That doesn't make sense - in 2017 the Tories were only a few short of a majority on a lead of just 2.5% - just a 1% greater swing and they'd have had 19 more seats - giving a majority of 24...

 

 

Well it's not my calculation.

How about we just take your opinion on the Tories as read, to save you repeatedly posting it many times a day. :rolleyes:

 

Can;t we do the same about your views and can save you posting too ;)

Well it's not my calculation.

 

I'd imagine the figure has been factchecked by the Tories :P

Vidcapper's numbers are always wildly ameliorated towards the Tories.

AND labour were 2000 votes shy of an overall majority in 2017 too :) How on earth you can call the evil vile Tories the lesser of two evils is just BEYOND ME. They are evil, privatising the nhs, lying at every turn and Bojo thinks he was born to rule!! URGH.

Was it not 2000 votes shy of being able to form a majority gov with the backing of the SNP, PC, Greens and the lib dems thus forming a grand rainbow coalition?

Was it not 2000 votes shy of being able to form a majority gov with the backing of the SNP, PC, Greens and the lib dems thus forming a grand rainbow coalition?

 

Yes, as rhey werw 2k votes away from denying Tories enough seats to stop them joining with the DUP.

Interesting that the polls are showing such low young voter turn outs and such high old people turn outs, especially among disgruntled Brexshit Patty voters furious at Bojo and Fatage, when 1.37 MILLION young votwrs have registered already. At this point in 2017, when the polls also underestimated them, it was half that! However they recently ruened away 100s of young people from a polling station in Chesshire. This is what they did in 2017. VILE. One party state dystopia.

Not until you admit they are far, FAR worse than Labour and Bojo is far, FAR worse thsn the statesman Corbyn :) It's veeery telling you've never criticised the Tories under Mad May or Bojo the Clown. I have criticised Corbyn and Labour more than you have the Tories!! I criticised him over the winter election and you RAN into the thread to try and score some points on it. Have you nothing bad at all to say aboot the worst political party in the modern world after the Republicans??

 

At the end of the day, what I think really doesn't matter - what the electorate as a whole thinks of the Tories will be revealed after 12th Dec.

 

Vidcapper's numbers are always wildly ameliorated towards the Tories.

 

You just screwed yourself again! :lol:

 

I used the official election results from 2017 to make my calculation - you know, the same ones you use to claim Labour were just 2k away from forming a majority that year... :P

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/general-election-2019

 

Voting intention: CON 44% LAB 28% LD 16% BXP 3% GRN 3% (15-19 November)

 

This was the poll I contributed to.

That's quite a few polls now with double-digit leads for the Conservatives..

 

Of course the efficiency and distribution of those votes will be crucial, however hard to see anything other than a Conservative majority (though perhaps quite small like in 2015) at the moment.

How many seats do we think the Lib-Dems may get? Some people on Digital Spy are thinking 40 to 50 more seats but today polling expert John Curtice thinks people are over-estimating how well they'll do and predicts that they'll get a shock with them getting a lot more votes than 2017 but picking up just 6 more seats. :o

 

I'll say 15 more seats then. Go on, make a guess.

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by common sense

How many seats do we think the Lib-Dems may get? Some people on Digital Spy are thinking 40 to 50 more seats but today polling expert John Curtice thinks people are over-estimating how well they'll do and predicts that they'll get a shock with them picking up just 6 more seats.

 

I'd be surprised if they gain much more than that.

Pfft. Profiled poll with heavily adjusted age ranges. Why are we even posting these sham polls of this sham election anyway?

I'd be surprised if they gain much more than that.

 

 

Really? Jo will be upset. John Curtice says he thinks they'll pile the votes up in many seats but still not take the seat. He thinks talk of them getting 50 more seats is "ludicrous" Was on Sky News earlier.

 

In fact Labour think they'll hold Sheffield Hallam which the LD want back. Clegg's old seat.

Edited November 21, 20195 yr by common sense

The Lib Dems could quite easily be squeezed and end up with just 20-25 (slightly up) - they had a 1% vote share increase in 2010 but went down about 5 MPs and yet in 2017 they went down by 0.4% and gained about 4 seats.. however they are forecast to double their previous polling in 2017 so should theoretically achieve a notable increase.

Really? Jo will be upset. John Curtice says he thinks they'll pile the votes up in many seats but still not take the seat. He thinks talk of them getting 50 more seats is "ludicrous" Was on Sky News earlier.

 

In fact Labour think they'll hold Sheffield Hallam which the LD want back. Clegg's old seat.

Why would Labour say anything else?

:lol: I think the chances of Labour holding Sheffield Hallam are fairly low, should be an easy Lib Dem gain IMO.

 

EC agrees: https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bi...heffield+Hallam

Most people who voted remain now want Brexit done as Boris is saying so will ignore the Lib Dems pro remain position imo!

Most people who voted remain now want Brexit done as Boris is saying so will ignore the Lib Dems pro remain position imo!

 

100% FALSE!!!!

We shall see how the Lib Dems do then my friend.