The proposed boundary changes won't give the Tories as big a boost as was originally assumed, partly because of the peculiar nature of the 2019 result and also because they dropped the idea of reducing the number of MPs.

 

For many decades, there has been a trend for people to move out of the inner cities (which tend to vote Labour) into more rural areas (which tend to vote Tory). Therefore, the size of the electorate in Labour constituencies would go down while that in Tory constituencies went up. That is why boundary reviews are necessary. Thankfully, unlike the US, the boundary review is performed by an independent body, not politicians. Political parties will express a view and those views will inevitably be influenced by thoughts of electoral advantage. However, they still have to be able to back their views up with a coherent argument. While the previous requirement to give priority to keeping recognised communities in the same constituency has been downgraded, it is still a factor. Therefore, a small town is unlikely to have a constituency boundary going through it.

 

The 2019 election saw the Tories win a lot of traditionally Labour seats. Some of those seats are set to disappear in the boundary review, hence the reduced pro-Tory effect of the changes.

It will be interesting to see what the Lib Dem effect on the Tory vote will be in next election. Could be quite striking especially in places like Surrey and Oxfordshire

Everything is political!

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I see nobody's popular now.

 

Sunak plummeting down the charts, yay.

So Keir Starmer is less disliked than the Tories running the country. Sounds like progress to me...

So Keir Starmer is less disliked than the Tories running the country. Sounds like progress to me...

 

Was that supposed to say running or ruining?

So Keir Starmer is less disliked than the Tories running the country. Sounds like progress to me...

 

true but it'd be better to be liked and it's taken until now to reach this point, when the country is starving and getting very obviously abandoned by the government.

 

I don't see much of a future for a Labour government elected on these terms.

It's an absolute tragedy that this country will never vote for a party that genuinely wants to make life better for the poorest and build a more progressive, tolerant society rather than continuing to enrich the elite and continue the cynical politics of division but we are where we are. So we have to get Starmer in as the least worst option. And in coalition with the Lib Dems maybe necessary too which I would like as rate Ed Davey far higher than Statmer.

It's an absolute tragedy that this country will never vote for a party that genuinely wants to make life better for the poorest and build a more progressive, tolerant society rather than continuing to enrich the elite and continue the cynical politics of division but we are where we are. So we have to get Starmer in as the least worst option. And in coalition with the Lib Dems maybe necessary too which I would like as rate Ed Davey far higher than Statmer.

 

That’s what the Thatcherite programme was all about from the very start though to break the social bonds in society that defined the 20th century and therefore making a more individualistic electorate who would therefore be inward looking andtherefore more likely to be right wing and conservative!

@1521157622912765953

I'm glad Labour have been consistently keeping a lead over the tories. Hopefully Thursdays election results will be to their benefit!

I predict the Lib Dems to do very well in the South against the Tories but the Labour fightback against the Tories in the Red Wall to be muted sadly.

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YouGov MRP Klaxon: YouGov MRP: Boris Johnson set to lose seat as Labour sweep scores of key battleground constituencies

 

Looking at ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labour are principle the challengers to the Conservatives, and there is yet more pain for the governing party. Every seat in London and the South under the battleground definition falls to Keir Starmer’s party: from Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, to Steve Baker’s seat in Wycombe, to the marginal bellwether of Southampton Itchen, Labour sweep the board.

 

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YouGov MRP Klaxon: YouGov MRP: Boris Johnson set to lose seat as Labour sweep scores of key battleground constituencies

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That is certainly amazing for Labour. :cheer: Shame we won't be getting a snap general election anytime soon. Let's hope Labour continue with their lead until the next one.

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The Lib Dems on 15% KLAXON.

Hopefully the fiscally conservative will abandon Tories to the loony far right and Blojo worshippers, jump to thr Lib Dems, and we can get THE EVIL TORY bast*rdS OUT!!!!

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