential watchers as it's found in the UK TV forum rather than here in the Chart forum.

 

Hope you all have a good Christmas! :D

Damn you smelly little toe Froot!!

How r00d. -_-

Here's my trying to predict the #1 with some analysis. It may be a bit off but I love doing these :lol:

 

Digital Sales Data shows 'A Bridge Over You' as selling 21,106 in the past 24 hours. Estimated 30,151 from all retailers. For today/yesterday that's 60,303. On streams it's done 30,680 yesterday. Estimated 920 chart sales for past 3 days (including missing streams from Tuesday)

 

Weekly sales: 62,137+60,303+920=123,360

 

Justin Bieber has done 6,528 on iTunes in the past 24 hours, estimated 9,326 for all retailers and 18,651 for 2 days. Streamswise it has 507,048 streams for yesterday, estimated 724,354 from all retailers, estimated 21,731 chart sales for past 3 days (including missing streams from Tuesday)

 

Weekly sales: 62,799+18,651+21,731=103,181

 

Basically, if Digital Sales Data is accurate and the songs have roughly been selling the same in the past 2 days, it's not even close.

It's a shame we don't get accurate figures for everything updated regularly from OCC - that would really give us more of an idea of the songs and where they stand, but I guess that'd be giving it away :P

Here's my trying to predict the #1 with some analysis. It may be a bit off but I love doing these :lol:

 

Digital Sales Data shows 'A Bridge Over You' as selling 21,106 in the past 24 hours. iTunes has 70% of the digital market share so that's 30,151. For today/yesterday that's 60,303. On streams it's done 30,680 yesterday. Multiplied by 2 for 2 days that's 613 chart sales.

 

Weekly sales: 62,137+60,303+613=123,053

 

Justin Bieber has done 6,528 on iTunes in the past 24 hours, estimated 9,326 for all retailers and 18,651 for 2 days. Streamswise it has 507,048 streams for yesterday, so estimated 10,141 chart sales from streaming for the past 2 days.

 

Weekly sales: 62,799+18,651+10,141=91,591

 

Basically, if Digital Sales Data is accurate and the songs have roughly been selling the same in the past 2 days, it's not even close.

 

But the 507,048 streams is just spotify only. There is also streaming data missing from Wednesdays update potentially another 7k, so I still reckon NHS has it although it's definitely closer than you're making out. Plus without completely ripping your analysis apart streaming last week made up for nearly 65% of all sales of Justin going by yours streaming chart sales are nearly equaling digital sales.

Edited December 24, 20159 yr by Mr. C. Joel

Is the Spotify data actual ones that will count towards the chart or could it be made up of the people that have had it on repeat for hours meaning the actual 'sales' will be less?

But the 507,048 streams is just spotify only. There is also streaming data missing from Wednesdays update potentially another 7k, so I still reckon NHS has it although it's definitely closer than you're making out. Plus without completely ripping your analysis apart streaming last week made up for nearly 65% of all sales of Justin going by yours streaming chart sales are nearly equaling digital sales.

forgot about those.

 

not sure how much of a market share Spotify has but I'll assume it's 70% and edit my post accordingly.

Edited my post now, and it still predicts a big lead for NHS (20k lead)

Shame, but kudos to the choir for gathering enough momentum to sell 60k digital sales over two days by the looks of it. For 2015 those are mega numbers.

Edited my post now, and it still predicts a big lead for NHS (20k lead)

yes that will be the result, maybe a bit more

Agreed look realistic, I blame Chris Evans for me losing £300 it looked a dead cert until he got involved. I've always hated him too, even more so now

How exciting is this! Probably the first time in absolutely ages that chart geeks will be tuning in with no idea how it's going to play out. I love weeks like this and have missed them since joining this site :heehee:

 

Yeh, first time since 2009 I haven't known the Xmas no1 until radio 1 announces it :0

Put £5 on JB just in case he manages to get it - Either way for a total of £30 either winning will get me £100+

forgot about those.

 

not sure how much of a market share Spotify has but I'll assume it's 70% and edit my post accordingly.

 

Good calculation - did you add BOTH versions figs from the digital data?

Damn you smelly little toe Froot!!

 

 

:lol: :lol:

 

SnatchT!!

Agreed look realistic, I blame Chris Evans for me losing £300 it looked a dead cert until he got involved. I've always hated him too, even more so now

 

Theres still a .0001 chance so don't write it off yet ^_^ :lol:

Agreed look realistic, I blame Chris Evans for me losing £300 it looked a dead cert until he got involved. I've always hated him too, even more so now

 

In that case, maybe reserve a bit of your hatred for the guy you placed a bet on for promoting it and giving it a boost too.

Latest update: JB at 0.3168 combined. Nowhere near enough by my calcs - only slightly up on yesterday when the NHS got their mega boost.

My final estimation is 108k for the NHS choir and 100k for Bieber, but the choir could be anywhere between 105-120k and Bieber could be anywhere between 95-102k I reckon. Shame Bieber didn't catch up more quickly today, and fingers crossed next year won't see more choirs and campaigns, but then again Simon Cowell will no doubt be back on form with a much better song for the X Factor winner next year so they could contend again.