Some newspapers speculating that Corbyn would resign on Friday allowing McDonnell to become caretaker leader until a new leader is elected and Rebecca Long-Bailey to be his Shadow Chancellor.

That Guardian saying it's only a few tens of thousands of votes in the marginals between a comfortable Tory majority, and the Tories only being on around 300 seats, it could still be all to play for.

 

The *Guardian* said that? Shock horror! :rolleyes: It sounds like MM and his fantasy politics 'Labour only xx votes short of a majority in 2017, so they should have been given the win'. :P

 

Poor IDS has been sent a decomposing dead rat in the post to his home and it's shaken him up. :rolleyes: What a stupid thing to do whatever he did in the past with benefits.

 

Some people just lose their minds over politics... :wacko:

The Guardian/Observer does not like Corbyn (they may be left-leaning, but they're liberal above that). The latter's recommendation of voting today was simply anyone but Boris.

 

Interesting tactical voting guide from them today though. My seat's listed as one of the 50 key ones to tactical vote in to help beat Boris, good thing I'm already planning to do as it says.

 

re: IDS, being sent a dead rat is a small price to pay for being responsible for some of the cruelest policies (particularly against disabled people) in recent western history. He's one of the worst humans in Parliament and I really hope he loses his seat. People 'lose their minds' over vulnerable people dying, sounds pretty acceptable to me.

He was also filmed picking his nose and eating it in the Commons 🤢

He was also filmed picking his nose and eating it in the Commons 🤢

 

 

Yes I remember, caught on camera. :D

Edited December 8, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

good heavens campaign fatigue is really bloody setting in isn't it

good heavens campaign fatigue is really bloody setting in isn't it

 

 

Why do you say that?

good heavens campaign fatigue is really bloody setting in isn't it

 

 

Why do you say that?

good heavens campaign fatigue is really bloody setting in isn't it

 

You might want to revisit my 'Length of GE campaigns' thread. ;)

no no no nothing to do with that let's just burn this page and start again until we are all correctly calling for the head of IDS

 

Tory MP endearing himself to the public in Broxtowe.

Guardian analysis of this weekend's polls.

 

 

With days to go before the election, there is little sign recent campaigning has had any dramatic impact. A crop of five weekend polls put the Conservatives 11 points ahead, a widening of the Tory lead by about one point, compared with rolling averages.

 

Boris Johnson’s party’s poll rating levelled out at about 42%-43% a fortnight ago, but that is easily enough for a majority if Labour does not close the gap. Overall, it would not be a much better national vote share than the 42.34% secured by Theresa May in 2017, but the question this time is how the votes are distributed.

 

Labour has improved over the past fortnight to about 33%, but it is not obvious that Jeremy Corbyn’s party is doing enough to force a hung parliament. Those who like to reflect on the experience of 2017, where the party staged an impressive late comeback, should look at the average polling graphs compared.

 

The graph tells a clear story: Labour is consistently increasing in a way that mirrors 2017 – but at each equivalent stage, Corbyn’s party is a few points behind this time around, and if anything, the gap is slightly widening

 

Only one of the five surveys from Deltapoll conducted any fieldwork on Saturday, after the head-to-head debate on the BBC on Friday night, in which Corbyn gave a serious, considered performance and tried to call out his rival for “racist remarks” in his past writings.

 

Watch the pre-election polls to see if the TV debate has made any difference. It might: interestingly, according to Ipsos Mori, Corbyn’s low personal ratings have improved from -60 to -44 since November, while Johnson’s have slumped from +2 to -20. The sum is those who are satisfied with their performance as leader minus those who are not.

 

The big difference with 2017 is the improved relative performance of the Liberal Democrats. Jo Swinson’s party has been squeezed since her appearance on Question Time on 22 November, but even with an average of 12%-13%, the party is five points ahead of where it finished at the previous election, helped by the Lib Dem anti-Brexit stance and worries in some progressive voters’ minds about antisemitism.

 

What may hurt the Conservatives is tactical voting. Some recent seat-by-seat polling is suggesting the Lib Dems could take pro-remain seats from the Conservatives where Labour cannot, most notably Guildford – opening up the possibility of more Tory losses in London and the south-east than anticipated.

 

But that may not mean much if the Conservative vote continues to hold up in Scotland, and Johnson’s party can gain at least the dozen seats where Labour has a majority of less than 2,000 votes, and that voted 55% or more for leave. Another recent constituency poll has the Conservatives taking Wrexham, the seat with the largest majority of those dozen, by a landslide.

 

This close to an election, it is prudent to be wary of polling. But unless something dramatic occurs, Boris Johnson is heading to Downing Street with an overall majority.

 

 

 

Edited December 8, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

The Conservatives are definitely rattled because they've been campaigning to defend their own marginal seats today in places like Cheadle (with Johnson) and Bolton West (sans Johnson). Indeed, the Independent’s own pollster, BMG Polling, is only showing a six-point lead for the Conservatives which could produce another hung parliament which would be exactly the same election result as last time.

 

Today, a number of papers have openly called for tactical voting (rather than endorsing any one party) to ensure that Johnson does not get a majority:

 

The Observer view on who to vote for in the general election. After a tawdry campaign of lies and racism, the choice is clear – anyone but Johnson.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2...who-to-vote-for

 

Tactical voting helped rescue Britain in 1997. We can do it again. A hung parliament represents our best chance of halting Britain’s steep decline...Boris Johnson is Britain’s version of Trump or Berlusconi.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2...can-do-it-again

 

Tactical voting guide 2019: the 50 seats where it is vital to keep the Tories out. One of Britain’s leading pollsters identifies the best choices for Remain voters at key general election battlegrounds.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/d...eneral-election

 

 

Tory MP endearing himself to the public in Broxtowe.

 

Is that Soubrys seat?

Is that Soubrys seat?

It is. She's sitting on the end and looks like she can't quite believe what she's hearing. This man is the sort of ignoramus who passes as a suitable candidate in a set the Tories expect to win.

She only just got in last time so I imagine the tories will take this seat this time?!

Added my vote for Labour, as with 4 days to go I've now 100% decided that's what I'm going for.

I simply don't believe the polls. I'm looking forward to an upset, egg in the Tories' face.

Added my vote for Labour, as with 4 days to go I've now 100% decided that's what I'm going for.

 

Who were you thinking of before this?

From John Curtice, polling expert.

 

"According to all the weekend polls and taking all other things such as the youth vote, tactical voting and voters making their mind up at the last minute, the Conservatives I believe are heading for about a 30-45 majority on Thursday which is sizable enough to get Johnson's deal through before Jan.31st. I'd be surprised if their majority was any more than 50. The problem with this election is that the working class Labour voting areas in the north of England want to leave the EU and many are going to vote Conservative solely because of that. They look at the dilapidated state of their home towns following years of reduced investment, crime and lack of money and blame the EU - or, even if they don't directly blame the EU, they think they may as well have a major change in the hope that things will get better. Rightly or many would say wrongly, no other policies seem to rank as highly and Boris's "get Brexit done" and "it's oven ready" phrases have really struck a chord. Brexit, and nothing else, will have won it for Boris if he gets a majority

Edited December 8, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas