Wonderful stuff!

 

Referendum now!

What a cracking guess by me!!! Ecstatic of course

Omg omg omg

 

58%!!!!!!!

 

I’m so excited for Indyref2 so I can campaign on the doorsteps and help say goodbye to the Union

It won’t happen our masters in the English Tory party won’t allow it

At that level of support they really can’t prevent it. It’s a when not an if any more.

Everything rests on next year. If the SNP win a majority and indy is still leading, it becomes untenable for BJ. But if we need the Greens again he can say 'oh well you didn't get a majority' and reject it.

 

The f***ing brass neck of the Tories who said 45% for the SNP last year wasn't a mandate for indy when 43% for the Tories apparently was for hard Brexit :lol:

Yeah, it's baked in now. The secession of Scotland from the UK is a matter of when and not if.

 

Also-look how strong the support is among younger voters... 70% for 35-44 yrs is incredible! Basically anyone not in the BOOMER generation.

 

Latest Scottish independence support polling by age:

 

16-24: 79%

25-34: 68%

35-44: 70%

45-54: 55%

55-64: 57%

65+: 40%

 

Source: Ipsos Mori, 2-9 October.

The union is a ticking time bomb. It’s literally a matter of when now. Honestly another good Covid round of deaths and we might even hit 50% in the over 65s. (I’m joking!!!!!!)

I’m surprised at the 40% for over 65s.

 

But what happens if Boris Johnson just says no anyway??

I’m surprised at the 40% for over 65s.

 

But what happens if Boris Johnson just says no anyway??

That's the problem. I've yet to hear the SNP offer a Plan B beyond 'oh but he'll cave eventually' which isnae a plan x

Yeh I’ve always said the British SOS having the power when a referendum can be called as a huge oversight of the GFA by nationalist leaders at the time.

That's the problem. I've yet to hear the SNP offer a Plan B beyond 'oh but he'll cave eventually' which isnae a plan x

 

Boris won't cave. Has nobody seen how stubborn the current regime is? This is the party that are 10 weeks away from creating economic suicide. What in the right mind do the SNP think they are going to give a referendum in 2021 or 2022!? Don't get me wrong, I think it will happen yet but the best bet is a different Tory leader or a Labour government.

Boris won't cave. Has nobody seen how stubborn the current regime is? This is the party that are 10 weeks away from creating economic suicide. What in the right mind do the SNP think they are going to give a referendum in 2021 or 2022!? Don't get me wrong, I think it will happen yet but the best bet is a different Tory leader or a Labour government.

I think the SNP leadership know he's unlikely to cave as well, which is why we haven't heard a proper plan yet. There should be a court challenge if needs be, I'm not sure if they'll do it though.

I think the SNP leadership know he's unlikely to cave as well, which is why we haven't heard a proper plan yet. There should be a court challenge if needs be, I'm not sure if they'll do it though.

 

I can't see ther being a court challenge. I'd find it pretty daft and a complete waste of public money if that is the case. I think it will certainly happen, but a few other cards need to fall in to place. I think we're talking 3-5 years for another referendum rather than 1-2.

Exactly what Rooney said they are arrogant in the extreme and it’ll take a different government for it if it does happen and it’ll be in 10 years when the situations more favourable and there’s no chance of them winning

Two Opinion Polls released today give Labour a lead over the Tories. Who would have thought that attacking a much loved footballer and being on the side of starving children could have such an impact.

 

@1322136323382218752

 

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Whilst I'm not good at predictions, I do predict that in the next Opinion Polls which include data from the last few days, Labour's lead will increase as a result of Starmer's move to distance the Labour Party from Corbyn.

Two Opinion Polls released today give Labour a lead over the Tories. Who would have thought that attacking a much loved footballer and being on the side of starving children could have such an impact.

 

@1322136323382218752

 

@1322126032028291072

 

Whilst I'm not good at predictions, I do predict that in the next Opinion Polls which include data from the last few days, Labour's lead will increase as a result of Starmer's move to distance the Labour Party from Corbyn.

 

I'd like to think so but do you not also think we could see fallout from Corbyns suspension from his supporters? If anything I'd anticipate Labour(unfortunately) dropping back again.

 

I'd like to think so but do you not also think we could see fallout from Corbyns suspension from his supporters? If anything I'd anticipate Labour(unfortunately) dropping back again.

 

Whilst I imagine that they could lose a tiny amount from die-hard Corbynites, I think they'd more than make that back from Tories voters that cross over, as well as from the "no one/no opinions" that would now answer Labour when asked. It'll be interesting to see if any of the smaller "left" parties do slightly gain in future polls; a few seemed to suggest they may go over to the Green Party, although I imagine that might cause a few problems on their side.

Ipsos is statistically the most accurate pollster so seeing a 5 point Labour lead there is very pleasing *.*

 

Putting those figures into the Electoral Calculus model has Boris Johnson losing his seat to Labour!!

I think the polls will shift ever so slightly back to the Tories, as they have been noticeably quiet this week. However if you're going off YouGov polls etc. - the Corbyn suspension might be better in the long run for the party. It will be interesting to see, I guess it just depends on how big a fallout there is. As Brett says, they might lose votes from the Ultra-left, but will gain votes back from the Tories.