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Turnout 20 members have voted

  1. 1. What will the turnout be?

    • <64%
      5
    • 64-65%
      1
    • 66-67%
      3
    • 68-69%
      3
    • 70-71%
      7
    • 72-73%
      0
    • 74-75%
      1
    • 76%+
      0

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Posted

What do you think it'll be?

 

NB it was 66.1% in 2015, and 72.2% for the Referendum.

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I would've predicted an awful turnout at the start of the campaign, but I think renewed interest in Labour will persuade more people to vote as it's closer than originally thought. I think we could match 2015!
Dunno how accurate, bu some internet sites reporting huge queues across the country and especially in London.
I assume that's in strong labour areas by what I read - only Mike Smithson stated they were big ques all the rest are pro Corbynites!
Now I REAALLY don't know if this is true, but a couple articles by fellow Corbynistas said there are reports of Tory voters avoiding eye contact with NHS staff in the queues :lol:

Edited by Willy's Tears

I really don't know. I think there's certainly a lot more energy around this campaign than I thought there'd be but I just can't shake the feeling that most people will be a bit fatigued with voting (especially so in Scotland at this point) so I'd guess around 60-62%
  • Author
ISTM a higher turnout would help Labour, as it would presumably mean the younger generation had voted in numbers for once... ;)

I'd expect 62-64% but I could be way off.

 

Lord Ashcroft thinks that a high turnout favours Labour rather than the Tories. I would have expected it to be the other way round. Does anyone know wtf is going on?

Edited by Harve

Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.
  • Author
ISTM a higher turnout would help Labour, as it would presumably mean the younger generation had voted in numbers for once... ;)

 

Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.

 

Historically, a higher turnout has tended to favour Labour. Tory supporters tend to be more likely to vote.

 

Hey, something we all agree on, at last! :)

Larger turnouts always favour the left wing, especially as it usually means more younger peple voted. The grey vote ALWAYS turns out.

Ah, you're right actually!

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