It'll be interesting to see how the TIG rate in the polls for the next month or two - especially as they appear to have only one policy, and no really big names... :rolleyes:

At ethe independent group standing in elections? They certainly don't seem to want to stand in a by election anyway!

At ethe independent group standing in elections? They certainly don't seem to want to stand in a by election anyway!

 

At the moment it seems to be a "To Be Confirmed" situation. There is a parliamentary by-election that's likely to take place in Wales in the next few months, but I don't think they'll have a candidate ready in time for that - in order for them to make an impact, it'll have to be a marquee name, but I'm not sure if there's any big names that aren't already in parliament that would support the aims of the Tiggers.

 

As for the local election, I don't think they've got enough of a run-in time to have a whole swathe of new candidates to run in most of the places up for re-election. If they are running, it'll likely be local defectors rather than brand new names. Which would be a shame for them, as building themselves up from the grassroots will be very important for them - it worked wonders for the Lib Dems building themselves up on a council level, which then helped when they were standing on a national level. At the moment, TIG is very much a top-down party, given they've only got MPs at the moment.

There are no local elections in Newport, so I suspect the by-election may be in April. The only reason for leaving it until May ould be if Labour think there is a chance they could lose the seat.

 

Fielding a large number of candidates in the May elections would be a huge rusk for the Tiggers. With no party organisation at the moment, they could end up getting very bad results indeed. That could kill them off before they've even started.

There are no local elections in Newport, so I suspect the by-election may be in April. The only reason for leaving it until May ould be if Labour think there is a chance they could lose the seat.

 

Very little chance of that - the Tories could only barely scrape it, even in the Thatcherite landslide of 1983.

Conservatives would win a 34-seat majority if a General Election were held tomorrow - but LOSE if Jeremy Corbyn stepped down as Labour leader, poll suggests

 

Theresa May would would win a 34-seat majority in a General Election, poll says

The Mail on Sunday poll puts the Conservatives on 39% and Labour on 31%

Without Corbyn as leader, Labour would win 40% over the Tories 37%, poll says

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-67...l-suggests.html

 

******************************************

 

OK, the numbers themselves are not that important, but the notion that there would be a considerable swing to Labour without Corbyn as leader, should provide food for thought...

Edited February 24, 20196 yr by vidcapper

Very little chance of that - the Tories could only barely scrape it, even in the Thatcherite landslide of 1983.

In the last election Labour and the Tories both won seats they didn’t win in landslide years.

In the last election Labour and the Tories both won seats they didn’t win in landslide years.

 

True - demographic changes can cause that.

For anyone in any doubt as to why Labour are now suddenly in favour of a 2nd referendum -

 

@1100158795894980610

 

Obviously you shouldn't read too much into one poll, but golly gosh, look at that Labour %.

Oh dear at Labour!

For anyone in any doubt as to why Labour are now suddenly in favour of a 2nd referendum -

 

@1100158795894980610

 

Obviously you shouldn't read too much into one poll, but golly gosh, look at that Labour %.

 

It's the mid 80's over again!

 

With the loss of some moderate MP's, that presumably makes the core even less appealing. But will Corbyn get the clear message without an election defeat to ram it home?

Latest Opinium

 

Definitely a slump for Labour and a surge for the Conservatives! That's the Conservatives, who just had to pay out £33 million to EuroTunnel to settle a lawsuit over extra ferry services in the event of a no-deal Brexit.: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47414699

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 40% (+3)

LAB: 34% (-3)

LDEM: 9% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (-)

GRN: 3% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, 26 Feb - 01 Mar

Chgs. w/ 15 Feb

 

 

TIG down to 5%... :lol:

Latest from Survation:

 

@1106901738307702784

Latest from Survation:

 

You looked in The Mail - I thought that was a forbidden publication for Remainers/progressives... :teresa:

Edited March 17, 20196 yr by vidcapper

That's a poll to frighten the torys with this weeks vote for me because labour were well behind over the past two months now all of a sudden they have a decent lead!?

That's a poll to frighten the torys with this weeks vote for me because labour were well behind over the past two months now all of a sudden they have a decent lead!?

 

Not surprising given that May is pushing so hard for a deal that pretty much no one wants.

I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll.

I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll.

 

And even then, they are hardly likely to call a GE while trailing in the polls!

 

I don't think that poll's going to spook the Tories, unless there's a couple more polls that come out showing a Labour lead, demonstrating this is a consistent pattern, rather than one rogue poll.

 

Westminster voting intention:

 

LAB: 41% (+5)

CON: 36% (-7)

LDEM: 7% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (+2)

 

via @DeltaPollUK

Chgs. w/ 23 Feb

 

 

I think the odds of the PM calling a GE have just lengthened greatly... :P