Get in your political predictions for the upcoming year!

 

Likely to be a far quieter year than 2024 on the political front, at least electorally, not least because so many countries had their elections last year that there are relatively few having them this year - a quick glance at the electoral calendar has Canada, Australia and Germany as perhaps the most notable elections and those will be months apart and only likely to tangentially affect most of our memberbase.

 

Of course that doesn't mean politics stops, as conflicts continue across the globe, the potential for peace talks or other goings on in Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East continues, while at (the British) home front, the Starmer ministry will have to focus on rebuilding British society while fending off attacks from rabid newspapers and fascist billionaires, and over in America, the incoming 2nd Trump administration prepares to take on what can politely be called a divided country.

 

Dump your predictions for political goings-on both home and abroad here.

The alt-right + far-right lose ground (probably already hinted at the division in opinions for the skilled worker visa), and the left starts to rebuild their supporters' base, paving way for a landslide victory for the Dems in 2026 :thinking:

 

Tories go down to less than 10% in support and their actions get mocked by the Internet from both sides of the spectrum. Labour will recover in support.

 

hopium i know x

^Yeah because of Reform UK splitting the right wing vote.

 

I am sure Trump will lose some popularity in opinion polls this year after enacting some unpopular policies, just like Starmer has at the start. Starmer might recover a bit in the polls.

Edited January 3Jan 3 by TheSnake

Starmer will be the most unpopular leader possible and Labour will throw him under the bus once a lot of the unpopular decisions have been made.

 

Russia & Ukraine will be over by May the latest with Ukraine agreeing not to join NATO in exchange for most of their land back

 

Reform will overtake the Tories and Kemi will be forced out

 

Trump will be relatively popular with the general population in comparison to his 1st term

 

Can’t really think of much else, have to see what comes up

Starmer will be the most unpopular leader possible and Labour will throw him under the bus once a lot of the unpopular decisions have been made.

 

Agreed, can't see either Starmer or Badenoch leading at the next election. Rachel Reeves will be PM by 2028 but no idea for the Tories.

 

 

There's no reason for Starmer to go, and he won't. His lack of popularity is too easily attributable to 'hard decisions', Labour aren't like the Conservatives and it is much more difficult for their leaders to be couped in the same way Johnson and Truss were and the backbenchers were threatening to do to Sunak. In fact it would be incredibly worrying for Labour if Starmer was ousted in some manner in the next 12 months as that means that either the media or the international cabal of fascist billionaires Musk et al have more say on who governs the country than the people of Britain. Unless it's for a reason such as personal retirement, I actually fully expect Starmer to be leading at the next election.

 

But for 2025 specifically:

 

Basically Starmer's popularity has been whittled down to the centrist Labour base and therefore the longer he holds in office the more statesman-like people will view him as - essentially there's nowhere for it to go but slowly up, particularly as experience has told us he's a competent operator in a way that Sunak and certainly Truss never were. Despite unrelenting media antagonism, the economy will show small signs of improving by the end of 2025 and Labour will claim credit for that. Meanwhile Tories and Reform will continue fighting like cats in a sack over the small minority of voters the right-wing press tells them are worth pursuing, the nearly retired and recently retired with latent white supremacy, and despite having 20 times the MPs of Reform, the Lib Dems will continue to receive 1/20th of the media coverage. Corbyn and the Gaza Independents attempt to form a small left-wing party but because they're left-wing it stands about a fiftieth of the chance that any of Farage's numerous shitebag attempts of gaining media traction. Polls will close out the year with Labour roughly at 32%, Tories 23%, Reform 17%, Lib Dem 13%.

 

Internationally, the AfD fail to make too much headway in Germany thanks to the CDU providing a rare anti-fascist bulwark from the centre-right, and a Black-Red coalition is formed. Conservative majority in Canada however, and the (right-wing) Liberals regain governance from the left in Australia, but only a minority government rather than the majority they were expecting.

 

The Ukraine war is brought to a close with Ukraine formally ceding Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, having being forced to under pressure from Trump - Ukraine fasttracks its membership to NATO and peace is returned, albeit uneasy, as Georgia becomes an autocracy in debt to Putin much like Belarus. Middle East-wise, Israel slowly brings itself towards peace from a position of strength, Syria's new governance show more and more Islamist traits and shifts towards something similar to the position Egypt is currently in.

 

Trump's governance is relatively uneventful throughout 2025 at least in mainstream offline politics, but he has at least one age-related gaffe that sends his approval down towards the bottom. At least one of the Trump tariffs is implemented disastrously and the media start calling it a Trump tax or something similar that enters common parlance. Vance starts to get cold feet on Musk and challenges him to single combat. Or something. Essentially some sort of fallout in the fragile coalition those lunatics have assembled. We already had the bones of one the other day with Musk and Ramaswamy antagonising the MAGA base on the H1B visa issue, it's not a hard prediction to make.

We are forgetring the far right prwssure Trump and President Elon will be putring on thr UK. They are, Elon, threatening economic snd diplomaric punishment unless the UK releases Waxy Lemon.

January

 

The Daily Mail will reveal that Keir Starmer once left some bread under the grill for too long under the headline “Starmer is Toast”.

 

 

March

 

In the lead up to the local elections, Lib Dem leader Ed Davey visits the International Space Station. He announces that “Major Tim” Farron will be in charge of the local election campaign while he tries to get back to Earth.

 

 

April

 

Boris Johnson announces that he will be divorcing his latest wife. Laura Kuenssberg denies playing any part in this.

 

 

May

 

Farage’s fascists make substantial gains from the Tories in the local elections. Labour suffer modest losses to the Tories and Lib Dems. The Lib Dems win seats from the Tories. This is reported as a triumph for Farage and a disaster for Labour. The Lib Dems are not mentioned at all.

 

 

June

 

The first parliamentary byelection in a seat won by the Tories in July 2024. Boris Johnson is selected as the Tory candidate. He finishes seventh, behind a man dressed as a goldfish, a woman dressed as a cake and Jenniffer Arcuri.

 

 

July

 

The economy finally shows signs of significant growth. The Daily Mail reports that this is a triumph for the Tories’ handling of the economy.

 

Some ministers attend an Oasis gig. Others don’t. The Daily Mail devotes several front pages to stories about how this reveals a major Labour split. The Daily Express claims that this is the first time any minister has attended any gig, ever. The BBC reports both these stories as news.

 

 

August

 

Liz Truss publishes her new book, How To Be Prime Minister, a rebuke to historian Anthony Seldon’s How Not To Be PM. After a book-signing tour, signed copies of the book sell for as much as 20p. Rare unsigned copies sell for £3. The publisher goes bankrupt, blaming Rachel Reeves.

 

 

October

 

In her first (and, possibly, last) leader’s speech to the Tory autumn conference Kemi Badenoch launches a blistering attack on snacks at lunchtime. The Daily Star reports the speech under the headline One Sandwich Short Of A Picnic.

 

 

November

 

Reform UK MP Lee Anderson decides that it is about time he changed parties again. After failing to find a party that will accept him, he forms one of his own with a membership fee of 30p. For another 30p, members will be able to attend the annual dinner, cooked by Anderson himself.

 

 

December

 

After a group of Labour and Tory MPs join the Lib Dems, Ed Davey becomes the Leader of the Opposition. He celebrates by abseiling from the top of the Palace of Westminster to Waterloo station. Broadcasters and the press continue to devote more time and spaces on reporting the antics of Farage and his parliamentary party, now reduced to three after Richard Tice follows Lee Anderson in launching his own party.

 

My pessimistic prediction is that the far right (the extreme kind) becomes more powerful across the world, thanks to Trump.

My optimistic predictions for 2025:

 

 

By the end of 2025, Starmer has recovered a healthy polling lead over his closest competition, the Tories. Reform begin to lose support due to inner conflict and some major controversy I suppose...

 

In Canada, the Conservatives win the election with a large majority of +60 seats. Additionally, the Liberals are humiliated to a greater extent as the New Democratic party secure a higher percentage of the popular vote than the Liberal Party (although the latter party still wins more seats overall).

 

In Germany, the CDU come out as victors in the February election, winning about 240 seats. The SPD also over-perform their polling figures, exceeding expectations to hold a significantly higher proportion of seats in comparison to AFD. As expected, a coalition is formed between CDU and SFD to control a majority in German government.

 

In Australia, Labor exceed the polls and only stray a few seats behind the Liberal/National Coalition who are just short of a majority. The Green Party may have a key part to play in forming a majority for either government.

 

In the USA, Trump's support begins to expire almost instantly due to unpopular decisions, controversy, his usual breaches of Democracy etc. Trump's application of MAGAnomics also sends inflation on the rise once again due to high tariffs on foreign goods. The razor thin majority in the HOR makes it hard for Trump to pass his agenda and hence makes him look incredibly weak. By June, Mike Johnson has been ousted as speaker of the HOR.

 

This begins to set the stage nicely for 2026 where (yes, I'm optimistically calling it now) the Dems will win back a majority of over 230 seats in the HOR, make a senate gain of two seats (Maine and North Carolina, additionally Ohio, Iowa and Florida could be in play but its quite unlikely that they would shift left considering that those states haven't elected a Democrat senator since the Obama era, excluding Sherrod Brown in 2018) and a gubernatorial gain of Nevada and Georgia.

 

After some speculation, Kamala Harris does not decide to run for governor of California and instead prepares to launch a 2028 presidential bid in 2026. Throughout 2026, Harris becomes the clear frontrunner for the Democratic nomination in 2028 with Pete Buttigieg acting as her closest competition in the polls. Vance also leads the polls for the Republican nomination.

 

Lastly, the two 2025 gubernatorial elections (New Jersey and Virginia) are dare I say, landslides for Democracts?

 

 

 

+ a former UK Prime Minister dies :o