A 50% opinion poll for the Conservatives means jack all when it's 7 weeks away from the General Election. Of course, in some ways having such a big lead this early on could even be harmful, because a) It means that many Conservative supporters decide not to campaign as hard as they think a Tory landslide is a foregone conclusion, or even decide not to vote at all as there's no point, and b) a 50% Tory lead will give passive supporters of the other parties who hadn't campaigned actively before a metaphorical boot up the arse and convince them to start becoming more active in helping their own party & candidate win.

 

Even so, at this point a Conservative majority can almost certainly be taken as a given. I have absolutely no faith in the persuasion skills of the other parties to convince and connect with large swaths of those who are going to vote Conservative. (*Insert my usual plug for The Righteous Mind here*).

 

An interesting aspect of the most recent opinion polls is seeing the absolute decimation of Ukip, now polling regularly at under 10% for the first time in a few years. As expected, without EU to rally against they really don't have much of a purpose, and although as I predicted there are now morphing into a "Hard right" English nationalist party post-Brexit, it doesn't seem to have had any impact on the polls.

I suppose because it's just another of loser Jezza's daft policy idea that he'll never get to implement. I do think we should have one more, on June 23rd, UK Independance Day.

 

So having the four national Saint's days as bank holidays is a daft idea, but having a bank holiday for Brexit isn't a daft idea? I don't get the logic. :huh:

An interesting aspect of the most recent opinion polls is seeing the absolute decimation of Ukip, now polling regularly at under 10% for the first time in a few years. As expected, without EU to rally against they really don't have much of a purpose, and although as I predicted there are now morphing into a "Hard right" English nationalist party post-Brexit, it doesn't seem to have had any impact on the polls.

 

Good point, the last time in any poll UKIP surveyed >15% was 30th June 2016. There has therefore been a definite slump since that point to levels not seen since early 2013, most of which appears to have drifted to the Conservatives (unsurprisingly). I would guess that the increase in Lib Dem support, who now average consistently over 10% for the first time since late 2010, has come from both Labour and Conservative voters equally.

So having the four national Saint's days as bank holidays is a daft idea, but having a bank holiday for Brexit isn't a daft idea? I don't get the logic. :huh:

The principal of extra bank holidays is fine - we have fewer than any other western democracy. However, if the saints' days are chosen, three of them would be in March and April when we already have two for Easter with two in May to follow.

The principal of extra bank holidays is fine - we have fewer than any other western democracy. However, if the saints' days are chosen, three of them would be in March and April when we already have two for Easter with two in May to follow.

 

Well then that eliminates my back-up choice if they decide to go down that route, as my next favourite British saint's day, the Venerable Bede, would be May 25th. I'd also be in favour of giving us a Bank Holiday on the feast of St Therese of Lisieux on 1st October (as we used to get in my primary school, as our school was named after her), but I very much doubt the English would be in favour of naming a holiday after a post-16th Century French Catholic saint.

So having the four national Saint's days as bank holidays is a daft idea, but having a bank holiday for Brexit isn't a daft idea? I don't get the logic. :huh:

Purely to provoke responses!

Vince Cable has encouraged the local Lib Dem party in Brighton Pavillion not to put up a candidate against Caroline Lucas. He has been backed by at least one other former Lib Dem MP.

Indeed. The Tory manifest will be their most right-wing ever.

 

I take it you don't remember the Thatcher era then? :P

 

 

Nothing says 'courage' like calling a general election when you have a 20 point lead in the polls.

 

More sensible than doing it from 20 points *behind*, though...

 

Given that the SNP won all but three Scottish seats last time, there is not a lot of scope for them to make any gains. Even if they lose the odd seat, they will still be the largest party in Scotland by a very long way.

 

True, but any decline will undermine 'wee jimmys' call for a 2nd independence referendum...

 

back of a fag packet prediction:

 

CON 410

LAB 130

SNP 52

LD 35

NI 18

PC 5

GRN 2

UKIP 0

 

I can't see Labour doing *that* badly - they managed 209 seats even under Michael Foot in 1983!

 

WE. HAVE. NOT. LEFT. THE. EUROPEAN. UNION. YET.

 

That would be the 'collapse' that was supposed to happen the day after the referendum - but didn't happen...

Then it was supposed to happen the day after Article 50 was triggered - but didn't happen...

 

:rolleyes:

 

Up 2% today is absolutely nothing compared to the 30%+ it's down in the past 12 months. I mean you can cling to this all you want but you're just rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic.

 

The continued steady performance of the economy since Jun 23rd, proves that the drop in the £ has no great significance.

I take it you don't remember the Thatcher era then? :P

I remember the Thatcher years very well. I still stand by my earlier statement.

Plot twist: Peacemob makes a post that doesn't contain 'Liberal Left'

 

I now see why posters here think I would have an affinity towards 'Peacemob'. :P

 

An interesting aspect of the most recent opinion polls is seeing the absolute decimation of Ukip, now polling regularly at under 10% for the first time in a few years. As expected, without EU to rally against they really don't have much of a purpose, and although as I predicted there are now morphing into a "Hard right" English nationalist party post-Brexit, it doesn't seem to have had any impact on the polls.

 

I think 'decimation' is rather harsh - after all, they've been more successful at achieving their goal than almost any other political party I can think of! I don't agree with the 'morphing into a hard-right party' notion though - they could not retain anything like this level of support if they were.

 

I remember the Thatcher years very well. I still stand by my earlier statement.

 

You must be a very well-preserved 'eight years old' then. :P

Edited April 24, 20178 yr by vidcapper

I suppose because it's just another of loser Jezza's daft policy idea that he'll never get to implement. I do think we should have one more, on June 23rd, UK Independance Day.

Why not have a bit of respect and go for Armistice Day instead?

I can't see Labour doing *that* badly - they managed 209 seats even under Michael Foot in 1983!

Loyalty amongst the traditional Labour core vote was infinitely higher in 1983 - the dynamics are completely different now. Aside from union membership being a shadow of what it used to be 30 years ago, plenty of lifelong (former union!) voters who voted Leave and despise Corbyn will be open to Theresa May in a way they never were to Thatcher.

That would be the 'collapse' that was supposed to happen the day after the referendum - but didn't happen...

 

:rolleyes:

It did happen - or rather, the mechanics that would've led to a collapse if nothing had been done about it happened. Mark Carney went out the morning after the result and announced he'd pump £70bn into the British economy to halt a collapse - the fact you didn't notice a big burst in money supply-driven inflation in the six months after is the hint that it was plugging a hole rather than being applied to something that had no economic effects.

 

The continued steady performance of the economy since Jun 23rd, proves that the drop in the £ has no great significance.

Have you not noticed the increase in the price of the weekly shop? One argument is that Theresa May's gone for it now because that's the kind of thing that's really going to start biting over the next year.

Why is no-one here talking about Labour to introduce 4 new bank holidays?

 

Social media seems to have gone pretty wild for it.

 

Well everybody gets one paid days leave extra, shock horror bribe!

 

except those on zero hours and other rubbish contracts.....

 

Not convinced it will have that much of an effect, wages are more important to most people.

One of the many casualties of the snap election is local party democracy. Local parties have delayed selecting candidates, partly because of the impending boundary changes and also because they thought there was not necessarily any rush. Now both Labour and Tories will be doing a lot of the work at party headquarters rather than letting the local parties take the lead. The Tories will be imposing shortlists on local parties for target seats (including seats they already hold where the MP is stepping down) and imposing candidates on the remaining seats. Labour will be selecting all candidates centrally. The likely outcome is that there will be fewer MPs with a proper local connection and fewer MPs prepared to vote against their party.

 

The Lib Dems have already selected candidates for well over half of the constituencies and are aiming to select the rest in the usual way, allowing local parties maximum autonomy.

 

...or maybe Tories and Labour will field candidates reflecting the views of each leader making them even more extreme, and May will end up in a worse position in terms of being able to be flexible if they are all ardent hard Brexiteers (the whispers are she needs a way of backtracking a tad to get an EU deal which her own party will cause trouble about, rather than the opposition she claims)

 

Good ol Lib Dems, Democracy still hanging on somewhere in the world...!

It did happen - or rather, the mechanics that would've led to a collapse if nothing had been done about it happened. Mark Carney went out the morning after the result and announced he'd pump £70bn into the British economy to halt a collapse - the fact you didn't notice a big burst in money supply-driven inflation in the six months after is the hint that it was plugging a hole rather than being applied to something that had no economic effects.

Have you not noticed the increase in the price of the weekly shop? One argument is that Theresa May's gone for it now because that's the kind of thing that's really going to start biting over the next year.

 

This.

 

Brexiteers have a very big problem with observable facts and proof.

 

Cause and Effect.

 

It's almost like they make up their mind about something and then try desperately to look for anything at all to support that view - and when they can't they just make general bland statements which are nothing more than "opinion" based on nothing. And like Trumpism, when that doesn't work, start using lies. I refer everyone to the list of Brexit Promises, all of which are looking increasingly like being a 100% Lie, already at around 60% or so - and with 2 years to go still before we leave with no deal.

 

No comments please Brexiteers, May has already said trade deals won't be done in 2 years (cos that was a LIE).

 

 

 

 

 

Well everybody gets one paid days leave extra, shock horror bribe!

 

except those on zero hours and other rubbish contracts.....

 

Not convinced it will have that much of an effect, wages are more important to most people.

Four paid days. As it goes, it's pretty much the only policy I've ever seen Labour announce that has had remotely any attention from apolitical friends of mine.

Edited April 24, 20178 yr by Qassändra

Actually everyone gets 3 because St Andrews day is already a public holiday in Scotland. The majority will get 4

 

#pedantic