Posted March 18, 20232 yr Who will qualify from the semi final of death in Semi One? Who will scrape through in Semi Two because ten songs have got to qualify? Where will the UK finish in the final? Will Sweden get their seventh victory and Loreen her second crown? BuzzJack, start predicting NOW!
March 18, 20232 yr Author Semi Final One Safe Sweden Finland Given I'm reasonably sure this will be the top 2 of the whole contest, I would be truly shocked if either of these two went out. Solid Czechia Norway Moldova Israel Serbia Pretty sure all of these are through but it's at least theoretically possible that there could be some turn of events that leads to one of these being the "shock" non qualifier. Of all of them I'd maybe put Serbia as the most likely surprise flop if people react to it the same way they reacted to Conan Osiris in 2019 Borderline IN Malta Croatia Portugal Borderline OUT Netherlands Latvia I see three out of these five going through and it came down to what I thought had the most appeal to televoters which led me to this conclusion. I ummed and errred over Portugal and Netherlands the most and what swung it for Ai Coracao was the fact that I know there'll be at least one guaranteed high point from the French televote whereas the Dutch start out with 0 televotes in the bank (welcome back to 100% televoting ladies!) Struggling Switzerland Azerbaijan Ireland Don't get me wrong, it's not impossible that these three go through but it'll be at the expense of at least one of the borderline countries and/or a heavy investment in SIM cards in low volume televote countries.
April 5, 20232 yr Author Post-running orders, this is my current best guess at how I see the semis playing out Semi One 01 Sweden 02 Finland 03 Norway 04 Czechia 05 Croatia 06 Israel 07 Moldova 08 Serbia 09 Netherlands 10 Portugal 11 Latvia 12 Malta 13 Azerbaijan 14 Switzerland 15 Ireland Semi Two 01 Austria 02 Georgia 03 Australia 04 Armenia 05 Lithuania 06 Cyprus 07 Belgium 08 Slovenia 09 Denmark 10 Albania 11 Estonia 12 Greece 13 Poland 14 Iceland 15 Romania 16 San Marino
April 5, 20232 yr Realistically I don't think Estonia will NQ as Alika has really good vocals, so she will deliver an exceptional performance on the night. I would swap Denmark with Estonia here. Latvia seems to be well-received by the fandom too, so I won't be surprised if they qualify ahead of, let's say, the Netherlands or Serbia.
April 5, 20232 yr It would be a shame if Serbia didn't qualify with such an artistic and impactful piece.
April 5, 20232 yr Author Realistically I don't think Estonia will NQ as Alika has really good vocals, so she will deliver an exceptional performance on the night. I would swap Denmark with Estonia here. Latvia seems to be well-received by the fandom too, so I won't be surprised if they qualify ahead of, let's say, the Netherlands or Serbia. I think that whole 9th-13th in Semi 2 is the could go either way section. I don't think vocals alone is quite enough in a 100% televote semi and I'm confident there's at least 8 songs with stronger televote appeal. Estonia's probably fighting it out with Albania for that last slot and I think the latter has got a little bit more diasporic vote to push it over the line. It would be a shame if Serbia didn't qualify with such an artistic and impactful piece. For all that I put it in eighth place I'm pretty solid that it'll get through - only risk is if the Tuesday night crowd don't "get" the artistic element of the performance after 12 more songs.
April 5, 20232 yr I don't think Switzerland is at any danger. It would be 11/12 at worst. They've got France, Italy and Germany voting in the SF, maximum of 36 points available right there
April 17, 20232 yr I don't really see any other song winning the televote but Finland, therefore it will win its televote only semi too. Its overall chance in the final is absolutely dependent on how much juries dampen its chances. If it's in the top five with them then he still has a good shot, unless Sweden is very close on the televote, as it's bound to be higher with juries. Will be very interesting between these two. Lots of people are hyping Spain as being in the top three mix - she is a technically impressive vocalist so will I guess do really well with juries but is that song really going to crossover to televoters? I feel like they usually avoid anything like that like the plague. It's not exactly an earworm hit, I don't really see it coming higher than about 10th on the televote, so juries are going to have to go crazy over it. Also, I do see Malta qualifying this time. I know their recent televote record is not strong, but this song has a lot of appeal, I can see the public lapping it up.
April 17, 20232 yr I don't think Switzerland is at any danger. It would be 11/12 at worst. They've got France, Italy and Germany voting in the SF, maximum of 36 points available right there Idk. I can see France and Italy going for it but all the boring insipid crap like this absolutely bombed the German NF
April 17, 20232 yr Well Switzerland's entry has a bit of oomph to it, which makes me think it won't suffer as much as typical ballads do. Still I think this would be a borderline qualifier.
April 17, 20232 yr I expect Switzerland to qualify and then do better in the final with the jury vote I also think Sweden will win the televote, with Finland 2nd
April 17, 20232 yr it may be my absolute loathing of it but I think of all the songs in semi 1 bar Netherlands, Switzerland is going to be the one that most loses out on not having access to semi-final juries. Is some non-descript ballad in between Croatia and Israel of all songs is going to soak up enough points on the televote? I'd honestly be surprised if France gives it a single nod, though Germany might. Especially given the evidence from last year that dark brooding ballads only got to the final thanks to juries pretty much.
April 17, 20232 yr It will definitely be job done if Sweden win the televote. I'd love to see it, although Euphoria was only narrowly ahead of the Russian Grannies on the televote in 2012, and Sweden haven't been in the televote top five since 2015, despite juries constantly boosting them higher in the final results. What Tattoo does have going for it vs Cha Cha Cha is that it's already becoming quite a big hit across Europe.
April 17, 20232 yr plus like if Switzerland's going anywhere due to its message, again, Croatia has the 'f**k Putin' angle which has got to be better than the 'pacifism angle/war is bad k' (never been a huge vote winner) for driving votes. I'm in on Finland winning televote, it has that feeling. Tattoo somewhere in the top 5 but probably winning juries.
April 18, 20232 yr I don't really see any other song winning the televote but Finland, therefore it will win its televote only semi too. Its overall chance in the final is absolutely dependent on how much juries dampen its chances. If it's in the top five with them then he still has a good shot, unless Sweden is very close on the televote, as it's bound to be higher with juries. Will be very interesting between these two. Lots of people are hyping Spain as being in the top three mix - she is a technically impressive vocalist so will I guess do really well with juries but is that song really going to crossover to televoters? I feel like they usually avoid anything like that like the plague. It's not exactly an earworm hit, I don't really see it coming higher than about 10th on the televote, so juries are going to have to go crazy over it. Also, I do see Malta qualifying this time. I know their recent televote record is not strong, but this song has a lot of appeal, I can see the public lapping it up. I do feel similar with Malta but my question is… what falls out of Norway, Malta and Serbia? Have the first three songs of a semi ever all made it? Malta feels the most likely of the 3, I think it’s running order causes it big problems.
April 18, 20232 yr I do feel similar with Malta but my question is… what falls out of Norway, Malta and Serbia? Have the first three songs of a semi ever all made it? Malta feels the most likely of the 3, I think it’s running order causes it big problems. I was about to put a bet on it qualifying yesterday and then had the same thought and stopped myself. I'm so annoyed the producers gave them such an awful draw, when they never do that well on the televote in the first place. But I do still think it has a shot, it feels very televote friendly, but then it's such a strong semi that it could well be forgotten after the big hitters have been on. Apart from Ireland and, I guess, Azerbaijan (but I never dare count them out and it's a sweet song), there is a case for everything qualifying. The Netherlands definitely feels like it could be in danger in a televote semi, the more I hear it the less like a hit it sounds. Doesn't seem like they've been impressing live either.
April 18, 20232 yr What do people now think about Ukraine? They were favourites for a while until Sweden and Finland came out and they've been falling odds wise since. Should we count them out? It's hard to know how well televote wise I guess. Could they beat Finland on the televote?
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