...and boost confidence in the economy recovering, give people a light at the end of the tunnel, and reassure those that are still gravely concerned....

I'm sure the UK government is making quarantine exit plans, just like any other government. But at the moment the country is so deep in the Covid-19 hole, there is no real light at the end of the tunnel yet. Once the number of new infections and deaths drops significantly (Let's say, 50, 60%), they might become more open about their plans and even offer some tentative dates.

 

Patience. At the moment, the UK citizens need to be patient and follow the social distancing rules as much as possible. The examples of Italy and Spain can show you how long it takes before the situation gets better. And Italy and Spain are still in a very bad shape and will take their time with re-opening.

But if you reopen in a situation where people are still scared of going out, then the economy won't recover, there'll be no consumer confidence, and any further outbreaks will send everything right back into lockdown.

 

The other thing is that right now, there's a bit of solidarity for those who are already unfortunate enough to be out of work due to this, because it is knowingly completely out of their control. If there's a rush to reopen the economy without an exit strategy for regrowing it, then you send a lot of people into the point where their unemployment is now their personal responsibility again that they can do nothing about, and that's not going to be good for mental health either.

 

Basically the system is not going to go back to normal anytime soon and none of the options are particularly appealing. That's why Starmer's call for thinking about an exit strategy is the right way of thinking, there needs to be a steady and staged plan for getting out of this that isn't rushed because of the need for capitalism to get back on its feet no matter the human cost.

 

As such tentative steps like Germany's above are the right thing, slow, careful and don't rush for the sake of "the economy".

 

Oh yes totally 100%, it would be crazy to go from zero to one hundred. It will be a steady re-opening, which is the right thing to do. Agree with Merkel that unfortunately until there is a vaccine we can't all just hide inside forever, but at least now people know the threat is real and we have the right infastructure in place (which should have been done in February).

 

I don't understand why the government keep insisting that this isn't the time to be thinking about an exit strategy. Nobody is yet calling for a firm strategy with specific dates attached, but a rough idea of how they expect things to go would be helpful. At the very least, it might give us some confidence that the eventual strategy has been considered carefully rather than thrown together in a ten-minute Zoom conference.

 

Yes, we know that the initial version might undergo changes in the light of experience elsewhere but, again, that might lead to more confidence that it has been thought through properly.

 

I think talking about an exit strategy in the open is the wrong idea when we are still yet to hit the peak. Now I am not the biggest fan of the goverment and I know many people in here also aren't as well, but talking about an exit strategy in the open immediately tells people we are over the worst (when we are not) and secondly even giving a vague idea, journalists will press for dates. I've a friend who works for PHE and there's definitely a strategy out there (he can't/won't share) but either it's not been signed off yet by the government or they don't want to say anything just yet.

 

Oh yes totally 100%, it would be crazy to go from zero to one hundred. It will be a steady re-opening, which is the right thing to do. Agree with Merkel that unfortunately until there is a vaccine we can't all just hide inside forever, but at least now people know the threat is real and we have the right infastructure in place (which should have been done in February).

I think talking about an exit strategy in the open is the wrong idea when we are still yet to hit the peak. Now I am not the biggest fan of the goverment and I know many people in here also aren't as well, but talking about an exit strategy in the open immediately tells people we are over the worst (when we are not) and secondly even giving a vague idea, journalists will press for dates. I've a friend who works for PHE and there's definitely a strategy out there (he can't/won't share) but either it's not been signed off yet by the government or they don't want to say anything just yet.

Which means they are lying - again. They refuse even to acknowledge that a strategy is being discussed, thereby leaving people to fear that we could be months away from even starting to come out of this.

 

Journalists have shown no inclination to press for answers on anything so far. Why would they suddenly start to get more insistent on the matter of specific dates?

Which means they are lying - again. They refuse even to acknowledge that a strategy is being discussed, thereby leaving people to fear that we could be months away from even starting to come out of this.

 

Journalists have shown no inclination to press for answers on anything so far. Why would they suddenly start to get more insistent on the matter of specific dates?

 

Politicians lie all the time. I think even mentioning an exit plan right now is premature- it needs to be timed after we are inevitably put in to lockdown further. I think until we reach this magical peak I don’t think we’re going to see anything in the media about an exit plan. I also imagine they are watching what other countries do too, so you’d think they would have a similar strategy.

 

 

Merkel gave a really fab press conference today where she explained in detail the impact of the reproductive factor of the virus. It’s had English subs added to it and is well worth a watch.

 

@1250563198081740800

 

 

It’s really reassuring to have her guiding me through this.

Politicians lie all the time. I think even mentioning an exit plan right now is premature- it needs to be timed after we are inevitably put in to lockdown further. I think until we reach this magical peak I don’t think we’re going to see anything in the media about an exit plan. I also imagine they are watching what other countries do too, so you’d think they would have a similar strategy.

They don’t lie all the time. Cummings and co. have exploited the fact that many people think that and have been getting away with it.

 

Germany is about to start lifting its restrictions. They introduced theirs just a few days before the UK. How, then, does it make us look when our government won’t even tell us they have got as far as a piece of paper with the words “Exit Plan” at the top?

 

If I was, for example, a restaurant owner and the government didn’t expect restaurants to open until three months after the start of the exit process, I would want to know that now. I would want to know that I can expect my business to remain closed for at least another four months.

They don’t lie all the time. Cummings and co. have exploited the fact that many people think that and have been getting away with it.

 

Germany is about to start lifting its restrictions. They introduced theirs just a few days before the UK. How, then, does it make us look when our government won’t even tell us they have got as far as a piece of paper with the words “Exit Plan” at the top?

 

If I was, for example, a restaurant owner and the government didn’t expect restaurants to open until three months after the start of the exit process, I would want to know that now. I would want to know that I can expect my business to remain closed for at least another four months.

 

But Germany was also far greater prepared and used their resources better. Their government is far more experienced and most of us called it at the time, the Cabinet Boris put together was largely full of people who were overpromoted for their ideologies rather than their political skills.

 

I just don't think putting even an idea of an exit strategy is the right thing as immeditately it spells the message that this thing is over to a lot of people, when the unfortunate reality is it's not going to over until there is a vaccine or we have some sort of herd immunity.

But seeing other countries easing restrictions is also going to make people think it's fine to do more here too. There needs to be some clear communications about some form of plan to allow people to prepare properly, but also knowing that the plan is far from set in stone and would change to respond with changing situations and what we've learned from other countries who ease restrictions earlier. A vague date of when things might start to be lifted what type of things will be eased back in first, it's not difficult.

 

It was only earlier this week that apparently 10 members of the cabinet wanted to end lockdown restrictions soon, we need to know there is some form of plan for this and it's not going to be rushed and make us worse off again.

Edited April 16, 20205 yr by RabbitFurCoat

Look, you can't compare the UK to Germany. It doesn't matter when Germany introduced their restrictions in comparison to the UK - the situation in Germany never got as bad as it is now in the UK. There is no point in talking about lifting of the restrictions right now, you are so deep in the hole.

 

If anyone needs a vague idea of how the country will re-open, you can look at the exit plans of the other countries. You don't need anyothing more right now. Once the numbers of new infections and deaths significantly drop and there is an established trend of decline, expect the government to start talking about their exit plans and tentative dates.

But seeing other countries easing restrictions is also going to make people think it's fine to do more here too. There needs to be some clear communications about some form of plan to allow people to prepare properly, but also knowing that the plan is far from set in stone and would change to respond with changing situations and what we've learned from other countries who ease restrictions earlier. A vague date of when things might start to be lifted what type of things will be eased back in first, it's not difficult.

 

It was only earlier this week that apparently 10 members of the cabinet wanted to end lockdown restrictions soon, we need to know there is some form of plan for this and it's not going to be rushed and make us worse off again.

 

But did Germany, Spain, Denmark, Austria etc. all share their exit plans while in lockdown with the general public.. I have no idea, but I would assume the answer is no. I just don't think it is a very good idea, I mean what benefit does it bring? All it brings right now is fale hope and sends the wrong message that we are out of the worst of it. It's the same mentality of the budget airlines starting to offer flights again in a few months, so they can take people's money for their cashflow and offer people credits.

 

A 3 week lockdown gets us to 8th May iirc, which is the day before the Bank Holiday. I'd expect any changes to be announced as taking effect that following Monday and used as some form of nationalism.

I'm also in the mindset that they should definitely be preparing some form of exit strategy but that it must be kept tightly under wraps for now. Lesser of 2 evils imo. The public knowing a potential date is certainly good for those who have vested interests in their businesses etc. but we all know there are far too many idiots who would take it as an opportunity to begin flouting the rules prematurely.

Belgium shared the rough order in which sectors would open

The Netherlands have asked alls ectors to come up with their plan on how they're gonna handle the 1.5m social distancing if they get to reopen.

 

I'm sure Germany has always said that schools would open first.

 

The people need something to look forward to. I mean Belgium just reopened DIY stores to make sure people have shit to do while being at home cause the strict lockdown rules caused people to bend those rules and go out anyway

Yes. They all announced before the lockdown ended what restrictions would be lifted and when.

 

I posted Germany’s Exit Plan literally yesterday. It had been drafted internally a while before that and then constantly refined. Difference being that Germany has a federal government that has more intelligence and competence in their finger nail cuttings than exists in Whitehall and the UK Gov.

Yes. They all announced before the lockdown ended what restrictions would be lifted and when.

 

I posted Germany’s Exit Plan literally yesterday. It had been drafted internally a while before that and then constantly refined. Difference being that Germany has a federal government that has more intelligence and competence in their finger nail cuttings than exists in Whitehall and the UK Gov.

 

Ah okay then I stand corrected. But I still don't think it's a great idea for the UK at least. All the examples of countries who have shared their plans so far are less severely hit (although slightly surprised about Belgium as I thought they were hit pretty hard too). I am just of the view point that no plan should be public knowledge until we are over the worst of it and have got testing at a competent level or these famous antibody tests that are actually reliable.

They appear to be hit hard but they are over reporting. All deaths in carecenters are reported as coronacases, even if it was just a heart attack. They are past their peak though. There is a day on day decline in ICU cases and active cases

Germany has been hard hit but has performed almost 2m tests and has hit that plateau where the curve has been flattened. There was a tweet yesterday that really summed up why germany is at a relaxing stage and the UK isn’t. The capacity in the healthcare system is astronomical.

 

@1250480192906092544

 

Germany has never been close to that tipping point where the healthcare system collapses but that doesn’t mean it’s not been hit by a landslide of cases.

 

 

I think the uk should be open about it’s exit strategy. Even if it is what Germany indicated a week ago that when we come out it’d be small shops first and it’d take longer for most large stores and restaurants to open. That alone helps and gives some clarity to business. It also gives people the assurance that the gov is planning and is thinking about where we go next

Germany has been hard hit but has performed almost 2m tests and has hit that plateau where the curve has been flattened. There was a tweet yesterday that really summed up why germany is at a relaxing stage and the UK isn’t. The capacity in the healthcare system is astronomical.

 

@1250480192906092544

 

Germany has never been close to that tipping point where the healthcare system collapses but that doesn’t mean it’s not been hit by a landslide of cases.

I think the uk should be open about it’s exit strategy. Even if it is what Germany indicated a week ago that when we come out it’d be small shops first and it’d take longer for most large stores and restaurants to open. That alone helps and gives some clarity to business. It also gives people the assurance that the gov is planning and is thinking about where we go next

 

But this is the big difference between what other countries are doing and where we are with the UK - we are 3 weeks away (minimum) before any lockdown is going to be restricted. Giving an idea now sends out totally the wrong message. Fair enough if the situation appears to have reached a peak and levelling off. In two weeks if there is no sudden increase then yes, totally announce as much as you want, but right now in terms of what I know about communications strategy in general there is no benefit for announcing in public the post-lockdown plan.

 

New Zealand announced the plan for moving from Level 4 to Level 3 today IF things don't get any worse, which would take effect this coming Monday. An approach like that would be sensible. Manage expectations 5-7 days before, rather than 21 days minimum.

The trouble is our government won't even say that they are considering an exit strategy. If they are actually telling the truth, they are even more useless than I thought.

 

Perhaps they could explain their lack of a plan like this

 

"Yes, some countries are starting to announce their plans to come out of this. Some have even started to implement those plans. The difference is that some countries have a government run by grown-ups. We have one led by Boris Johnson, the Dominics Raab and Cummings and a Home Secretary who can't read numbers from a piece of paper. Tough."

OTOH we do have governments announcing scalebacks based on these facts:

 

Reported coronavirus deaths:

 

Feb. 15: 0 deaths

Mar. 15: 65 deaths

Apr. 15: 30,844 deaths

 

Anyone care to guess what May 15 totals will be?

 

Can you guess who thinks he has absolute power over other politicians and States and when they reduce lockdown?

 

Hint: Orange. Wannabe Dictator. Loves suck-ups. Hates anyone who fails to suck-up. Adores fellow dictators. Is a moron, a serial cheater, liar, has his own family in key government posts, has many sexual abuse cases pending, and is selling ventilators to Russia because it's not his job to make sure States in his country have enough of them or anything else. Except that he says he has absolute power over them all. Except when he contradicts himself. Which is always. Cos he's a f***ing moron.