Posted June 15, 20169 yr This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be. 1. The percentages for Leave/Remain 2. The turnout
June 15, 20169 yr Author My prediction : Leave 51% Remain 49% (though with significant regional variations) Turnout 70%
June 15, 20169 yr Author This is not intended as a thread to discuss the pros & cons, but simply to post what you think the result will be. 1. The percentages for Leave/Remain 2. The turnout BTW, a year ago I expected that the result would be something like 60/40 in favour of Remain...
June 15, 20169 yr I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%.
June 15, 20169 yr Author I think it's going to be damn near 50/50 at this point, which is quite terrifying really. For the sake of simplicity I will go with 51% Remain, 49% Leave and turnout around 65%. One thing's for sure, if the result is very close either way, the issue is just going to rumble on (not to mention the inevitable accusations of vote-rigging). :no:
June 15, 20169 yr Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in. It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now :(
June 15, 20169 yr Author Definitely not as confident as before, but I'll say Remain will just about win with 53-47, with around a 65% turnout. Wouldn't be surprised if England voted Leave and it's Scotland/Ireland that just keep us in. It actually makes me sick to the stomach that Leave is a serious possibility now :( Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... :teresa: Edited June 15, 20169 yr by vidcapper
June 15, 20169 yr My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout.
June 15, 20169 yr Author My most pessimistic expection would be 54% Leave, 46% Remain, but more realistically I'd say something among the lines of 52% Remain, 48% Leave on a 73% turnout. I never thought of giving a range! :o In that case I would say 48-52% either way (I hope there aren't splinters in the fence I am sitting on there... :lol: )
June 15, 20169 yr Whereas I'd be breaking out the champagne... :teresa: surely that would be an EU import :P Leave 52% Remain 48% Even amongst recent immigrants there is strong racism against the former communist bloc. Reasoned arguments have no effect on emotional bias. GHUA.
June 15, 20169 yr Going to go with 53-47 to Remain with about a 65% turnout (which is more or less what it was at the last election I think?) which to my mind is waaaaay too close for comfort.
June 15, 20169 yr Interesting how the turnout is varying so much. I'd call it at about mid-60s myself given you'd be hard pressed to go much higher than that but it'll most likely be a referendum that gets a rather high turnout given its importance. I'd probably call the same as most of you, I have 50-50 stuck in my mind though, which would be awkward for all as it means the issue wouldn't even have the decency to get put to rest (not that I'd want it to get put to rest if it were Leave winning but I'd rather just be cutting ties with the people who took my EU citizenship from me rather than arguing more with them at that point).
June 15, 20169 yr I was fairly confident in a 55-45 Remain result up until the last week or so. I HOPE I'm wrong, I really do, but as awful and muddled as this has all been it just seems like Leave has been able to cut through the BS a bit more effectively to pull it dangerously close.
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