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I think Labour are doing about as well as can be hoped for at the moment. It's hard to see the combined vote of parties that support Brexit being less than 40% any time soon, I don't think the conservatives can go too much lower whilst whatever Farage is doing is pretty much non-existant.
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Tbh, it says a lot about the Labour Party that they're still not ahead of the Tories given everything, I know they will be soon probably but it really should've happened already. My party can't relate.

 

Why would they be ahead 6 months after losing a GE and the government have an 80 seat majority?? 🤔

More opinion polling, this time for the Welsh Parliament elections which are due next year. The most eye-opening thing about this poll is how surprisingly well the Brexit Party are doing in these polls compared to their national polling - given the way that Welsh PR works, they are likely to gain seats on those sort of %s. It might be a quirk of the parties mentioned in this polling question, as the Green Party don't seem to be there. No sign of the new party is Welsh politics, the Welsh National Party, which broke away from Plaid Cymru at the start of the year and currently have one AM and several local councilors. They were due to launch officially by now, but couldn't because of "the event".

 

@1271153920941928451

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

 

Is best to negotiate with the EU:

Johnson: 39% (% who agree)

Starmer: 31%

 

Is able to stand up for Britain's interest abroad:

Johnson: 40%

Starmer: 34%

 

via @OpiniumResearch

 

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

 

Is able to get things done:

Johnson: 40% (% who agree)

Starmer: 32%

 

Is brave

Johnson: 37%

Starmer: 29%

 

via @OpiniumResearch

 

Do you agree that Boris Johnson/Keir Starmer...

 

Is trustworthy

Johnson: 29% (% who agree)

Starmer: 35%

 

Is competent

Johnson: 34%

Starmer: 43%

 

via @OpiniumResearch

29% think Johnson is trustful? Were these questions asked in the local Tory clubs?
29% think Johnson is trustful? Were these questions asked in the local Tory clubs?

 

Never underestimate the general public's general ignorance of politics. Unlike those of us who are up to date on the minutia of political goings-on, the vast majority only pick up on a tiny amount of the political discourse. I would say that the reason his trustworthiness rating has absolutely collapsed in recent weeks has been due to the Dominic Cummings saga, which is the one political scandal that really did cut through to the majority of the general public, even if it has falling down the news agenda due to one thing and another.

My money's on weird centrist types still holding a candle for AV.

 

My fanfiction is a 22% support for anti-statists dividing the country into anarchist communes.

I wasn't expecting that at all. At least the Tories can't use that flawed AV referendum as evidence the public want FPTP ahead of all alternatives. When there was a vote on PR in the Commons last year I acc emailed my then-MP Ross Thomson (widely known here in Aberdeen for his slipping hands allegedly) hoping to at least get an answer to my points about why PR is needed but he just spewed the Tory line and didn't even respond to what I said.
I wasn't expecting that at all. At least the Tories can't use that flawed AV referendum as evidence the public want FPTP ahead of all alternatives. When there was a vote on PR in the Commons last year I acc emailed my then-MP Ross Thomson (widely known here in Aberdeen for his slipping hands allegedly) hoping to at least get an answer to my points about why PR is needed but he just spewed the Tory line and didn't even respond to what I said.

 

When the PR debate happened (I don't think it was a vote, just a debate?), I'd emailed my then-MP Nigel Dodds asking him to take part in the debate. Surprisingly, he emailed back saying that he would attend subject to other parliamentary business, although in the end I don't think he turned up. There's no point me doing the same with my current MP if a future debate was to happen given that he refuses to take his seat.

 

As I've said before, PR is unlikely to happen through a parliamentary vote as it would be like turkeys voting for Christmas - if a party is able to rule having gained the majority of seats, then you're unlikely to vote for a system that would stop this from happening. I can only see it happening in Westminster if a coalition government comes into place where the minor party makes it a condition of coalition, or through a binding referendum. Although in the former case, I could see the minor party ultimately pull out of the coalition the moment the law changes in order to bring down the government to force a General Election on the understanding that the new system will bring them more seats very quickly, and I can only see the latter happening if a system was brought into place for referendums to happen within the Westminster system (perhaps something along the lines of a referendum being called if a petition signed by 10% of the electorate demands one).

The Tories remain overwhelmingly hostile to PR and there is little prospect of that changing any time soon. Labour, OTOH, are more sympathetic. There are still plenty of die-hard supporters of FPTP while others are more pragmatic. It was, after all, a Labour government that introduced PR for the Scottish parliament, Welsh assembly and London assembly.

 

As things stand, the chances of majority Labour government at the next election are slim although that may, of course, change over the next four years. They could, though, be the largest party without a majority. It then becomes a matter of whether the Lib Dems are in a position to insist on PR as a condition for a coalition. I'm assuming that there has been no Scottish independence referendum and that the SNP's number one priority would be that they get that referendum.

 

Of course, if Scotland look like leaving the UK in this decade, Labour support for PR may increase as their chances of winning sufficient seats in England and Wales to form a majority any time soon are bleak. Of course, that all assumes that the electorate don't finally cotton on to just how dreadful today's Tory party is.

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