Just noticed that Tony Blair's old seat of Sedgefield went to the Tories, too. :o

 

That is bad. There's no denying it.

Just noticed that Tony Blair's old seat of Sedgefield went to the Tories, too. :o

 

The Tories held Cheltenham despite the LD's best efforts

 

Conservative Alex Chalk

Votes: 28,486

Vote share %: 48.0

Vote share change: +1.3

Liberal Democrat

 

Max Wilkinson

Votes: 27,505

Vote share %: 46.3

Vote share change: +4.2

 

Labour

George Penny

Votes: 2,921

Vote share %: 4.9

Vote share change: -4.6

 

Monster Raving Loony Party

George Ridgeon

Votes: 445

Vote share %: 0.7

Vote share change: +0.7

Our voting system is extremely undemocratic. We need a new one.

Our voting system is extremely undemocratic. We need a new one.

 

You're preaching to the converted here. :)

 

Just realized, Boris can easily push through those boundary changes now...

He can do whatever he wants. He can purge mps who disagree with him willy nilly. The Tories are now even more terrified of Cummings.

She seemed to dislike Corbyn more than Bojo.

 

 

Yes and that was odd. She really seemed to hate Jeremy with a passion.

He can do whatever he wants. He can purge mps who disagree with him willy nilly. The Tories are now even more terrified of Cummings.

 

 

Except Cummings is having an operation next week. Monday I think but hoping to be home for Christmas. I'm sure we all wish him well. Heard that today and will be recovering for a few weeks as it's a major operation.

Edited December 13, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

That is bad. There's no denying it.

 

 

Yeah they said it had an 18,000 majority in 2005 so in just 9 years it's been lost to the Tories. Amazing.

Yes and that was odd. She really seemed to hate Jeremy with a passion.

 

She really did!

 

But if 18k majorities can be wiped out in 10 years, the Tory seats on 100s and a few thousand are not safe. Of course tory safe seats are now stronger than Labour ones, which are now marginals.

She really did!

 

 

She was a fairly new MP too so can't have known him that well.

 

Wonder if they'll try and get her back in a by-election.

Edited December 13, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

She was a fairly new MP too so can't have known him that well.

 

Wonder if they'll try and get her back in a by-election.

She first won her seat in 2005. She was out from 2015-17, but otherwise hd held it since then. I'm sure that's long enough to get to know a fair bit about Corbyn.

A voter's wedding ring was found in a ballot box. Must have fallen off a finger. Police are trying to trace the owner.

That's not something you hear much about Johnson and women.

 

 

LOL. True. :D

Here's a few predictions from DS posters. Do you agree with any of them?

 

 

In 5 years' time, or whenever the next election takes place, the NHS will STILL be free at the point of use, but Labour will STILL be claiming that the Tories intend to privatise it.

 

We’ll have left the EU without a deal.

 

The poorer will be even more poorer.

 

The disadvantaged will be even more disadvantaged.

 

 

 

And my two favourites:

 

The Tories will still be negotiating their trade deals when the next election comes around with Boris declaring that it's nearly complete and everyone needs to vote Tory to "get it done." :D

 

Other members of the EU will see how well the UK is doing after leaving "the club" and they will be clambering to do the same .

Edited December 13, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

A few more.

 

 

1. World wide recession happening soon - Not sure how this is going to affect the UK, can things get any worse in austere times?

2. A Conservative leadership challenge will see Johnson leave politics after he loses the party election

3. The Conservative MP for Hitchin & East Herts will lose his seat to the Lib Dems at the next election, it will come down to a couple or so votes and not the nearly 8000 majority he had this election

4. Trump will have been impeached and kicked out of office long before 2025

5. Nicola Sturgeon will still be bleating on about indyref!

6. We will have a new King as head of state

7. DFS will be having a sale!

Just having a look over the results - had Labour agreed to a pact with Lib Dem/Greens/Plaid when offered, the election would've been a lot closer. At the very least they didn't go below 200 like the exit poll predicted.

 

I feel the main thing that hurt Labour this election was their stance on Brexit. Sitting on the fence for a while and then finally saying they would do a second referendum was the wrong move. Brexit party soaked up a lot of their vote, as well as there being a considerable swing from Labour to Conservatives.

 

 

 

Yeh he will have to but he will hold back as long as possible.

 

Legally he doesn't have to, but there *would* be a moral obligation to.

 

He can do whatever he wants. He can purge mps who disagree with him willy nilly.

 

Rather like Momentum attempts to deselect non-Corbyn-supporting Labour MP's? :mellow:

What happened to the 'youthquake'?

 

IMO, Labour lost more Leave supporters than they gained through young ones. :unsure:

Rather like Momentum attempts to deselect non-Corbyn-supporting Labour MP's? :mellow:

There's a big difference.

 

Momentum's attempts to unseat Labour MPs were done at the local party level. Local party members made the decision and that decision was generally to keep their MP.

 

OTOH, Tory MPs were deselected by the fat controller when he withdrew the party whip from them.

 

Which do you think was more democratic?

Having had time to reflect* on this catastrophic defeat for the progressive/Labour movement I have the following few points to make.

 

 

 

1) The loss of traditional Labour seats in the north such as Leigh, Bolsover, Bassetlaw and incredibly North West Durham and Sedgefield etc. was a continuation of a trend well picked up on by some, which started in the mid-2010s and accelerated at the 2017 election turning rock solid safe seats into marginals. While Brexit may have been the catalyst I think it is fair to say that the party became disconnected with constituents in these areas who felt abandoned/ignored and taken for granted and just disaffected with politics in general after the 3 years of post-EU referendum mayhem. This is a trend that will be difficult to reverse.

 

2) The pivot to a second referendum, which I did think initially was a bad idea, probably helped to prevent this from being a total collapse and a <200 seat total with support holding in major cities and areas with a high 2016 remain vote - the only gain for Labour, Putney - was one such area (72% remain). There is also a massive realignment now occurring with former Conservative strongholds like Canterbury becoming less marginal and staying Labour. There aren't enough Canterbury/Putney seats to bring about a Labour government however.

 

3) There remains a huge polarisation of generations which has if anything become even more pronounced from 2017 to 2019 with 57% of 18-24-year-olds voting Labour, but only 18% of over-65s doing so.

 

4) As to why Labour lost ground - whilst some of the blame can be linked to the increasing polarisation around Brexit and the slightly confused and/or awkward Brexit policy - I think it would be fair to say that Corbyn and his tepid leadership are at least somewhat to blame (which was IMO unfairly amplified by a rather hostile media.. but that's another debate), however I think whoever was leading the party would have also struggled to maintain the uneasy coalition of affluent remain voters, and those in former industrial towns outside the large cities across England and Wales, who were more likely to have voted leave in the EU referendum. The manifesto had some strong policies, which individually all had widespread support from the public, but I think there was possibly too much there which ultimately either confused or made the public sceptical about whether all of this was possible and the stuff like free broadband was undeliverable. Rightly or wrongly, the clear 'Get Brexit Done' message, even though it is a complete lie, will have galvanised support in the key areas to build a sufficient coalition for government.

 

5) Finally- Centrism, the cornerstone of the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition 2010-15 and of the Labour Party from 1994 to 2015 appears to be dead with very little meaningful evidence of an advance in the Liberal Democrat vote away from heavy remain voting areas, and with the Brexit question effectively resolved as we now leave the EU on 31st January 2020 the raison d'être of the Liberal Democrats appears to be very fragile indeed - they will have to rapidly evolve or face terminal decline.

 

Far from breaking the Conservative party, it appears that Brexit has actually reshaped and transformed them and allowed them to put together a fairly solid coalition of >40% of voters which will prevent any other party forming a majority for the foreseeable future. It does however look like it has accelerated the decline of the Labour Party in their traditional heartlands where the party was born in the late 19th Century, and like in Scotland completely reshaped politics in these areas, possibly for a very long time.

 

Grim.

 

Sadly, I don't have any answers as to where to go from here.

 

 

* after Christmas parties and generally distracting myself with alcohol.