surprised Ladbaby is doing so badly on YT, in 5 days he's done less than Ariana in 1 day (it seems)

guess he's a Youtuber but not at the same category as people like Connor Maynard, who can do > 1 million YT views per day for the first few days

 

 

He's not a huge YouTuber, is he? I hadn't heard of him before this, and his most-viewed video has all time views of around 4 million. I'm surprise he's done so well on sales, as bigger YouTubers have struggled comparatively.

I feel like Ladbaby will end up at #1 he’s pushed Ava down to 28% now and Amazon sales are probably strong.

 

 

I guess the bookies have taken a lot of money Ariana so her keeping her shorter than she really should be. Ariana is completely out of the race, Ava increased the lead by 950 with only missing youtube data so unless Ariana is leading on youtube by 1000 sales per day (she's not) Ava will keep increasing the lead as the week goes on.

 

The only threat is a LadBaby sales surge if media pick up on it more, even then Ava has a comfortable lead with LadBaby having virtually no missing streaming.

 

Don't forget that Spotify/Apple/Amazon streams are always a day behind though. Ariana's not out of the race by any stretch of the imagination.

He's not a huge YouTuber, is he? I hadn't heard of him before this, and his most-viewed video has all time views of around 4 million. I'm surprise he's done so well on sales, as bigger YouTubers have struggled comparatively.

 

He more a facebook blogger and a tips for families trying to save money. Dont think he huge on youtube but he is huge on facebook

Edited December 18, 20187 yr by 777666jason

I feel like Ladbaby will end up at #1 he’s pushed Ava down to 28% now and Amazon sales are probably strong.

 

Still possible if he keeps increasing but he's already 2,700 behind and won't benefit from late streams as much as Ariana and Ava. That BBC News article "Sorry, but LadBaby won't be Christmas number one" must've really given him a boost today.

 

Bloody hell though this Friday's chart show could be a nailbiter unless someone really pulls ahead in next couple of days.

Edited December 18, 20187 yr by AcerBen

Where is the new album by Westlife anyway, I thought they were about to release one?

are Westlife reunited?

If it's true that Ava is further extending her lead now I think she's probably got this! Looking at last week again it was Ariana extending the gap between the two throughout the week, if it's the other way round now they're not likely to switch back over unless Ari gets a big boost from somewhere. Another case of sales still being significant enough to be the deciding factor it seems (and for a race as 'significant' as the Christmas #1), as Ariana appears to be ahead on every relevant streaming platform.

 

Watch it still somehow be LadBaby now to snatch possibly the worst ever Xmas #1 from the jaws of one of the better ones.

Don't forget that Spotify/Apple/Amazon streams are always a day behind though. Ariana's not out of the race by any stretch of the imagination.

 

I can think of many ways to do the maths, none of them have Ariana coming out ahead.

 

Compare last week's Tuesday midweek to this weeks. Last week Ariana lead by 5k and this week is down by 2.2k - two days of youtube. So say each day of youtube is worth 400 sales more to Ariana than Ava that closes the gap by 800 to 1.4k.

Ariana is doing at least 6.4k worse than last week (which is a like-for-like comparsion after 4 days of sales and 3 of streaming) If she does 8.7k worse over the whole week she loses number one.

 

 

Alternatively looking just at Spotify streams (assume they are representative of the whole streaming market) Ava is up 17% comparing last week Fri/Sat/Sun numbers and Ariana is down 8%. If you take Ariana's total streaming sales last week and reduce by 8% (53,754 * 0.92) to comes to 49,453 and increase Ava's by 17% (guessing Ava digital sales last week at 10,000/streaming 39,708) (39,708*1.17 = 46,458)

 

If Ariana is only leading streaming by 49,453 to 46,458, Ava easily has the sales to take the lead.

If it's true that Ava is further extending her lead now I think she's probably got this! Looking at last week again it was Ariana extending the gap between the two throughout the week, if it's the other way round now they're not likely to switch back over unless Ari gets a big boost from somewhere. Another case of sales still being significant enough to be the deciding factor it seems (and for a race as 'significant' as the Christmas #1), as Ariana appears to be ahead on every relevant streaming platform.

 

Watch it still somehow be LadBaby now to snatch possibly the worst ever Xmas #1 from the jaws of one of the better ones.

 

But a big part of the reason she's ahead is because we're missing 3 days of YouTube streams, and the usual 1 day of audio streams. When they get added it's going to be much closer.

 

I'm hoping for Ava myself too but trying not to stay realistic!

I can think of many ways to do the maths, none of them have Ariana coming out ahead.

 

Compare last week's Tuesday midweek to this weeks. Last week Ariana lead by 5k and this week is down by 2.2k - two days of youtube. So say each day of youtube is worth 400 sales more to Ariana than Ava that closes the gap by 800 to 1.4k.

Ariana is doing at least 6.4k worse than last week (which is a like-for-like comparsion after 4 days of sales and 3 of streaming) If she does 8.7k worse over the whole week she loses number one.

Alternatively looking just at Spotify streams (assume they are representative of the whole streaming market) Ava is up 17% comparing last week Fri/Sat/Sun numbers and Ariana is down 8%. If you take Ariana's total streaming sales last week and reduce by 8% (53,754 * 0.92) to comes to 49,453 and increase Ava's by 17% (guessing Ava digital sales last week at 10,000/streaming 39,708) (39,708*1.17 = 46,458)

 

If Ariana is only leading streaming by 49,453 to 46,458, Ava easily has the sales to take the lead.

 

What about the fact the audio streams are a day behind? What is the daily difference between Ariana and Ava there?

And does anyone know how accurate Digital Sales Data is? Slightly worried to see Ladbaby increasing so much on iTunes today. DSD reckons he's done 7700 copies in last 24 hours - is that anything like accurate?

What about the fact the audio streams are a day behind? What is the daily difference between Ariana and Ava there?

 

It doesn't matter; they were a day behind last week too. When the missing data is added on Friday it may well help Ariana, but it helped her last week too. (It will help less this week because the streaming gap is smaller.)

I just hope a song about Sausage rolls does not get it :lol: worst #1 ever.

 

Haven't had a good chart battle for the Christmas 1 in ages, this week seems to be a close one, I'm still thinking somehow Ariana will just clinch it.

It doesn't matter; they were a day behind last week too. When the missing data is added on Friday it may well help Ariana, but it helped her last week too. (It will help less this week because the streaming gap is smaller.)

 

How much will it help Ariana though.. hundreds or a couple thousand?

Edited December 18, 20187 yr by AcerBen

But a big part of the reason she's ahead is because we're missing 3 days of YouTube streams, and the usual 1 day of audio streams. When they get added it's going to be much closer.

 

I'm hoping for Ava myself too but trying not to stay realistic!

 

I don't think the gap on YouTube is significant enough for it to carry Ariana across the line in itself, Kworb's data is a few days behind as ever but Ariana's lead over Ava there was 193k on the last day we had data for so assuming it's kept roughly constant and that the vast majority of those will be free streams that only makes up about 1k sales for the 3 missing days. I still wouldn't rule Ariana out completely because the missing data is an uncertainty as always and it is still close but I think the trends in midweeks tend to hold throughout the week and considering there is always some missing data, that suggests that if Ava is trending towards pulling ahead then that will probably continue to happen throughout the week (and then maybe it'll tighten a little right at the end of the week when all the missing streaming is lumped on, but again looking at last week the gap between Ari and Ava only increased by 2.4k from Thursday to Friday, it's bound to be less than that this week I'd have thought and based on the trend so far Ava will be more than 2.4k ahead on the Thursday mids).

 

I think Digital Sales Data is just an estimate and IIRC it tends to be way off when there are songs that have huge leads.

 

Do we know is there's more missing YT data this week than last week?

http://i.imgur.com/xQUKJ5L.png

 

Tuesday Top 40 Update

Missing Data: Amazon HD, Amazon Music, Apple Music, Spotify (all for Monday), YouTube (for Saturday, Sunday and Monday)

 

Singles

 

1 Ava Max - Sweet But Psycho (24.8k)

2 Ariana Grande - thank u, next (22.5k)

3 LadBaby - We Built This City (22.1k) *

4 Mariah Carey - All I Want For Christmas Is You (17.2k)

5 Ariana Grande - imagine (16.3k) *

 

6-10

9 The Pogues feat. Kirsty MacColl - Fairytale of New York

 

11-20

12 Band Aid - Do They Know It's Christmas?

14 Michael Bublé - It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas

16 Elton John - Step Into Christmas

17 Leona Lewis - One More Sleep

18 Shakin' Stevens - Merry Christmas Everyone

19 Brenda Lee - Rockin' Around The Christmas Tree

 

21-30

21 Chris Rea - Driving Home For Christmas

23 Ariana Grande - Santa Tell Me

24 Wizzard - I Wish It Could Be Christmas Everyday

25 Flakefleet Primary - Light Up *

28 John & Yoko - Happy Xmas (War Is Over) ^

30 Paul McCartney - Wonderful Christmastime ^

 

31-40

34 George Ezra - Shotgun

40 Slade - Merry Xmas Everybody ^

 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Albums

 

1 Motion Picture Cast Recording - The Greatest Showman (32.6k)

2 Michael Bublé - love (28.5k)

3 George Ezra - Staying At Tamara's (26.2k)

4 Bruce Springsteen - Springsteen On Broadway (25.6k) *

5 Roy Orbison & Royal Philharmonic Orchestra - Unchained Melodies (24.7k)

 

6-10

9 Fleetwood Mac - 50 Years: Don't Stop

10 Olly Murs - You Know I Know

 

11-20

11 Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

13 Jess Glynne - Always In Between

16 Buddy Holly & Royal Philharmonic Orchestra - True Love Ways

17 Paul Heaton - The Last King Of Pop

 

21-30

22 Boyzone - Thank You & Goodnight

23 Motion Picture Cast Recording - Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again

 

31-40

32 Alfie Boe - As Time Goes By

33 Ariana Grande - Sweetener

34 Barbra Streisand - Walls

36 Ed Sheeran - ÷

40 Queen - Greatest Hits ^

Yes baby :dance:

Ava or the sausage rolls to be Xmas number 1.

I prefer Ava of course but both are much funnier than that monotonous Ariana song. :P

How much will it help Ariana though.. hundreds or a couple thousand?

 

Closer to hundreds than thousands, last week she gained 2.4k between Thursday and Friday (but she was also gaining every other day too) so much less than that, I would guess 500ish.

I think LadBaby will do it!

Only in the UK could a song about sausage rolls get to #01. I despair.