Parliament is under no obligation to accept any deal placed in front of them if the contents of the deal are bad. And the important thing is, the contents are bad. The reality of Brexit is that it is a failed idea that no 'economic realist' would want to be associated with in any way, shape or form.

Anyway, with the big Brexit party announcement, I guess game on for whether the left or the right can split itself worse. This is going to be a hugely different beast from 2017.

I hate that I'm genuinely hoping the Brexit Party are going to stand everywhere and do well. It feels like the safest bet to avoid Boris getting a huge majority at the moment.

 

Whatever happens this election is going to be an almighty mess and I'm scared. Might be fun for the stats though. x

Remember when everyone (myself included) thought the rise of Ukip meant that the Conservatives had no chance of winning in 2015, and then they ended up with an overall majority?

 

Sometimes the voters don't do what you expect them to do. Casual voters (ie those who don't follow politics incredibly closely) who lean "Remain" don't necessarily choose between Labour & the Lib Dems, or between just the Tories & the Brexit Party (and Ukip), voters can be a lot more malleable than what we would see as the "rational" switches - like Barking & Dagenham Council electing 12 BNP councillors in 2006 before losing them all to the Labour Party 4 years later, or closer to home, the amount of votes that transfer between Sinn Fein & TUV in PR elections. I've seen it theorised that the Brexit Party might take votes from Labour in Northern areas that voted leave, who live in areas that would never in a million years vote Tory due to how toxic the brand is in their area.

Anyway, with the big Brexit party announcement, I guess game on for whether the left or the right can split itself worse. This is going to be a hugely different beast from 2017.

 

 

Another poll today gives Boris a 10 point lead with the Fib-Dems DOWN 4. I just can't see any other result except a Tory majority. Not huge or anywhere near a landslide but about 40-60. Am not just saying this as a Boris fan but the polls all suggest it.

Edited November 1, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

I hate that I'm genuinely hoping the Brexit Party are going to stand everywhere and do well. It feels like the safest bet to avoid Boris getting a huge majority at the moment.

 

Whatever happens this election is going to be an almighty mess and I'm scared. Might be fun for the stats though. x

 

 

I think they'll get a shed load of votes but not win a single seat.

Edited November 1, 20195 yr by Freddie Kruger

Another poll today gives Boris a 10 point lead with the Fib-Dems DOWN 4. I just can't see any other result except a Tory majority. Not huge or anywhere near a landslide but about 40-60. Am not just saying this as a Boris fan but the polls all suggest it.

 

Polls are wrong all the time though, he is waving off the back of a Brexit Deal but there is a long way to go in the election.

 

The problem the Tories are going to have is the Brexit Party, mainly because any sort of electoral pact is going to be damage the brand. It would win them a majority of that I am certain, but for the party longevity I think it makes it very difficult. I don't think they will make any pact personally. Strange though as I think many of the moderate Conservatives will vote Lib Dems.

 

I think Labour offering a second referendum helps, I just don't see the Tories or Brexit party making inroads in to some proper Labour strongholds. The manifesto will be populist as anything

Fake polls.

Fake polls.

 

 

So show me a poll, any poll, where Labour are well ahead at the moment. Bet you £100 you can't.

Remember when everyone (myself included) thought the rise of Ukip meant that the Conservatives had no chance of winning in 2015, and then they ended up with an overall majority?

 

But the main reason the Tories benefitted and won a majority was thanks to the Lib Dem collapse in 2015. 28 of 38 "wins" were from seats held by the Lib Dems before the 2015 election. The tables have flipped this time with Lib Dems potentially taking a number of those seats back having already taken back a few in the 2017 election where their growth and profile wasn't as strong as this time round!

 

Anything could happen, but I struggle to see where the Tories will get the gains in practice.

Two more Tories, one MP and one ex-MP, have defected to the Lib Dems. Antoinette Sandbach, who at 6 ft 5 is the tallest female MP in Parliamentary history, has joined the Lib Dems and will be running for them in the upcoming election. It's in a seat the Tories have held since the 80s, so unlikely to win it for her new party.

 

Former Tory MP and journalist Matthew Parris has also quit the Tories and plans to vote for the Lib Dems in December. Although anyone who's read anything by him in the past few years would wonder why he didn't leave the Conservative Party years ago.

#JoinJo is getting stronger *.*

But the main reason the Tories benefitted and won a majority was thanks to the Lib Dem collapse in 2015. 28 of 38 "wins" were from seats held by the Lib Dems before the 2015 election. The tables have flipped this time with Lib Dems potentially taking a number of those seats back having already taken back a few in the 2017 election where their growth and profile wasn't as strong as this time round!

 

Anything could happen, but I struggle to see where the Tories will get the gains in practice.

 

The battleground will be in the North and Midlands. Think a lot of the commuter belt will go to the Lib Dems, although I suppose a lot of it will be what comes out in the manifestos. There are just some Brexit seats which I could just never, ever see going to the Tories no matter what the Labour stance on Brexit is.

 

Johnson's got a Brexit Deal now which he can sell to the public, but I do think the issue is if he is given a proper hard time in the media people will start to see his Deal is a bag of shite.

Two more Tories, one MP and one ex-MP, have defected to the Lib Dems. Antoinette Sandbach, who at 6 ft 5 is the tallest female MP in Parliamentary history, has joined the Lib Dems and will be running for them in the upcoming election. It's in a seat the Tories have held since the 80s, so unlikely to win it for her new party.

 

!!!

So show me a poll, any poll, where Labour are well ahead at the moment. Bet you £100 you can't.

 

MM : 'That's because they are all fake'... :rolleyes:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-76...ims-t-vote.html

 

Spectator editor Fraser Nelson apologises for Rod Liddle's claim that General Election should be on day 'where Muslims are forbidden to do anything on pain of hell' as author says comments were 'patently a joke'

 

Rod Liddle wrote a column saying election should be on day Muslims can't vote

The piece sparked outrage online, with Chancellor Sajid Javid among his critics

Mr Liddle later posted a defence of his article, which he said was 'patently a joke'

 

*********************************

 

Joking or not...?

 

I'd say yes, albeit in rather dubious taste!

 

 

How is that 300 seat majority workijg out from thr polld last time vidcapper? Seeing as you never say aaaanything bad, aaanythiny, r.e the Tories and Bojo and haven't even commented on the Bojo funding scandal to that woman, I assume you loved the result?

The Spectator has consistently been incredibly awful lately. It's even worse because I think it's still credibly respected by some, but if you actually read it you can feel the paternalistic condescending conservative attitude throughout. And you don't get to publish something and then later claim it to be a joke because it turns out some people didn't find your marginalisation of their existence funny.

 

I've seen transphobia/TERF apologism from them, not to mention this isn't the first time I've seen anti-democracy from them. It's extreme nonsense masquerading as sensible conservatism.

With thr hard and far right on the rise, a wannabe dictator in no.10, and propaganda instead of news, the hard right feel emboldened. That's why that rag has been even worse than usual.

for further examples of paternalistic conservative nonsense, see Telegraph writers:

 

@1189915166680457216

 

"wow, young people are being crushed by our capitalist system, why aren't they supporting it more? They should support it for everyone's good. What's that, an alternative, social democracy? Nonsense, I really am scared of young people voting for that, because then when things don't go bad economically they'll realise that the only reason free market capitalism exists is to exploit them and they'll never go back."

 

Same sentiments as that Spectator article too. Conservatives are REALLY running scared of the possibility that the young will actually vote this time.