November 15, 20195 yr Despite it being fairly marginal, Belfast North will probably stay DUP, sadly, but Emma Little-Pengelly is buggered in Belfast South and there might be a chance of an Alliance gain in Belfast East too!
November 15, 20195 yr Truro & Falmouth Conservatives (previous MP stood down, new candidate) Labour Lib Dems Green Liberal Party (new one!) In order in where they finished in the last election, which was 3k gap marginal with a huge increase for Labour last time, but this seat has a tradition of liberalism and there are signs that that's on the rise, making it a pretty deadly 3-way battle in which the likely winner will be the Tories :( If any of you have seen Jon Worth's great tactical voting roundup blog, it was one of the few seats in which he couldn't make any recommendation. That's the dilemma I've got and it's not an easy one. Were I in England and in the area I'd be probably choosing between campaigning in Camborne/Redruth for Labour or St. Ives for the Liberals as those seem more winnable. I am surprised the Greens didn't stand aside for the Lib Dems in this constituency then.....
November 15, 20195 yr Belfast South SDLP Claire Hanna DUP Emma Lyttle-Pengelly Alliance Paula Bradshaw UUP Michael Henderson Anotu Chris McHugh The DUP won this seat in 2017 by 2000 votes but SF and the Greens have stood aside this time to support a 'progressive remain candidate'. They both won nearly 9,500 votes last time round so it's likely the DUP will struggle to take the seat. Which is great news imo although I woulda voted PBP if they had stood, prob vote SDLP now.
November 16, 20195 yr You are in North Belfast iirc, fellow NIer? I personally would vote Alliance if I was there. I was predicting SF to just about win it there though and oust Dodds, but they have received some press criticism recently up there concerning a canvasser so I don't know now. I am indeed. Not keen on any of the candidates for different reasons, and I'm pretty peeved that some other parties didn't stand candidates here.
November 16, 20195 yr Pro-Remain, takes their seat at Westminster, at least nominally nationalist, closer to my thinking on social and economical issues.
November 16, 20195 yr Belfast South SDLP Claire Hanna DUP Emma Lyttle-Pengelly Alliance Paula Bradshaw UUP Michael Henderson Anotu Chris McHugh The DUP won this seat in 2017 by 2000 votes but SF and the Greens have stood aside this time to support a 'progressive remain candidate'. They both won nearly 9,500 votes last time round so it's likely the DUP will struggle to take the seat. Which is great news imo although I woulda voted PBP if they had stood, prob vote SDLP now. What in the world is PBP? Aontu is an intriguing new party, I don't think they will make much of an impression vote-wise in the election though, so SF should have a very good election. I predict SF will increase their majorities a bit vs the SDLP in their newest South Down and Foyle seats, as I don't the SF abstention issue will be that big a boost for the SDLP there, and the increase in support for a border poll in NI will help SF. The UUP are a bit like Labour a year ago in that they are a bit ambiguous when it comes to Brexit......they will almost certainly sadly flop again in the election, even more than last time, particularly in South Antrim where they used to poll well as Alliance get the anti-DUP/anti-Brexit boost instead. As for the other two non-English regions of the UK, Scotland will turn back to being nearly a general election map 'one party state' again, there is a possibility the Conservatives may lose all their seats in Scotland but I think they will retain 1, maybe 2 if they are lucky! And as for Wales, I don't know much about Welsh politics, but I think the Conservatives are most likely to lose 2 or 3 seats there to Plaid/Labour/Lib Dems. I read somewhere that the Lib Dems are challenging one of Plaid's seats but I don't think Plaid will lose any seats. Edited November 16, 20195 yr by TheSnake
November 16, 20195 yr What in the world is PBP? They're the very hard-left People Before Profit, who are also very anti-EU as well.
November 17, 20195 yr Author They're the very hard-left People Before Profit, So, slightly to the right of Corbyn then... :teresa:
November 17, 20195 yr So, slightly to the right of Corbyn then... :teresa: WROOOOONG. Right wing lies. Let's look at a political graph, which clearly shows Tories as hard authoritarian right and Labour as moderate European left x Must havw saved it on tablet, so I'll share later. Labour used to be classified on the right. It has now moved to the left SLIGHTLY. Thanks to our hard right media and Thatcher shifting rhe Overton Window, the hard right media screams and wails and claims it has gone hard left. Wrong. That is wrong. Moderate, slightly left.
November 19, 20195 yr So, slightly to the right of Corbyn then... :teresa: They would be similar to the old bennite left so similar. They have a number of TDs in the Dail and 2 MLAs in Stormont when it stood. They usually poll well in Foyle, North & West Belfast.
Create an account or sign in to comment