So much for not backing down, Tariffs now paused for 90 days on most countries at just 10%, except China where they're now 125%.

And ofc. the markets and stocks are soaring again after this announcement, I have suspected that this is all for his own gain and market manipulation cos it's not like him and his billionaire mates will ever feel the pinch of a recession and this backs it up.

21 minutes ago, Chez Wombat said:

So much for not backing down, Tariffs now paused for 90 days on most countries at just 10%, except China where they're now 125%.

And ofc. the markets and stocks are soaring again after this announcement, I have suspected that this is all for his own gain and market manipulation cos it's not like him and his billionaire mates will ever feel the pinch of a recession and this backs it up.

Which begs the question, which country is going to bring all their manufacturing back to the US when the rules change every week never mind every month. Not happening.

Who knows what's going on. This will get spun all ways, my view is they did not have a clue and ultimately blinked first.

How is anyone supposed to run a business which relies on trade with the USA supposed to operate with this chaos? The same applies to US companies trading with any other country. This sort of volatility makes it impossible to plan even days ahead.

I wouldn’t say backing down he did the same before with Canada & Mexico then brought them back and made them bigger. It’s all a rollercoaster where ultimately you’re only safe and secure with your company in the US. You have to remember it’s not a throwaway thing he is genuinely a narcissist it’s a genuine personality disorder he needs attention and to feel centre of it at all times so there will be contradictory moves but he’s been touting tariffs for 40 years so they will be a constant throughout his presidency and one I hope the UK adopts!

I think @Liam S you don't get the way capitalism works. It’s capitalism that’s the problem not China. The US did exactly the same to Britain 100 years ago.

Glad to see that like clockwork the tariffs-go-tariffs-pause pendulum has resumed. Good news in that it's not quite economic meltdown, but this really betrays his lack of a backbone. The humongous tariffs between US/China that effectively mean a cessation of trade between the world's two largest economies won't last either, he's trying to isolate China and grab a clear win out of this embarrassment (almost definitely someone in his administration did not calculate tariffs correctly on that original board and they have been figuring out a way to climb down from that insanity), but because so many materials are made in China it's going to legitimately financially destroy lots of businesses, big and small, in America very fast (and so no, you won't be secure with your company in the US), so likely there'll be a push to resolve that soon.

On 08/04/2025 at 18:31, Iz 🌟 said:

Anyway with stocks rebounding, this may go out of date in the next 48 hours but my instinct is that negotiations are reached with some countries, and the stock market climbs back to something a bit steadier, though still notably lower than the highs the Biden administration went out with.

Then is where American consumers really start to feel the pinch, as higher prices set in that they can't ignore. From there, who knows.

Feel like we are going to be doing this for the next 90 days, the status quo but with prices noticeably higher because Trump has managed to sneak a 10% tax on everything coming from abroad. Which will eventually be felt by American consumers. It's not a reset of the status quo, just more neoliberal bullshit with extra taxes (and not spent on anything good likely).

Just looks like industrialised insider trading.

Very uncharitable takes. On a like for like comparison the US is attracting companies, millionaires, billionaires. They have 25% tariffs on various things like steel still in place. They’re taking on China. They’re making efforts to fix a broken system. If you look at the UK what are they doing? Losing thousands of millionaires, losing companies, steel about to go out of business, terrified of China. You saw the stock market is so overrated. You can always make back losses and these days in record time. Prices will probably be lower due to the oil price than higher due to tariffs too. One thing Trump did which is interesting to witness was get all these political people in Canada and UK to become ultra nationalists. I saw the Lib Dems on buy British campaigns. Just shows you how feeble these people are, if they believe in that then why weren’t they doing that before?

Tariffs are the greatest tool in a powerful countries disposal and anyone who says listen to the markets knows nothing. Farage embarrassed himself trying to defend British steel but at the same time had an ideological stance against tariffs. Peston was aghast at his confusion. It won’t be long before the UK is the 20th+ economy in the world with a tiny army and people will ask why are this small Island supposedly powerful again? But it’ll be fine if the FTSE is up 0.3% apparently. Crazy way to think

I point you back to Iz's diagram, flip flopping between art of the deal and, this will make jobs.

The only reason Trump os trying Trump Tariffs, which never work btw, is because he started shouting sbout using them as a way to generate taxation revenue without taxing Americans. Why did he say that? As a blase, "sure, why not?!" responde to egregiously stupid snd dumb Joe Rogan on his 2 hour snoozeathon podcast.

21 minutes ago, Liam S said:

Very uncharitable takes. On a like for like comparison the US is attracting companies, millionaires, billionaires. They have 25% tariffs on various things like steel still in place. They’re taking on China. They’re making efforts to fix a broken system. If you look at the UK what are they doing? Losing thousands of millionaires, losing companies, steel about to go out of business, terrified of China. You saw the stock market is so overrated. You can always make back losses and these days in record time. Prices will probably be lower due to the oil price than higher due to tariffs too. One thing Trump did which is interesting to witness was get all these political people in Canada and UK to become ultra nationalists. I saw the Lib Dems on buy British campaigns. Just shows you how feeble these people are, if they believe in that then why weren’t they doing that before?

Tariffs are the greatest tool in a powerful countries disposal and anyone who says listen to the markets knows nothing. Farage embarrassed himself trying to defend British steel but at the same time had an ideological stance against tariffs. Peston was aghast at his confusion. It won’t be long before the UK is the 20th+ economy in the world with a tiny army and people will ask why are this small Island supposedly powerful again? But it’ll be fine if the FTSE is up 0.3% apparently. Crazy way to think

Btexshit is what hastened the UK's decline, as we told you many times. The UK is a small island and unable to challenge China or the US. The Lib Dems are opportunistic neoliberals. I have no time for them. Terrible party.

23 minutes ago, Liam S said:

Very uncharitable takes. On a like for like comparison the US is attracting companies, millionaires, billionaires. They have 25% tariffs on various things like steel still in place. They’re taking on China. They’re making efforts to fix a broken system. If you look at the UK what are they doing? Losing thousands of millionaires, losing companies, steel about to go out of business, terrified of China. You saw the stock market is so overrated. You can always make back losses and these days in record time. Prices will probably be lower due to the oil price than higher due to tariffs too. One thing Trump did which is interesting to witness was get all these political people in Canada and UK to become ultra nationalists. I saw the Lib Dems on buy British campaigns. Just shows you how feeble these people are, if they believe in that then why weren’t they doing that before?

Tariffs are the greatest tool in a powerful countries disposal and anyone who says listen to the markets knows nothing. Farage embarrassed himself trying to defend British steel but at the same time had an ideological stance against tariffs. Peston was aghast at his confusion. It won’t be long before the UK is the 20th+ economy in the world with a tiny army and people will ask why are this small Island supposedly powerful again? But it’ll be fine if the FTSE is up 0.3% apparently. Crazy way to think

Liam, I understand the points you're trying to make but you're wholly inconsistent. For example you early suggested a few pages ago that we're losing companies and not taxing them enough, as well as losing millionaires, but you advocate for people having higher wages and companies paying higher tariffs. There is just an understanding of how free markets and capitalism works. Yes, it is not perfect, but ripping out the entire system over a short period of time means everyone loses out. People have always been nationalist, not sure why you think this a new thing. If you walk round a supermarket why do you think own label produce states 'made in Britain' or certain brands play local heritage & culture.

As a country, we made ourselves economically smaller by leaving the EU, cos who wants free access to a customer base of 500m people? Brexit severely hampered our ability to trade and meant other countries within the EU have greater scope for manufacturing without needless bureaucracy that Brexit has created. I guess you've not not noticed the US bond market or that they're odds in favour of a recession though.

I appreciate this appears condescending, but amongst this thread there are many people who I can disagree with politically. We all may have different views, but there's a wide range of people who work in industries (myself included) and every single economist who agree that wide spread tariffs are not good for growth. There is a very high risk of stagflation occurring for one.

39 minutes ago, Walford Whacker said:

I point you back to Iz's diagram, flip flopping between art of the deal and, this will make jobs.

The only reason Trump os trying Trump Tariffs, which never work btw, is because he started shouting sbout using them as a way to generate taxation revenue without taxing Americans. Why did he say that? As a blase, "sure, why not?!" responde to egregiously stupid snd dumb Joe Rogan on his 2 hour snoozeathon podcast.

If you own a company and 80% of your consumers are American and you’re basing it in China because the labor is cheaper then someone says 25% tariff now it’s cheaper to base it in the US and avoid the tariff right? How could that not work? You either get the extra revenue or you get the extra jobs. Retaliatory tariffs mean little since China buys 1/5th in the opposite direction. It’s only logical it would work. It’s a win/win scenario and people are opposed to it on ideological grounds because you can’t argue against the logic.

The people who point to price rises are just misguided, too much competition around. The point is those with the wealth want the system to continue as it is as their wealth keeps rising on the backs of cheap labor and they spend millions paying these talking heads to drum these talking points into people. I think countries should run as follows.

People want something

Someone runs on that

That person wins

They carry out what the people voted for

It seems other people think shadowy figures should control policy and banks and investors in bonds. This is basically making elections and democracy a worthless exercise.

39 minutes ago, Rooney said:

Liam, I understand the points you're trying to make but you're wholly inconsistent. For example you early suggested a few pages ago that we're losing companies and not taxing them enough, as well as losing millionaires, but you advocate for people having higher wages and companies paying higher tariffs. There is just an understanding of how free markets and capitalism works. Yes, it is not perfect, but ripping out the entire system over a short period of time means everyone loses out. People have always been nationalist, not sure why you think this a new thing. If you walk round a supermarket why do you think own label produce states 'made in Britain' or certain brands play local heritage & culture.

As a country, we made ourselves economically smaller by leaving the EU, cos who wants free access to a customer base of 500m people? Brexit severely hampered our ability to trade and meant other countries within the EU have greater scope for manufacturing without needless bureaucracy that Brexit has created. I guess you've not not noticed the US bond market or that they're odds in favour of a recession though.

I appreciate this appears condescending, but amongst this thread there are many people who I can disagree with politically. We all may have different views, but there's a wide range of people who work in industries (myself included) and every single economist who agree that wide spread tariffs are not good for growth. There is a very high risk of stagflation occurring for one.

We have 30 years of evidence that a lack of tariffs were bad for the country. For manufacturing. The growth was basically non existent. There has been austerity for nearly 20 years.

People voted to leave the EU for a reason it wasn’t working for people. It’s now become this red herring where people think being in the EU is some magical solution. It’d make very little difference either way. If the EU was purely a trading bloc I’m sure Britain would still be apart of it not that I think it’d make much difference.

A customer base for what? The UK barely has anything to sell at this point. All the EU did was lead to lower wages and undercutting. Like I said before I knew many people in various industries who made 3-5k a week and they began to have to work for £500-1k a week or they wouldn’t get work because you had millions of people from Albania or Poland willing to work for as lot less. People just don’t grasp certain industries because they work in different sectors. For the majority of people the EU was a net negative that’s why people voted to leave.

I don’t think high tax is good but on some companies it’s necessary. If Amazon bases itself in Ireland to avoid tax in the UK you have to target the company in some way. If a company makes outrageous profits the tax has to be much higher. Energy companies, Apple, Amazon. Not in general.

1 minute ago, Liam S said:

We have 30 years of evidence that a lack of tariffs were bad for the country. For manufacturing. The growth was basically non existent. There has been austerity for nearly 20 years.

People voted to leave the EU for a reason it wasn’t working for people. It’s now become this red herring where people think being in the EU is some magical solution. It’d make very little difference either way. If the EU was purely a trading bloc I’m sure Britain would still be apart of it not that I think it’d make much difference.

A customer base for what? The UK barely has anything to sell at this point. All the EU did was lead to lower wages and undercutting. Like I said before I knew many people in various industries who made 3-5k a week and they began to have to work for £500-1k a week or they wouldn’t get work because you had millions of people from Albania or Poland willing to work for as lot less. People just don’t grasp certain industries because they work in different sectors. For the majority of people the EU was a net negative that’s why people voted to leave.

I don’t think high tax is good but on some companies it’s necessary. If Amazon bases itself in Ireland to avoid tax in the UK you have to target the company in some way. If a company makes outrageous profits the tax has to be much higher. Energy companies, Apple, Amazon. Not in general.

People voted to leave the EU because they had no idea what they were voting for. Yes it cost money to buy in to, but it was mutually beneficial as that's how trade works. The EU was absolutely terrible for business, again, I know this as I work for a business! All it did is increase raw materials cost and decrease efficiency along with meaning we are not a good country to invest in as there was so much turmoil & uncertainty going on.

I can't speak for the industries you speak of, but they sound like casual work/zero contracts. There are some unethical practices there, but yeah that's capitalism for you. Certainly in most companies there are pay structures or flat pay rates which prevent an influx of cheap labour. Same principle applies when you're shopping though.. if you can buy the same product in Aldi for £10 vs £25 in Sainsburys what are you going to do? There are still a lot of manufacturing companies in the UK, but like the US, we took to invest in Services as an economy. Now we have certainly gone too far as a country and become London centric as that certainly heavily impacts everywhere outside of the South East. But our Services economy was huge until Brexit of course, as like you say if you are a company and wanting to invest, why would you choose the UK over Ireland when you can access 500m people for the same cost vs 65m.

So one of your proposed solutions is to create a complex tax scheme, which will cost millions to set up. That's not going to work. I am not a tax expert, but you've got tons of companies who base themselves in Ireland , Gibraltar, Cayman Islands, Monaco etc. to get around tax. The solution is to close the loopholes.

On 07/04/2025 at 23:54, Silas said:

Amazon doesn’t pay a fair rate of corporation tax for a number of reasons (a misconception is that Amazon pay no tax, they pay billions in wage taxes and consumption taxes like VAT) chief among which is because they can afford to pay people to find the loopholes in tax law, so you wanna tax Amazon, start closing the long standing loopholes.

You fix corporate tax evasion by two primary routes. Legislation and cooperation. Legislation to close loopholes and tighten up accounting regulations and what you can legally deduct from your income by way of tax relief and incentives. Personally as a chartered accountant I would be inclined to calculate a lower rate of corporation tax but from higher up the P&L so there’s less chance for accountants to f*** with it. Cooperation is done through things like the OECD to set global minimum tax rates and enforce requirements such as CBCR and work together to stop corporations offshoring revenue in low tax jurisdictions

Tariffs ain’t got jack shit with corporate tax avoidance and certainly won’t stop it

I’ll just repost this as I see we seem to have circled back to the exact same topic

3 hours ago, Liam S said:

If you own a company and 80% of your consumers are American and you’re basing it in China because the labor is cheaper then someone says 25% tariff now it’s cheaper to base it in the US and avoid the tariff right? How could that not work? You either get the extra revenue or you get the extra jobs. Retaliatory tariffs mean little since China buys 1/5th in the opposite direction. It’s only logical it would work. It’s a win/win scenario and people are opposed to it on ideological grounds because you can’t argue against the logic.

The people who point to price rises are just misguided, too much competition around. The point is those with the wealth want the system to continue as it is as their wealth keeps rising on the backs of cheap labor and they spend millions paying these talking heads to drum these talking points into people. I think countries should run as follows.

People want something

Someone runs on that

That person wins

They carry out what the people voted for

It seems other people think shadowy figures should control policy and banks and investors in bonds. This is basically making elections and democracy a worthless exercise.

I can argue against the logic. Try this.

No, or very few, companies like the one you describe in your first paragraph exist. They will be dwarfed by the amount of China-based businesses selling a basic commodity or material to the whole world, who will not care for losing some American customers, certainly not enough to relocate a factory over and pay American workers high salaries in exchange for a limited extra customer base. The goods they are selling to the US will just go up in price for American consumers, and if they are left with a surplus, more for the rest of the world.

Meanwhile, some of those consumers are not members of the public, but actual American businesses who are making complex products at tight margins. They will be importing lots of these basic materials from China, plastics, batteries, textiles, packaging, whatever it is, to make their product, because that's how it goes in an era of mass production where common stuff that everyone needs is manufactured in China, even if they try to source some materials from America, almost certainly something they need will only reasonably be made in China. The tariffs will hit them hard, possibly putting them out of business. Trump therefore destroys or severely disrupts the business chain of innovative companies in his country while barely affecting the profit margins of Chinese businesses.

(below is an example of a small business owner vaguely connected to my social media circles who has been experiencing the exact scenario in the above paragraph, just so you have a real example of the above)

It's not really got any cheaper for base good American manufacturers that there are either. They may not even be able to undercut Chinese companies even with stupidly high tariffs. I've said a LOT in previous posts about how it's no good for the American end consumer, but tariffs aren't good for American businesses either, except in the rare scenario that EVERYTHING they need to run their business can be produced in America, they are already competing with imported goods, and their industry allows them to produce at scale while paying American workers decent salaries.

3 hours ago, Liam S said:

I think countries should run as follows.

People want something

Someone runs on that

That person wins

They carry out what the people voted for

It seems other people think shadowy figures should control policy and banks and investors in bonds. This is basically making elections and democracy a worthless exercise.

Also, lol no. Reject simplistic politics like this, always. While we often use the popularity of policies to argue for their worth, that does not mean that vox populi is always vox dei. The people can be wrong.

Generally politicians do try to implement manifestos, of course, but you should not trust any politician that tries to push through an unworkable and harmful policy just because it was part of their winning platform. In the case of tariffs, it was almost certainly not a winning reason for Trump and it is his fervent ideological belief, not that of his voters, that is driving this.

To an extent in our current system, elections and democracy do indeed operate within a reasonable framework and it is hard to break out of it (doesn't mean that that's a good thing). Of course it matters how you break such a system, and in my view, it's good to make the system as good as it possibly can be before breaking it.

Just as something of a sidenote, an open question for the room, do you come on a thread like this to discuss things in order to aim towards consensus, or just in order to complain about something or rant?

Because if you're entrenched in your position from the get go then where can any conversation reasonably go?

7 minutes ago, J00prstar said:

Just as something of a sidenote, an open question for the room, do you come on a thread like this to discuss things in order to aim towards consensus, or just in order to complain about something or rant?

Because if you're entrenched in your position from the get go then where can any conversation reasonably go?

An unfortunate side-effect of, well, the Trump era (or to give it a more explanatory name, the internet bubble era), is that people search narratives out that reinforces what they already believe, and then argue for it in discussions like this, should they ever encounter anyone who thinks differently, without considering that their mind can be changed. People do it all over the spectrum, though it is more prevalent on the extremes and certainly so on the populist right, who become loyal to a figure like Trump.

I (and I hope other regular contributors) would like this to be a place where discussion takes place around somewhat verifiable facts, such that we state our analysis and consider others - as though this were a debate club (though jokes and memes about the state of politics are always very welcome too, don't misunderstand me). I created the new pinned thread recently to help with that if people wanted to look for good places to start their research.

Eventually if certain posters continue showing their lack of understanding of most things, then one would hope that people reading would not side with them. I'm not trying to convince Liam S, personally, because over the last 8 months or so he's shown he's a credulous cheerleader for the methods of anti-establishment cult of personality politicians (though often being careful to avoid outright siding with them) and has shown no sign of ever caring about the harms they cause or threaten to cause in favour of his own moral crusades, but challenging his arguments so that they do not go unchallenged is quite enjoyable (up to a point) and I hope reinforces my points to anyone reading. It's not like he's NEVER made a point I agree with either.

(also I am starting to realise I have a bad habit of paragraphing up threads in here beyond what is normally acceptable so tl;dr, I would like more debates and discussions with people who are willing to consider their mind can change too!)

For what it's worth, I don't agree with you guys on everything either, just in case anyone perceives it as a free for all BuzzJack vs them