Yeah that estimated turnout seems a little odd; given the times, why would the youth vote drop by over 25%? If anything they've got more to vote for/ against now than they did in 2017.

 

Also the time of year may well put off older voters who don't want to go out in the cold, yet apparently they're's going to be an increase?

 

Really given how wrong the polls were last year, they're a bit meaningless these days it seems

Seeing their methodology basically just confirms how fake they are to me :rofl:

Kantar's methodology seems a bit off IMO though. 90% turnout among over 65s!? Seriously.. ? You can manipulate the polls to say whatever you want really, though the trends are the thing that is most important and they point to a small (narrow) Conservative majority at the moment.

 

 

And only 31% turnout for the 18-24s? I very much doubt such a sharp drop in turnout compared to 2017. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see turnout among 18-24 years old be similar or a bit higher. It's no wonder polls show such a large Tory lead if they're all estimating such a low turnout for the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets. We've still got another few weeks or so of campagining left, as well as the debates. It'll be interesting to see how much more labour can gain and if the conservatives begin to start losing ground in the polls.

Here is the Kantar poll with 2017 voter turnout applied.

 

@1195865184293793793

The Tories and their brainwashing media have reaaaally done a number on people's brains. Aside from the fact they are a morally repgunant party that exists to protect and expand the wealth of the rich and trample the poor and middle classes, once they get in power, they are pervasive and refuse to leave. For that reason they should neeever eeever be allowed to get their claws into power. They never let go. Authoritarian TURDS!!!!

The other interesting point is that there have been over 1 million applications to register to vote from people aged 34 and younger since the election announcement. I do think that this election is going to be much closer than polls are suggesting.

The other interesting point is that there have been over 1 million applications to register to vote from people aged 34 and younger since the election announcement. I do think that this election is going to be much closer than polls are suggesting.

 

Yes I thought that too; the biggest number of those who have registered to vote are the ones who are meant to have the biggest drop - which is a bizarre correlation as if you register at this late stage you're gonna vote as its on your radar

Really odd. From a brief glance at Twitter it seems as though Deltapoll and Yougov also have problems with assigning greater weight to older voters.

 

Leading thing against that would be that it is harder to recruit older voters to an online panel so the natural thing is to upweight them but if those are indeed the turnout figures they are working off that looks ridiculous.

And only 31% turnout for the 18-24s? I very much doubt such a sharp drop in turnout compared to 2017. If anything, I wouldn't be surprised to see turnout among 18-24 years old be similar or a bit higher. It's no wonder polls show such a large Tory lead if they're all estimating such a low turnout for the 18-24 and 25-34 age brackets. We've still got another few weeks or so of campagining left, as well as the debates. It'll be interesting to see how much more labour can gain and if the conservatives begin to start losing ground in the polls.

 

What is the source for Kantar's claimed age weighting - as I simply don't believe they would use such flawed estimates?

 

Also, even if that is the weighting they've been using, to assume other companies must be using similarly flawed assumptions is just... nuts!

 

 

Fake polls wanting to set a Tory loving narrative.

Fake polls wanting to set a Tory loving narrative.

 

You do realise that this obsession you have about the Tories merely provides us with much amusement, and no-one takes your seriously any more? :rolleyes:

https://evolvepolitics.com/if-you-knew-the-...Gkz0uIb-iUBpc2I

 

This, their blatant corruption and media complicity, in their efforts to create a one party state with no nhs and a no deal crash out, explain why. Evil and always have been.

https://evolvepolitics.com/if-you-knew-the-...Gkz0uIb-iUBpc2I

 

This, their blatant corruption and media complicity, in their efforts to create a one party state with no nhs and a no deal crash out, explaind why. Evil and always have been.

 

I wasn't actually requesting *another* example of your obsession. :teresa:

I do take Michael seriously. It's important to know that these massive influencers of public opinion are being held to account. If they have some ridiculous methodology, as alleged, then it deserves inquiry.

 

It might be due to interpretation of the 'how likely are you to vote' question, but still...

I do take Michael seriously. It's important to know that these massive influencers of public opinion are being held to account. If they have some ridiculous methodology, as alleged, then it deserves inquiry.

 

It might be due to interpretation of the 'how likely are you to vote' question, but still...

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but the question I was asked was simply 'Who do intend to vote for in the GE?'. Nothing ambiguous in that.

The methodology seems bizarre and if that was what was used to base last years, then we can expect things to basically go the same way again - Labour to do better than expected, the Tories to be the biggest party however nowhere near as big as indicated and maybe not big enough to have a majority.

 

(but then that was probably the most likely outcome anyway, regardless of weird bias polls)

You do realise that this obsession you have about the Tories merely provides us with much amusement, and no-one takes your seriously any more? :rolleyes:

 

Speak for yourself. I think you're the one person here that isn't taken seriously, if anything.

Latest preference for PM poll.

 

Preference for PM

 

Boris 47%

Corbyn 17%

Swinson 16%

Edited November 18, 20195 yr by common sense

Latest preference for PM poll.

 

Preference for PM

 

Boris 47%

Corbyn 17%

Swinson 16%

 

Is that using some odd methodology too :lol:

Is that using some odd methodology too :lol:

 

Yes, they polled a sample that included 47% who'd recently undergone a lobotomy.