In other news, all the councillors in the ward of Middleton Park in Leeds are now from the continuity SDP party after they won another seat there.

Starmer is an establishment scab!! No changw, just more Tory policies. Shame Corbyn didn't wait to run till after 2019. He'd p4obably be on 60%, with the disastrous government, all its crises, and whilst offering REQL, leftwing change and A PROPER DEMOCRATIC CHOICE!!

As is, we don't have a democracy. It's akin to Chinese elites choosing who runs in Hong Kong: all the same and vetted by those in power (here, rhe British establishment, media and state).

Biggest sign so far that Khan might be in trouble https://x.com/marwandata/status/1786433352037290476?s=46

 

Labour have taken York and North Yorkshire in the Mayor election. This is a massive win.

Susan Hall is an absolute unhinged NUTCASE. Pretty much on the Dorries sort of level.

Biggest sign so far that Khan might be in trouble https://x.com/marwandata/status/1786433352037290476?s=46

 

All figures out now and turnout was 40.5% which is 1.5% down on last time. Generally within the norm for the mayor elections though.

 

Hopefully he'll still win comfortably, although likely with a slightly lower lead than polls indicated - say about 5-8%.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nothing continuity about the SDP, really right wing and illiberal.

All figures out now and turnout was 40.5% which is 1.5% down on last time. Generally within the norm for the mayor elections though.

 

Hopefully he'll still win comfortably, although likely with a slightly lower lead than polls indicated - say about 5-8%.

 

It's just that all pro-khan areas are down and the outer London more Tory friendly areas are up. So if we were to replicate the last election it would within a razor tight margin if everybody voted the same, and if anything Khan lost supporters rather than gained.

 

I think it'll be within 5% or less either way but last week it was 99% Khan will win now I'd say 70%

Rishi Sunak's article in the telegraph is one hell of an exercise in denial.

Rishi Sunak's article in the telegraph is one hell of an exercise in denial.

 

I guess it’s a difficult thing to admit your government/party messing up the country for the last 14 years :lol:

It's just that all pro-khan areas are down and the outer London more Tory friendly areas are up. So if we were to replicate the last election it would within a razor tight margin if everybody voted the same, and if anything Khan lost supporters rather than gained.

 

I think it'll be within 5% or less either way but last week it was 99% Khan will win now I'd say 70%

 

I had a look and compared last time vs this year

 

 

The highlights being how strongly labour or conservative they voted in 2021. Inner vs Outer London is tricky to tell as some places are both inner and outer (Camden & Barnet for instance or Enfield & Haringey for instance).

 

The 3 conservative voting areas have seen increased turnout, particularly Bexley & Bromley. Although most outer London areas have had decreased turnout, but less so than inner London.

 

There is a slight caveat in my data above though in that the 2021 data is rounded (so increases and decreases might be off by between 0.1-0.4, but it should still given a general idea). I just couldn't be bothered to go through all 14 files and do the math for them.

 

I'm thinking he'll win by a smaller margin, but who knows.

 

I'm quite interested to see what the London Assembly will look like as if Susan does end up winnning, the conservatives will likely lose a number of seats, with Labour, Greens & Lib Dems likely gaining seats between them (+ Reform will likely end up with 1 too).

 

It's possible that there may be a 2/3rd majority between Labour, Greens & Lib Dems (Need 17/25 seats for that, currently Labour has 11, Greens 3 & Lib Dems 2 for 16 total) so they could majorly frustrate Susan's plans/budgets etc.

Jamie Driscoll did lose in the end and by a significant margin too. London Mayoral loads of rumours going around that Hall has upset Khan. At first I thought it was some Trumpian cast aspersion on the votes nonsense by the right wing but even Khan's team is saying it's going to be closed. Think it's a bit much waiting till Saturday to count the vote, that allows these rumours to take part - FWIW I think Khan has won comfortably but being cautious/downplaying expectations. Definitely would be a tale of Inner vs Outer London too.

 

Don’t know much about London but you’d think the progressive vote would win easily but this is the city that voted for Johnson so who knows, must be a lot of middle class suburbs there now!

 

Sad Jamie Driscoll lost, I really thought he would upset the odds!

To be fair, although I and many others in London saw through Johnson's narcissism from the get go- he was heavily promoted by an adoring press as an ultra liberal, pro EU, lively character representing the good times - it was during the golden Olympic 2012 period in London, which was an age away. He then took a sharp turn fash and Brexity when he spotted an opening to become PM.

 

Hall from the get go has been portrayed as a gaffe prone, hard right divisive character without a clue how to run a bath let alone a global city. Plus she's heavily Brexity in a very pro Remain city. Yes, the suburbs will be slightly more in favour of her but there will be lots there who are voting against her too as it's a very cosmopolitan area.

 

Khan is suffering from the general anti Starmer feeling in London, plus a lot of mendacious attacks purely because he's a Muslim but I do know lots of people who are disliking the current Labour leader and voting for him as Mayor (and Green etc other votes). Plus the polls would have to be wrong on an unprecedented level - they varied from 10 point lead to 22 point lead.

 

One thing I would say is that I didn't get a single leaflet or see a single placard/flyer anywhere- I live in Waltham Forest which is as Labour as they come but the Mayoral election is a pure popularity contest covering whole of London not voted on by winning the most areas. It would be so so easy to forget it was on. So if anything it could have been due to shit campaigning if he only scrapes through

And overall think it was a great night for Starmer - he won lots of unglamourous areas in the North and Midlands that would make all the difference in the General Election Places like Nuneaton, Hartlepool, Burnley (ie the Red Wall(. Yes people go 'Oh Greens are beating Labour in Bristol and Norwich" but there are so few parliamentary seats affected so although it may make a few headlines and be of interest to younger voters, it's not significant. There could be more of a problem with certain inner cities with large Muslim population due to the stance on Palestine but maybe Starmer will work on that issue.

 

God it sounds like I'm a fan - I'm not but so so so want the Tories out.

The national poll developed by various broadcaster following the legs face it confusing local elections in terms of the stats you are left to analyse show Labour on 35% a 10 point leads over the tories!

Maybe it's because I live in one of the more blue boroughs in London (Bexley and Bromley), but the anti-Khan movement feels very strong here, I think the polls are underestimating just how unpopular ULEZ is with outer London. I did end up voting tactically for Khan just to prevent it. It would be bizarre and not fitting with the narrative losing such a strong Labour area, but I'm nervous about tomorrow, it's giving me 2016 vibes :x

You can get 50/1 on Hall, I'd say it looks fairly likely Khan wins London. Probably shows the Gaza stance is hurting Labour, but you can flip that round and say if they adopted a different stance it might hurt votes too. Something for the strategists to ponder, but can't see a change unless America makes one. Probably fine in the local elections to take a slightly rogue stance, but the votes will count in the general election. Overall though, think Labour HQ will be very happy with how things have gone.

@1786718721945256347

First region declaring for London Mayor- Greenwich and Lewisham show a swing of 5% TOWARDS Labour

 

The outer parts will have to do a lot of heavy lifting to stand a chance to pollute us all on the cheap!