Snp majority looking likely according to polls oft

I'm still not very optimistic and I think the polling averages are going to hide lots of unionist tactical voting under the surface for the constituencies. The projection for an average poll tends to show 10 or less non-SNP constituency wins, against 14 in 2016, but I'm not sure how realistic this is.

 

Ballot Box's profiles of marginal seats are quite interesting. When you look more closely at SNP-held constituencies such as Perthshire South, you can see how the SNP vote can go up a few percent on 2016 (as polling averages show) but get overtaken by the Tories benefitting from the Lib Dem and Labour vote getting squeezed.

 

And I think unionist Labour and Lib Dem voters - as well as Tories in, say, Lib Dem-held Edinburgh Western - will find it quite easy to get behind the main unionist challenger in an election about the union. It was the SNP who actually benefited from Labour and Lib Dem voters tactically voting in 2019, but that was a Brexit and Tory-opposition election. Those differences don't matter as much anymore, but the SNP vs. Labour position on the union is much more significant.

 

With fewer constituencies won, the SNP's list votes will start to matter more, especially in the North East, Mid & Fife and South Scotland. And yet the SNP's list vote is looking pretty uninspiring. Without sweeping constituencies, the 2-3% that Alba draw from them could indeed hurt here.

 

I was too pessimistic at the SNP's hopes in 2019 so let's hope I am here too. There will be a pro-indy majority regardless but I think certain sections of the media will portray a very convincing SNP plurality as not being a mandate for a referendum.

Right, so I was all for Scotland going its own way when the polls showed clear majorities, with the people getting ignored by Westminster. However, 1 million Scots live in the rest of the UK, and they are "fiercely unionist", but they are denied a vote. Meanwhile, all Europeans in Scotland at the time of the referendum can vote, regardless of how long they have been in the country. Surely this is unfair? How can the referendum be democratic if the one million in other parts of the UK don't get a say in it? This is also true r.e brexshit and elections and people outside of thr UK for ten years not being able to vote. Surely the 1 million Scots elsewhere need to be brough in for the decision to be wholly democratic?

The non-UK Scottish diaspora runs to the tens of millions, do you want us to give them a vote too? This is a change that impacts the people who *live* in Scotland and should be taken by the people who *live* there. The Scottish diaspora in rUK won’t lose the right to live there, they’re still going to be British after this and will have the option to claim their dual British/Scottish nationality should they chose. But they don’t live in Scotland and independence doesn’t impact their daily lives. It gives them a new passport if they want it. No one has ever suggested that Scotland leaves the CTA so they won’t need to deal with a border crossing to drive north. So the diaspora will see no difference to their daily lives.

 

So in that context, how is it democratic for a diaspora to decide the future day to day running of a country they chose to leave and who’s day to day governance they are wholly unimpacted by. They’re not voting in holyrood elections. They weren’t consulted when creating Holyrood or Cardiff Bay.

 

Anyone over 16 who lives in Scotland can vote at Holyrood regardless of how long they’ve been in the Country. They pay taxes and are impacted by the decisions Holyrood makes. That is democracy at its finest. Defranchising People who Are most impacted in favour of people who aren’t is anti-democratic Tory nonsense. Noting that you’re currently siding with only the Tories on this issue......

 

Just say you’re now a unionist and move on. It’s shorter.

I live in Germany. Why should I get a vote at Holyrood or my council election where I’m not impacted by the result? (I don’t for the record)

 

Westminster, yes because they have power over the implementation of the EU WA and the actions of the UK gov to EU citizens in UK has reciprocated impacts on UK citizens in the EU. Also they have power to negotiate with EU on improving our rights here

I'm not a unionist, but surely the diaspora deserves to keep their right to vote, particularly in generational referenda? I think it should be like the USA, where you never lose the right. I say that about EVERYTHING, including Brexshit. I see it as disenfranchisement to strip the vote from anyone.

I'm not a unionist, but surely the diaspora deserves to keep their right to vote, particularly in generational referenda? I think it should be like the USA, where you never lose the right. I say that about EVERYTHING, including Brexshit. I see it as disenfranchisement to strip the vote from anyone.

It is, though, rather harder to define who is Scottish. At the risk of incurring the wrath of some people here, Scottish doesn't really exist as an official nationality any more than English does.

Yeh it would open up a whole can of worms!

How long do you live in Scotland to acquire voting rights. What if you’re English born, live in Scotland for a decade then go back to England? Are you now able to vote in Scotland for the next 75 years? What about folks like me who were born on an overseas military base? Our nationality is declared at birth, mine is English, does that mean I can never vote in Scotland? Even tho I grew up there and lived there for over 25 of my 31 years?

 

It’s a ridiculous and unworkable idea. Which is why in 2014 The franchise was defined as those living in Scotland and eligible to vote at Holyrood. It’s easily definable. No reason to change the parameters of the vote, unless you’re a unionists terrified of democracy and losing access to Scotland’s natural resources

It is, though, rather harder to define who is Scottish. At the risk of incurring the wrath of some people here, Scottish doesn't really exist as an official nationality any more than English does.

I agree. While I take the „we’re aw jock Tamsons bairns“ approach to being Scottish, there’s no legal definition we can use

How long do you live in Scotland to acquire voting rights. What if you’re English born, live in Scotland for a decade then go back to England? Are you now able to vote in Scotland for the next 75 years? What about folks like me who were born on an overseas military base? Our nationality is declared at birth, mine is English, does that mean I can never vote in Scotland? Even tho I grew up there and lived there for over 25 of my 31 years?

 

It’s a ridiculous and unworkable idea. Which is why in 2014 The franchise was defined as those living in Scotland and eligible to vote at Holyrood. It’s easily definable. No reason to change the parameters of the vote, unless you’re a unionists terrified of democracy and losing access to Scotland’s natural resources

 

That is a good point, but I actually know a couple who were just away from Scotland for a few years before goin back, and they're back now, and they couldn't vote. They didn't say which way, and I didn't ask, but I know it was unfair. Surely those who have been on the Scottish electoral roll at ANY point, regardless of time frame, deserve the vote? That will cover the diaspora. Again, I say this about EVERYTHING. Check. I said the same about UK immigrants in the EU being unable to vote in elections or the brexshit poll. If I now say, oh, only people in the country at the time deserve a vote, then I am being a hypocrite. This is how the USA does it. It never removes the franchise. And on the Union, Scottish independence is inevitable after disastrous Tory governments, brexshit, and 80% indie support among 34s and under. I'm arguing about the franchise - which the UK is terrible with - not against indie, which will happen. The Tories broke the country.

 

Oh, I know the Tories argue this - I saw it in a Tory paper, which made me think about possible disenfranchisement. The difference is I argue the point - eternal franchise (and a massive overhaul if the electoral system plus booting out Tory donors running postal votes) - consistently for everything, even when NOT in my favour. Tories are just being opportunistic, and they clearly don't believe in the eternal franchise, or it wouldn't tun out after 10 years of living abroad. If it's impossible to manage this for THIS referendum, and it sounds like it might be because of people moving around between England and Scotland, then it isn't an issue, but we really should enjoy the unwavering RIGHT to vote, regardless of location or time away. Local elections are different, which is why, when we were in the EU, we could vote in local elections wherever we were based at the time.

That is a good point, but I actually know a couple who were just away from Scotland for a few years before goin back, and they're back now, and they couldn't vote. They didn't say which way, and I didn't ask, but I know it was unfair. Surely those who have been on the Scottish electoral roll at ANY point, regardless of time frame, deserve the vote? That will cover the diaspora. Again, I say this about EVERYTHING. Check. I said the same about UK immigrants in the EU being unable to vote in elections or the brexshit poll. If I now say, oh, only people in the country at the time deserve a vote, then I am being a hypocrite. This is how the USA does it. It never removes the franchise. And on the Union, Scottish independence is inevitable after disastrous Tory governments, brexshit, and 80% indie support among 34s and under. I'm arguing about the franchise - which the UK is terrible with - not against indie, which will happen. The Tories broke the country.

 

Oh, I know the Tories argue this - I saw it in a Tory paper, which made me think about possible disenfranchisement. The difference is I argue the point - eternal franchise (and a massive overhaul if the electoral system plus booting out Tory donors running postal votes) - consistently for everything, even when NOT in my favour. Tories are just being opportunistic, and they clearly don't believe in the eternal franchise, or it wouldn't tun out after 10 years of living abroad. If it's impossible to manage this for THIS referendum, and it sounds like it might be because of people moving around between England and Scotland, then it isn't an issue, but we really should enjoy the unwavering RIGHT to vote, regardless of location or time away. Local elections are different, which is why, when we were in the EU, we could vote in local elections wherever we were based at the time.

But that would mean someone of my age who had lived in Scotland for a year would get the vote. That makes no sense to me.

This has to be one of the dumbest things I’ve read on this website. Eternal franchise is a horrific idea. I don’t live in Salford anymore, why on earth should I have a vote for Salford City Council or the Greater Manchester Mayor? That’s insane. How on earth do I vote from Berlin in these elections? Proxy? Postal? Who is paying for all the extra counters needed? Wont people have 16391629 voting opportunities now? I was on the electoral register at 3 addresses in Salford, is that three votes? What about when I was registered in Dundee? Can I now vote in NE Fife, Dundee West and Salford Quays & Ordsall? Or only one? If one how do you chose which one?

 

I could go on And on. This is completely unworkable and illogical

Just do what they do in NI and register everyone in Milltown Cemetary to vote for SF!!

Edited April 28, 20214 yr by steve201

This has to be one of the dumbest things I’ve read on this website. Eternal franchise is a horrific idea. I don’t live in Salford anymore, why on earth should I have a vote for Salford City Council or the Greater Manchester Mayor? That’s insane. How on earth do I vote from Berlin in these elections? Proxy? Postal? Who is paying for all the extra counters needed? Wont people have 16391629 voting opportunities now? I was on the electoral register at 3 addresses in Salford, is that three votes? What about when I was registered in Dundee? Can I now vote in NE Fife, Dundee West and Salford Quays & Ordsall? Or only one? If one how do you chose which one?

 

I could go on And on. This is completely unworkable and illogical

 

It relates ONLY to referenda and general elections, not local.

Then where do I vote? I named three constituencies in that post. So which do I vote in? Do I vote in all three? Isn’t me having three votes anti-democratic? If I can only vote in one, how do you check that and police that? If I can only vote in one how don’t chose? And if I chose where I’m living now why should I have rights in perpetuity to vote in the other two? Where does this insanity stop? My parents are both from the City of Chester, do I get ancestoral voting rights there? I have a lot of family in North Wales, do I now get a vote in referenda in Wales regarding the assembly and Welsh independence?

So Silas is actually English :frankie:

Next you’ll be telling me he’s a unionist 😂

So Silas is actually English :frankie:

Technically, owing to a quirk of the military birth certificate, yes

 

Next you’ll be telling me he’s a unionist 😂

I was once upon a time. My conversion has been fully documented in this forum! In 2014 before the ref my preference was DevoMax!!! I voted Yes but have become more and more swayed since.

Independence down to 41% it’s lowest since 2019!

I'm guessing though that if the SNP+Green+Alba get an overall majority then Sturgeon can say she has a mandate for calling a referendum at the time of her choosing. Post vaccine bounce will be a good time.