It is often remarked that generals, the bad ones at any rate, always tend to fight the last war. And then, of course, lose.

 

I wonder if we – the journalists, the voters, even the politicians – are making the same mistake with the British general election of 2019.

 

Ever since the get-go, and even now, the word you most often hear (apart from Brexit) about this contest is “unpredictable”. We’re still told that this is the most unpredictable election in years; that anything could happen; the public is volatile and undecided; there will be some wave of tactical voting to transform things; or a wave of tactical campaigning to do the same; or a “youth quake” is going to sweep away our complacent assumptions; that aggressive micro-targeted modern cyber election techniques will transform the parties’ marketing; and, of course, that the polls are all wrong and anyway, a 2017-style Corbyn surge is just around the corner.

 

Even if any of those things were ever true, or were ever going to be true, they are not true now. It is not 2017 all over again. We are going to get a Tory landslide. Or leastways a very decent majority, large enough for Boris Johnson to disregard not only the opposition parties, but also the European Research Group and any vestigial stirrings of pro-Remain, anti-no deal sentiment that somehow escaped his purge of the candidates’ list.

 

At the start of this campaign, Johnson and the Conservatives had a roughly 10-point lead over the Labour Party, and the position has held, with some squeeze on the Farageists and the Lib Dems, bar a few wibbles and wobbles, ever since. We might as well have called off all the tedious “make-or-break” leaders’ debates and photo stunts and fact-checking and just put our feet up. I’m a Celeb was more volatile and unpredictable.

 

It has been remarkably predictable in fact – or, more accurately, the unpredictable thing about the year 2019 was how boringly predictable it has been. Things are not, as of today, “tight”, as Laura Kuenssberg says they are. I don’t know why she says this, given all the data, but there we are.

 

The Tories, true enough, agree it is touch and go, but that is not because they fear not being the largest party or winning a working majority. What is touch and go is the Johnson landslide – the thing he most prizes but dare not speak of.

 

In other words, the Conservatives want to scare people, especially Brexit Party voters and Labour Leavers, into giving them a landslide – a 100 plus majority. Labour also talks up how easily they could deprive the Tories of their majority (as in 2017), for similar reasons – to gather momentum. The Lib Dems try to make out they are still on track to hold the balance of power, as they fantasised when Jo Swinson made her historic blunder of granting Johnson his early election.

 

The more we look at it, the more the 2017 contest was sui generis, a reflection of Theresa May’s extraordinarily poor campaign, and we are now witnessing a reversion to an older norm. Almost every election since the Second World War has been characterised by two things: that the polls hardly shift during the campaign and, closely connected, that all the noise and tumult is mere background. People make their minds up years before.

 

The truth, I suppose, is that we have been in a virtual non-stop election campaign ever since the inconclusive 2017 poll. The voters are well aware of the personalities and arguments. Johnson and Sturgeon have been around for years and we are familiar with them; Corbyn is no longer this slightly startling man of principle: the more we have come to know him, the dodgier some of his views have become. Swinson, meantime, has pulled off the remarkable trick of growing less impressive the more the public see of her, whereas Sturgeon, Angela Rayner, Caroline Lucas and Rebecca Long-Bailey have been stars in a lacklustre scene.

 

Most people in this country can barely remember a Tory government with a parliamentary majority big enough for it to do whatever it liked. Many were not even born. It was last seen at the 1987 election, when Margaret Thatcher won her third contest with a majority of 102. I predict the same this time, even given all the social changes over the past 30 years. In which case, you should get used to the idea of a Johnson-led government of cronies and toadies.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Attacks of any kind shouldn’t be condoned. However, I doubt the milkshake threat was even true and it’s more to save face after Johnson’s biggest PR disaster of the campaign so far. The Tories have already fed lies once today to the media about Labour ‘activists’ - wrongly stating they punched a Tory aide.

Attacks of any kind shouldn’t be condoned. However, I doubt the milkshake threat was even true and it’s more to save face after Johnson’s biggest PR disaster of the campaign so far. The Tories have already fed lies once today to the media about Labour ‘activists’ - wrongly stating they punched a Tory aide.

 

 

Another row looming over his carbon footprint as he took a private jet today to travel from Doncaster to Darlington, 35 minutes flight, and the train would only have taken 53 minutes. It was said he had to fly "for security and schedule reasons" but the plane was only half full with press and his security detail and aides.

Edited December 9, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

Another row looming over his carbon footprint as he took a private jet today to travel from Doncaster to Darlington, 35 minutes flight, and the train would only have taken 53 minutes. It was said he had to fly "for security and schedule reasons" but the plane was only half full with press and his security detail and aides.

 

But I guess from a Tory point of view - f*** the world as he can get Brexit done eh? :rolleyes:

What were your views on him stealing the journalist phone today and not acknowledging or even looking at the picture of the boy on the floor in NHS. You and Vidcappet have been quite silent on the matter all day. Instead peddling the Sun instead

 

I have never mentioned the Sun once throughout the campaign.

 

It’s a sorry state where people believe all the lies Johnson tells but have one random Facebook person state an image is false, have it reposted by hundreds of Russian bots and everyone suddenly believes a mother would stage a photo of their sick child on the floor. All in the face of the actual hospital confirming it was true.

 

This is terrifying.

I have never mentioned the Sun once throughout the campaign.

 

Given I was quoting and responding to Chris - I didn’t say that You had

 

I only mentioned your name in relation to not mentioning the mirror article

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 43% (+1)

LAB: 36% (-)

LDEM: 12% (+1)

SNP: 4% (+1)

BREX: 3% (-1)

GRN: 2% (-)

 

via @SavantaComRes, 06 - 08 Dec

Chgs. w/ 02 - 05 Dec

https://britainelects.newstatesman.com/who-...r-poll-tracker/

 

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1204306504276414464

 

Cons short of an official majority by 4 or 5 depending on which seat predictor used. Movement of 1% puts them on 309 seats.

 

IDS, Goldsmith and some other high profile Tories losing their seats.

 

Doesn't take into account anything that happened since 22:00 on Sunday, so as ever... all to play for :)

 

Plenty more polls to come today/tomorrow.

 

Also CCHQ begging for local members to rush to Hastings & Rye and Lewes as it's not looking good.

Given I was quoting and responding to Chris - I didn’t say that You had

 

I only mentioned your name in relation to not mentioning the mirror article

 

Then perhaps you'll be more careful, and only mention my name iro posts I've directly spoken about - Thank you. :mellow:

I don't think the 'shy Tory' factor can be dismissed - given the reaction in most places to Boris's name, would *anyone* want to admit they were going to vote Tory?

 

In the secrecy of the ballot box, however... :thinking:

I don't think the 'shy Tory' factor can be dismissed - given the reaction in most places to Boris's name, would *anyone* want to admit they were going to vote Tory?

 

In the secrecy of the ballot box, however... :thinking:

 

 

Yes that's crossed my mind too.

Hopefully there will be a shy labour vote in the northern seats then!

Hopefully there will be a shy labour vote in the northern seats then!

 

Maybe they'll vote Tory as they know Labour will just draw out the Brexit process with a second referendum. Some strong leave areas up North.

I know but I hope they aren't so stupid to think leaving the Eu will make the NHS any better of other public services a lot of them rely on!

I know but I hope they aren't so stupid to think leaving the Eu will make the NHS any better of other public services a lot of them rely on!

 

 

A lot of them will be, mark my words.

Maybe they'll vote Tory as they know Labour will just draw out the Brexit process with a second referendum. Some strong leave areas up North.

Some people have much more concerning and important issues to think of than Brexit.

Then perhaps you'll be more careful, and only mention my name iro posts I've directly spoken about - Thank you. :mellow:

 

Careful in what? My post was clear you just chose (as always) to make an issue out of nothing

I don't think the 'shy Tory' factor can be dismissed - given the reaction in most places to Boris's name, would *anyone* want to admit they were going to vote Tory?

 

Surely the same could apply to Corbyn? Seeing as he is actually more unpopular than Johnson (well, according to the polls).

 

An example could be Penistone and Stockbridge, the neighbouring constituency to my home town one of Barnsley Central. Labour's Angela Smith left the party and is standing in Sale for the Lib-Dems. Very working class but the Tories are predicted to take it. Have cousins who live there. Barnsley Central will always be Labour but they never had as big a majority in Penistone.

Edited December 10, 20195 yr by Crazy Chris-tmas

Surely the same could apply to Corbyn? Seeing as he is actually more unpopular than Johnson (well, according to the polls).

 

 

Our MP doesn't mention him on his leaflet. :D