No

I find it difficult to do odds/predictions and be objective about it and not let my personal taste influence what I think are the better/worst of the bunch because let's face it, my taste isn't going to reflect the general consensus which is the main reason I don't do them as chances are I'll be way off. Similarly, I think there's enough variety in the participants and what does well that nobody can really be seen as the tastemaker.

 

That's not to say that wasn't the case in the past when it was the same few countries doing well every month but I like to think we've moved away from that considerably this year. It feels like it's anyone's game tbh, which is how it should be. I don't think there's a code to crack when it comes to picking a winning song but then people will say things like "this sounds like a winner" but literally how? What is it that makes it sound like it would have that sort of appeal? I've never understood that tbh

 

I don't think the odds and precisions thread influences much, if anything but I'd be interested to know what criteria people use against songs in determining where they'll fall in their odds ?

I would say several factors influence my odds: hype/buzz/reaction for songs either on the listenthroughs, in national threads or during the semi results; artist past performance; whether the song has done well on other contests outside BuzzJack (e.g. PJSC); whether the country has been on a recent roll with results (it shouldn't have any bearing on the results, but sometimes it almost feels like a self-fulfilling prophecy that if a country is consistently top ten, it's because they are picking songs with that high widespread appeal); whether the song has had any buzz or love outside of BuzzJack and just on blogs or on the radio; and finally - sometimes a song just sounds like it's going to be big by sound alone, especially if it has clear crossover appeal (alt-pop) or is going to hit its niche hard enough that it will quite clearly collect so many 18s (e.g. Fat Dog) that it doesn't matter if it appeals to the majority or not. And then it's impossible for personal taste not to come into it, so sometimes I do probably subconsciously give my own favourites a bump too in the hopes they will appeal to others in the same way - not to influence other voters, but just being optimstic that others like a big favourite of mine too.

 

Even taking into consideration all of the above, it's still possible to be very, very wrong - if e.g. you've missed pockets of hype growing in places you haven't looked, or if nobody has mentioned a song at all during the voting stages and it does well regardless (this is more likely to happen with pop entries, as the alt/electronic/indie countries traditionally tend to be more vocal about what they like and their favourites are easier to predict - some people basically reveal their top few votes in the voting thread when they say 'big hype to x, x, x and x').

 

I think when people say 'this sounds like a winner', I suppose it ticks many of the above boxes, or enough to likely mean it will do very well and could/should be in the mix. It's rare these days that we have runaway winners, which is testament to how high quality this contest has become, the votes are very thinly spread because there are so many good entries each time. So I find it very hard nowadays to declare 'this is sure to win'.

Edited October 29, 2024Oct 29 by gooddelta

There's no textbook to a winning entry, but there's definitely a lot of factors that can make you predict how an entry would do. Just like how people predict songs will do on the charts.

 

- how much crossover appeal the song as, will it appeal to both pop hoes and more alternative leaning countries

- does the song sound current

- does it stand out or have something unique or memorable about it

- have posters expressed love for the song, reactions in listenthroughs

 

There's also been obvious trends in past contests where for example, a female-lead vocal song is more likely to do better than a song performed by a male artist. Or an uptempo song is likely to do better than a ballad. Even certain genres are traditionally more risky than others. Trance is very hit and miss, and Afrohouse 9/10 times flops.

 

It's definitely not anything personal or a reflection of what the person whose making the prediction's taste is. And it's never influenced my votes. I stopped doing semi predictions cause people get upset about DNQ predictions and take it personally when it's not that deep. It's a song contest not a popularity contest.

I think semi predictions are easier to do than odds because if a semi is more alt leaning then the poppier entries are more at risk etc but I think if there's people investing in the odds and predictions without taking each one with an absolute heap of salt then they're just setting themselves up to be unhappy with them, it's nothing more than a bit of fun and adds a little more discussion to the contest. I think there's fear over saying you like something a lot in the general thread incase it gives away your votes so I tend to not give people their flowers until the final results thread due to that :lol:

 

"Hype to these 15 songs in no particular order, that's NO particular order.. " :kink:

I mean you can just ignore the threads if you want to.

In the least condescending way I can possibly say this, I think we all have to remember at the end of the day that we are not the country we’ve made up for an online contest. I’m Rob from Manchester, I’m not actually Hendinian, and I think when streaks of misfortune crop up in this contest then people have a tendency to think it’s a personal attack. And I do get the frustration but I’ve never seen any sign of things being personal in this contest. Other than maybe Aeroche/Klum and Ajanaeda/Mothertopia, who literally live together and may be naturally influenced by one another’s listening habits, I’ve rarely seen influence between other members towards their votes.

 

I can only speak for myself on Herbilore that I certainly don’t have any different feelings towards Herbs than I have done in any other month, but I gave you 6pts in this semi. I’d really encourage you to take a step back and remember that this contest is nothing more than 60 silly bast*rds pretending to be countries in a bid to discover new music.

 

And I do think predictions/odds are essential to the contest because otherwise there’d be no discussion for 7 days and the forum would be a ghost town. It creates talking points and hype, which then makes the results more exciting. If we censor discussion, then I do think you lose a centrepiece of what makes the contest more than just sending songs and forgetting about it for a week.

Afrohouse 9/10 times flops.

Glad to be the one that bucks the trend :P

 

TIL Ajanaeda and Mothertopia HoDs live together :o

Glad to be the one that bucks the trend :P

 

TIL Ajanaeda and Mothertopia HoDs live together :o

Me too!!! And I bloody follow Mothertopia's user on social media too - heya pet!! :lol:

Rob is right, if we didn't have odds threads, how would we be able to predict Hendinia to win before they get their 25th 3rd placer?!

I reserve the right to have spread false information on that front, maybe Mothertopia isn’t who I thought they were? :lol:

In the least condescending way I can possibly say this, I think we all have to remember at the end of the day that we are not the country we’ve made up for an online contest. I’m Rob from Manchester, I’m not actually Hendinian, and I think when streaks of misfortune crop up in this contest then people have a tendency to think it’s a personal attack. And I do get the frustration but I’ve never seen any sign of things being personal in this contest. Other than maybe Aeroche/Klum and Ajanaeda/Mothertopia, who literally live together and may be naturally influenced by one another’s listening habits, I’ve rarely seen influence between other members towards their votes.

 

I can only speak for myself on Herbilore that I certainly don’t have any different feelings towards Herbs than I have done in any other month, but I gave you 6pts in this semi. I’d really encourage you to take a step back and remember that this contest is nothing more than 60 silly bast*rds pretending to be countries in a bid to discover new music.

 

And I do think predictions/odds are essential to the contest because otherwise there’d be no discussion for 7 days and the forum would be a ghost town. It creates talking points and hype, which then makes the results more exciting. If we censor discussion, then I do think you lose a centrepiece of what makes the contest more than just sending songs and forgetting about it for a week.

 

Exactly all of this. This is something that we enter to show off something good from our natural music discovering journey, and while the competition is fun, people do get hung up on form, streaks, outcomes etc. instead of it being fun to do well AND an opportunity to discover music. Sucks when a song you've sent and like doesn't do well but it is not personal, it was probably just more niche or other people didn't agree.

 

Do I think the odds/predictions affect things? Probably yes, especially if one hasn't heard the songs and then goes in with preconceived expectations, which is why if I do predict, I predict later on, and wouldn't recommend to anyone that they read the odds thread before listening. Does it matter? Probably not. This is a social thing as much as it is a game and competition and there should be more talk about what will do well, I tend to remember contests with active odds threads far more than those with dead ones.

Rob is right, if we didn't have odds threads, how would we be able to predict Hendinia to win before they get their 25th 3rd placer?!

Also this.

 

(And I do recognise the irony in me, of all people, making a 3 paragraph post about how people should feel about not qualifying lmao)

(And I do recognise the irony in me, of all people, making a 3 paragraph post about how people should feel about not qualifying lmao)

I am resisting the urge to post that one Scarlet Witch quote

Do we need to start a BJSC family tree

I reserve the right to have spread false information on that front, maybe Mothertopia isn’t who I thought they were? :lol:

No, it’s true, Rob! We do sometimes test out BJSC potentials over the speaker when making Hello Fresh together so I must admit that his entries often get stuck in my head already, haha :lol:

Is Ajatopia (or Mothernada?) the new Brangelina?! Feel like a tabloid celeb the way my living arrangements are all over the buzzjack gossip forums :P

also the Josh/elgornio relationship is news to me, why do I feel like this is kinda wholesome tho

In the least condescending way I can possibly say this, I think we all have to remember at the end of the day that we are not the country we’ve made up for an online contest. I’m Rob from Manchester, I’m not actually Hendinian, and I think when streaks of misfortune crop up in this contest then people have a tendency to think it’s a personal attack. And I do get the frustration but I’ve never seen any sign of things being personal in this contest. Other than maybe Aeroche/Klum and Ajanaeda/Mothertopia, who literally live together and may be naturally influenced by one another’s listening habits, I’ve rarely seen influence between other members towards their votes.

 

I can only speak for myself on Herbilore that I certainly don’t have any different feelings towards Herbs than I have done in any other month, but I gave you 6pts in this semi. I’d really encourage you to take a step back and remember that this contest is nothing more than 60 silly bast*rds pretending to be countries in a bid to discover new music.

 

And I do think predictions/odds are essential to the contest because otherwise there’d be no discussion for 7 days and the forum would be a ghost town. It creates talking points and hype, which then makes the results more exciting. If we censor discussion, then I do think you lose a centrepiece of what makes the contest more than just sending songs and forgetting about it for a week.

 

I've tried to type a response to this a few times. And each time I hate what I wrote (maybe it makes me sound angry) and I delete it.

 

Understand the sentiment, however to put it down to one point - I think the competitions I've entered heavily feature female led pop vocals and experimental music. I accepted before that sending something different from that was a risk (and led to multiple non-Q for me). But then you get contests like this one where I am genuinely confused as to how some songs have qualified and others haven't (including my own female led pop vocal). The predictions seem to back this confusion up, as do other comments in the semi final thread.

 

 

But that's the beauty of it^ that it can be very unpredictable, and the competition is much better for it or else there wouldn't be any point even trying to enter something that doesn't fit such criteria. I've failed to qualify with female pop many times, and sometimes it's because there's too much of it so the votes get spreaded.