On a 52/48 2/2 +Gibraltar split there isn't much strength behind Brexit, so that's kind of all there is - remain or stay in customs union.

I would have accepted the result as the Will of the People - but IMO that's a separate matter from believing it would be wrong not to seek to reverse it at a later date.

 

My believing our continuing membership of the EU would be a mistake, is independent of how everyone else decided.

 

so you accept the result at the moment of the referendum but still would have wanted another. In what way is that any different from what Remainers are saying....?

Vidcapper - How do you expect us to take you and your position seriously when you literally ignore every counter-point!? This isn't a debate, you're just running around with your fingers in your ears screaming inane drivel and conspiracy theories. Then mouthing off about being the contrarian and your POV not being taken seriously and people just being against you because you hold a view that is against the masses. Nah fam, it's because you don't answer a question, you don't respond to facts or counter-points, you throw straw-mans and duck and dive and answer questions not asked or bring up some completely unrelated topic. You want some respectful dialogue then engage us in actual debate with facts and real sources.

 

Prime example is the unanswered post below:

 

Why do breiteers overlook the really basic flaws in the only economic model that fits their ideology? Got to be the confirmation bias you were accusing us of yeah?

 

This fails basic logical reasoning on so many levels and that’s before you consider economic facts and geopolitical realities.

 

Couple of things that need explained. First of all is where the £180bn comes from. What’s it made up of and what does it actually entail.

 

The bulk of the number though is the £433bn tariff that EU business will pay on trade to the UK. I don’t question this amount, the value of trade is staggering. What I question is the lack of tariff payment going in reverse. To reach the figures in question it assumes that we will impose tariffs on EU goods and services inbound to the UK but the EU will waive tariffs on UK goods and services inbound to the EU. I struggle to understand how anyone could have read this and published it without confirmation bias coming into play. Because that assumption is not only defying basic economic and logic principles but goes against literally every single message coming out of Europe. There is no reason the EU would waive tariffs on our imports. We don’t make anything they can’t make themselves. There’s not a single car manufacturer based in the UK that couldn’t produce on the continent instead. The major producers are all EU owned anyway (including Nissan in that as they are 43% owned by Renault who are 19% owned by the French Government and you can damn well bet they’ll put the pressure on to repatriate production to France)

 

Like there’s nothing that’s vital to the EU economy that they would unilaterally waive tariffs. So for this model to be accurate it needs to model the impact on tariffs payable to the EU. It also should model the impact on complying with the new tariffs and customs borders. Currently no customs declaration needs to be made on cross channel movements but they will when we leave. Actual real business pay £25-£40 per declaration currently. Thats a huge cost to both economies.

 

There is no calculation of the loss of ERDF for the UK or the benefit of redistribution of that within the EU. No talk of loss of Horizon 2020 cash that will stay within the EU (the UK gets about a 1.5 return on that cash. It’s remarkable value for money and very heavily monitored. In all my time in research grant administration, EU grants were the most heavily scrutinised and audited by the funder. Lots of hoops for us to jump through but huge funding levels for highly important research on a pan-EU Level that returned fabulous value for money to the EC. One of the EUs crowning achievements)

 

Basically it is my professional view as a qualified accountant working for a big 4 firm that this model is overly simplistic, provides no evidence to support its figures or assumptions, makes unrealistic assumptions that underpin the entire model and that as a result the output is fundamentally flawed.

 

IMO no one wins from the mess. Both sides lose economically but given the strength of the bloc they are *based on economic facts and economic reality* most likely to recover quicker and stronger. The internal market operates in such a way that trade with the UK can simply be replaced by intra EU trading.

so you accept the result at the moment of the referendum but still would have wanted another. In what way is that any different from what Remainers are saying....?

 

1. I wouldn't suggest another referendum happen within a year or two of the last.

 

2. I wouldn't treat my opponents arguments like they were something the cat dragged in.

Vidcapper - How do you expect us to take you and your position seriously when you literally ignore every counter-point!? This isn't a debate, you're just running around with your fingers in your ears screaming inane drivel and conspiracy theories.

 

I do not - I always endeavor to answer politely & rationally

 

Then mouthing off about being the contrarian and your POV not being taken seriously and people just being against you because you hold a view that is against the masses. Nah fam, it's because you don't answer a question, you don't respond to facts or counter-points, you throw straw-mans and duck and dive and answer questions not asked or bring up some completely unrelated topic. You want some respectful dialogue then engage us in actual debate with facts and real sources.

 

I must point out that I have *tried* debating your way, to no avail.

 

1. I wouldn't suggest another referendum happen within a year or two of the last.

 

2. I wouldn't treat my opponents arguments like they were something the cat dragged in.

 

1. There wouldnt be a need to have another referendum within a year or two if nothing was affected by the result, but you still would have wanted another go at changing it, so all you are arguing about is the length of time not the principle.

 

2. Nobody is accusing YOU of treating anyone like anything, but Remainers get slagged off all the time (and called traitors or worse) while Leavers get called stupid and racist. Plenty of insults from both sides I'd say so as a comment it's the kettle calling the frying pan - except that the Remain side is more sensible and fact-based, and the Leave side is more pie in the sky and faith-based and blind to facts of life that will have to be dealt with.

1. There wouldnt be a need to have another referendum within a year or two if nothing was affected by the result, but you still would have wanted another go at changing it, so all you are arguing about is the length of time not the principle.

 

2. Nobody is accusing YOU of treating anyone like anything, but Remainers get slagged off all the time (and called traitors or worse) while Leavers get called stupid and racist. Plenty of insults from both sides I'd say so as a comment it's the kettle calling the frying pan - except that the Remain side is more sensible and fact-based, and the Leave side is more pie in the sky and faith-based and blind to facts of life that will have to be dealt with.

 

1. Correct.

 

2. I doubt if emphasizing how difficult the transition might be, would have done the Remain campaign any good if they'd concentrated more on it during the campaign, since very few people voted based on potential administrative difficulties.

1. Correct.

 

2. I doubt if emphasizing how difficult the transition might be, would have done the Remain campaign any good if they'd concentrated more on it during the campaign, since very few people voted based on potential administrative difficulties.

 

"administrative difficulties" is a euphemism for "very bad deal which will leave us much poorer as a nation". Had the Leave campaign concentrated on telling the truth instead of lies then very much fewer people would have voted to Leave. You dont speak for everyone who voted to leave, as i have pointed out ad nauseum, and many were convinced by the promises made. Take away those promises they would have voted the other way.

 

This is, of course, nothing to do with my point about both sides slagging off the other (so you don't get to play the victim while prominent Remainers continue to get death threats)....

"administrative difficulties" is a euphemism for "very bad deal which will leave us much poorer as a nation". Had the Leave campaign concentrated on telling the truth instead of lies then very much fewer people would have voted to Leave. You dont speak for everyone who voted to leave, as i have pointed out ad nauseum, and many were convinced by the promises made. Take away those promises they would have voted the other way.

 

I believe you over-estimate that effect - IMO many Leavers just saw them as a means to an end. They were looking for any excuse to vote out, and would jump on any reason, no matter what the basis.

 

This is, of course, nothing to do with my point about both sides slagging off the other (so you don't get to play the victim while prominent Remainers continue to get death threats)....

 

You do realise that they are far from alone in that - Farage has also been threatened.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/nigel...y-a3288301.html

 

 

I believe you over-estimate that effect - IMO many Leavers just saw them as a means to an end. They were looking for any excuse to vote out, and would jump on any reason, no matter what the basis.

You do realise that they are far from alone in that - Farage has also been threatened.

 

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/nigel...y-a3288301.html

 

1. No they didn't and you have no proof that is not the truth. I have hearsay from talking to people. You clearly don't talk to real people.

 

2. Yes I do. "Boo hoo I got threatened having not been the slightest bothered about Jo Cox getting murdered or judges or MPs getting death threats"

 

What goes around comes around....

 

PS both these topics have been discussed at length previously. I don't need to check back, or google. I use my memory. Repeating the same things over and over doesn't change the answers to them, it just makes you look forgetful, hopefully not from advancing in years.

A 52/48 split on one day shows that the lies swung it.

 

The result is inconclusive at best.

on a different Brexit topic, for a change, McVities have announced smaller biscuits due to the impact of the weaker pound and rising export cost, and the Brexiter twitterverse has denounced them as lying thieves, more or less. I'm not quite sure how any sane person who actually buys food at supermarkets, or any goods anywhere, could have failed to notice that things cost more than they did before the summer of 2016, and have continued to remain more expensive and it has worsened and finally fed through to all goods, including food, so no-one can pretend Brexit has had no impact.

 

yet the deluded fanatics seem to fail to understand basic cause and effect and do pretend.....so the question is, are they liars or are they stupid? I mean, it's basic Duuuuuuuuuh blatantly obviously the result, as it has always been throughout history when a currency drops against others.....

Basic human psychology: unable or unwilling to accept they made a bad decision, and so deny that their vote had anything to do with it. A bit like how Trumpeteers even today cannot accept that the shutdown is Republican not Democrat.

The £ has actually increased by 14% since February 2017, it is also now only around 6-6.5% off the value it was before the referendum on 22nd June 2016.

 

I think there is an element of blaming Brexit and using that to bring down costs and try to squeeze out a bit more profit, and arguably smaller biscuits are a good solution to the obesity epidemic in the country. :P

The £ has actually increased by 14% since February 2017, it is also now only around 6-6.5% off the value it was before the referendum on 22nd June 2016.

 

I think there is an element of blaming Brexit and using that to bring down costs and try to squeeze out a bit more profit, and arguably smaller biscuits are a good solution to the obesity epidemic in the country. :P

 

inflation however has meant the 2 years of price rises is built into the overall picture given there have been wage cuts during that period in real terms. Whichever way you look at it most of us are worse off. I know I am.

 

smaller portions don't work though - people just eat more! As my hungry friends tell me... :D

2. Yes I do. "Boo hoo I got threatened having not been the slightest bothered about Jo Cox getting murdered or judges or MPs getting death threats"

 

What goes around comes around....

 

Surely death threats are wrong, whoever they are made against? You seem to be suggesting that they are OK against Farage, simply because he didn't wear a hairshirt over Jo Cox's death? :unsure:

 

 

A 52/48 split on one day shows that the lies swung it.

 

The result is inconclusive at best.

 

The result was narrow, but not inconclusive.

 

 

yet the deluded fanatics seem to fail to understand basic cause and effect and do pretend.....so the question is, are they liars or are they stupid? I mean, it's basic Duuuuuuuuuh blatantly obviously the result, as it has always been throughout history when a currency drops against others.....

 

There would have been inflation even without the Brexit vote - ISTM there's no way to determine how much extra is due to it, though?

 

In any case - as I've said before, for someone who grew up in an era where inflation frequently exceeded 10%, 3% is utterly insignificant.

 

 

Basic human psychology: unable or unwilling to accept they made a bad decision, and so deny that their vote had anything to do with it. A bit like how Trumpeteers even today cannot accept that the shutdown is Republican not Democrat.

 

Only the losing side are claiming Leavers made a bad decision. :rolleyes:

 

Surely death threats are wrong, whoever they are made against? You seem to be suggesting that they are OK against Farage, simply because he didn't wear a hairshirt over Jo Cox's death? :unsure:

The result was narrow, but not inconclusive.

There would have been inflation even without the Brexit vote - ISTM there's no way to determine how much extra is due to it, though?

 

In any case - as I've said before, for someone who grew up in an era where inflation frequently exceeded 10%, 3% is utterly insignificant.

Only the losing side are claiming Leavers made a bad decision. :rolleyes:

 

1. I never said death threats are OK, never have, never will. I'm saying my sympathy for Farage getting death threats is more along the lines of poetic justice when he has no sympathy for people he sees as "enemies" (they aren't) get murdered or receive death threats. If you think it's fine for some people to be murdered or get death threats then one shouldn't expect any sympathy whatosever when you get them. It's very easy when you are constantly on TV to express sympathy for someone recently murdered, to call it evil, and to try and calm down death threats against others. Takes LITERALLY less than 30 seconds out of your life. He never has. Why should anyone else do it for him? By the way the latest suggestions that he visited Assange is to deliver a file of data useful to the Russians and Trump, from America. If true, that makes him worse than I already think he is, it makes him a spy working for the wrong side.

 

He still hasn't explained why he visited and insisted no-one be in the room at the same time, immediately after he had been to see Trump.

 

2. yawn. Record on repeat.

 

3. Bollocks. With respect. The pound plummeted. There is no way that would have happened with a Remain result. That had an immediate impact, factually back-up-able. Claiming that it would have happened anyway is living in cuckoo-land, typical Leaver attempts to make the result seem blameless. As someone who grew up in an era when 10-20% inflation was rife, I can also say it's not insignificant. Young people were trapped in negative equity for a decade or more, unemployment was in the millions, jobs were scarce, and a whole generation lost opportunites, others struggled as wages declined against inflation.

 

Rose-tinted specs as usual from you. Being young and fit and happy does not mean it's the same for everyone else. If it was so insignificant then all economies would be rushing to get inflation - it's easy to produce - as a means of a viable way of life. They don't.

 

4. No, people throughout the world are claiming it was a bad decision......the only ones who don't think it is are racist, fascist, or far-right organisations elsewhere, and those who voted for it (not the majority of the British population), and rich people who can screw us all as a consequence in their tax havens.

 

PS all of these topics are essentially repeat topics from you that have already been answered. I am getting worried about your memory....

1. I never said death threats are OK, never have, never will. I'm saying my sympathy for Farage getting death threats is more along the lines of poetic justice when he has no sympathy for people he sees as "enemies" (they aren't) get murdered or receive death threats. If you think it's fine for some people to be murdered or get death threats then one shouldn't expect any sympathy whatosever when you get them. It's very easy when you are constantly on TV to express sympathy for someone recently murdered, to call it evil, and to try and calm down death threats against others. Takes LITERALLY less than 30 seconds out of your life. He never has. Why should anyone else do it for him? By the way the latest suggestions that he visited Assange is to deliver a file of data useful to the Russians and Trump, from America. If true, that makes him worse than I already think he is, it makes him a spy working for the wrong side.

 

He still hasn't explained why he visited and insisted no-one be in the room at the same time, immediately after he had been to see Trump.

 

2. yawn. Record on repeat.

 

3. Bollocks. With respect. The pound plummeted. There is no way that would have happened with a Remain result. That had an immediate impact, factually back-up-able. Claiming that it would have happened anyway is living in cuckoo-land, typical Leaver attempts to make the result seem blameless. As someone who grew up in an era when 10-20% inflation was rife, I can also say it's not insignificant. Young people were trapped in negative equity for a decade or more, unemployment was in the millions, jobs were scarce, and a whole generation lost opportunites, others struggled as wages declined against inflation.

 

Rose-tinted specs as usual from you. Being young and fit and happy does not mean it's the same for everyone else. If it was so insignificant then all economies would be rushing to get inflation - it's easy to produce - as a means of a viable way of life. They don't.

 

4. No, people throughout the world are claiming it was a bad decision......the only ones who don't think it is are racist, fascist, or far-right organisations elsewhere, and those who voted for it (not the majority of the British population), and rich people who can screw us all as a consequence in their tax havens.

 

PS all of these topics are essentially repeat topics from you that have already been answered. I am getting worried about your memory....

 

1. I suspect if Farage had expressed sympathy, Remainers would just accuse him of being insincere.

 

2. It's not *me* who keeping banging on about 2/4 and close margins

 

3. Yet *again* you deliberately misinterpret me! You know PERFECTLY BLOODY WELL I wasn't suggesting that a change in FX rates wouldn't cause inflation - I was merely pointing out that inflation is a constant, and that the proportion due to to Brexit is unknown.

 

4. It was *our* decision - if it turns out to be a poor choice, then so be it - but for me it was never about economics.

 

5. It's not *my* memory at fault - only the Remainers here seem to forget what the result of the referendum was.

Our decision

 

Whose?

 

52% not bloody 100% and only half the nations. It is disputed. It is inconclusive. The Leavers and press have put their bully boy caps on and tried to convince us that it's 100% in order to gain legitimacy for that awful, ON ONE DAY, vote.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/907719/Ma...t-Brussels-Marr