Question: if many of us chart nerds think that Last Christmas has it in the bag, why do the odds not reflect this? Is it possible that FONY will gain enough downloads?

Suppose none of us have taken into account a campaign which could steamroller a track to the top it’ll only need 60-65k!

I imagine quite a lot of money has been laid on the Pogues following Shane’s death, and so the bookies feel they need to offer relatively short odds for them in case it does somehow happen, but I haven’t seen anything that suggests to me that it will happen.

Question: if many of us chart nerds think that Last Christmas has it in the bag, why do the odds not reflect this? Is it possible that FONY will gain enough downloads?

 

Depends how many chart nerds have actually put money on Last Christmas.

 

FONY must've gained a lot of bets following Shane's death, so the odds are just reflecting that.

 

However it is odd to see What still 3/1 and Pogues 1/3

Can the media straight-up encourage people to download a song, or do they need to have guests do the nudging? For example, could they keep reminding viewers about the Christmas #1 song, giving the Pogues some love, without actually telling people to download it? I ask because they did a lot of this kind of thing on Good Morning Britain and This Morning before Ukraine won Eurovison, and they had guests telling viewers that Ukraine must win.

Edited December 5, 20231 yr by Chloe🎄

Can the media straight-up encourage people to download a song, or do they need to have guests do the nudging? For example, could they keep reminding viewers about the Christmas #1 song, giving the Pogues some love, without actually telling people to download it? I ask because they did a lot of this kind of thing on Good Morning Britain and This Morning before Ukraine won Eurovison, and they had guests telling viewers that Ukraine must win.

 

People are happy to vote at Eurovision - and they choose between songs. But people are generally not keen on the prospect of heading to iTunes to download a track. People just don’t download these days.

 

LadBaby managed it by providing a link to download from iTunes. I can’t manage that - when I try it directs to Apple Music streaming. Any idea how it’s done?

 

The Kunts manage it by having 20+ different remixes.

 

The other thing to notice is that odds for Wham! have been slashed from 8/1 to 3/1 in just 4 days or less. Pogues odds though still much better, have slowly been getting worse.

 

I’ve never been able to work out the best way to compare odds - is the best way to use a decimals setting? If so, Pogues are 1.33 and Wham! are 4 - so Pogues are, according to bookies, 3 times more likely to be number 1 (e.g 75% to 25% ignoring all other songs).

Question: if many of us chart nerds think that Last Christmas has it in the bag, why do the odds not reflect this? Is it possible that FONY will gain enough downloads?

 

The bookies are pretty slow/clueless when it comes to the charts! It's why Lorraine Kelly literally has better odds to be Christmas #01 than Jack Harlow.

Exactly yes^ or another way to look at it is if the situation is simulated 4 times, Pogues would win 3 times and Wham once.

The bookies are pretty slow/clueless when it comes to the charts! It's why Lorraine Kelly literally has better odds to be Christmas #01 than Jack Harlow.

 

Jack Harlow isn't even an option to bet on on SkyBet lol.

 

(And Foy Vance is 20/1??? Make that make sense)

Bet 365 has Peter Kay at 14/1 and Black Eyed Peas at 20/1???

 

(And LadBaby at 12/1)

Edited December 5, 20231 yr by Chloe🎄

I don't think it's completely out of the question - in the absence of LadBaby and considering a lot of people do still like to have a say in the Christmas chart - for enough of a download camapign to get going on Christmas week to shift 25-30k of The Pogues, which on top of their streams should be enough (depending on how many physicals Wham! can shift). I suppose, this year, if any campaign is going to be a success, it will be that one, which is why The Pogues are still at the top of the odds. There's still plenty of time for Warner to get a tribute CD single out there too, should they decide to do that.

 

Every Christmas No.1 race has a narrative that the media run with, and this year it will clearly be 'festive classic finally gets to No.1 after the death of its lead singer', or 'Last Christmas finally makes Christmas No.1'.

Edited December 5, 20231 yr by gooddelta

I think Last Christmas already getting to #1, albeit on a non-Xmas week, will take a lot of the steam out of any campaign for it to finally get the Xmas #1. I was going to put money on them at 5/1, but I just couldn’t rule out the possibility of a last-minute campaign either for The Pogues or some charity single. At this point I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if LadBaby came out of retirement for another last ever special Fairytale of Sausage Rolls lol.

At this point I genuinely wouldn’t be surprised if LadBaby came out of retirement for another last ever special Fairytale of Sausage Rolls lol.

 

omg don't even put that out into the world!! :drama:

 

Wham as low as 5/2.

I’m starting a campaign for Gregory Porter's "Christmas Wish" to be Christmas #1. It's a jolly little jazzy bop! :dance:

Edited December 5, 20231 yr by Chloe🎄

Jack Harlow x Dave confirmed for release this Friday, could be a real contender for xmas #1

Oh that's an interesting new contender at least - idk though, I'm not sure a Jack Harlow collab from Dave will inspire quite the same kind of numbers as the Central Cee collab (especially in its second week), and it may well still be overshadowed by 'Lovin On Me' anyway. Ofc depends on the song though.

It’ll most likely peak in the new year if anything.

Just read that the top tiktokers in the UK have joined forces to record a song and aim at the UK Xmas #1 :/ be afraid :/

 

https://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/t...Tonj2pUhRfWG_lk

Just read that the top tiktokers in the UK have joined forces to record a song and aim at the UK Xmas #1 :/ be afraid :/

 

https://www.officialcharts.com/chart-news/t...Tonj2pUhRfWG_lk

I'm fairly active on TikTok and see a lot of UK creators on there, but I have literally never heard of any of them. :lol:

 

edit: Oh no, I recognise OSHU - he's a weirdo.