Will Nigel Farage be PM in 2029? After a recent poll put them level with Labour the popular press and some electoral experts seem to think he can do it and win around 400 seats. Interesting Ch4. programme last night.

I can't see it myself and think the bubble will burst before then. Labour support will rise again and they'll be re-elected but with a much reduced majority.

Edited June 27Jun 27 by CRAZY CHRIS

It all depends on the economy imo!

It’s a long time. Anything can happen between then. If there was genuinely an election right now I think it’d end up pretty close

It depends on the economy as Steve says - I think a lot depends on how much scrutiny Reform get put under. Right now they basically spout off whatever drivel they want.

Easy for people to vote for them when they're promising the world to everyone. I would say, if they did get in to power, there is no way they'd last the full term.

They are going to struggle with not being an institution, now they've developed themselves among the politically aware they can win council by-elections, next step is to get people who'll vote in the general but not pay attention elsewise to back Farage and cohort. However if they can convince the standard Conservative voting areas that they are now the correct right-wing choice, they'll get seats there, they're certainly getting seats in the East Coast and former industrial North as well as a bunch of other 'left-behind' areas across the country, plus the complete lack of positive feeling around the Labour government will not help them defend many of their narrowly won seats, though if the electorate in that seat is not convinced by roaring right-wingers then there's likely not much else to vote for.

Honestly depends whether they hold to their philosophy, in which case they may get the Corbyn treatment but from the right as institutional powers start to see them taking power as a real possibility, or whether they adopt more Tory-like structures in which case they'll probably continue to be welcomed by business/media but risk losing the disaffected voters to whatever else is next.

If the political picture holds as it is (it won't, because there's likely almost 4 years before a general), then my long-term predictive skills sees a few likely options for the make up of the parliament after the next election:

a) Small Labour majority, Labour continues as before but with much less wiggle room and likely even less inspiring philosophies, they get badly beaten in 2034, probably by a much stronger Reform, though potentially at this point without Farage? Not sure how Reform lives life beyond him yet.

b) Small Reform majority. Reform tear everything up a la Trump with their """stonking mandate""", businesses lose confidence in the UK, the inexperience and extremism of their parliamentary candidates causes their majority to shrink, but they limp onto the end of the term with the UK much worse off economically and a completely changed political picture, and then the election is won in 2034 by whichever left forces can use the opportunity to present a narrative (the Labour centre would completely lack credibility in this timeline but they've effectively split the left so much I'm not sure how we go about bringing that together).

b) ii) Reform are actually somewhat successful in short-term (long-term they are almost guaranteed to be a complete disaster) making their voting base feel better off and Farage manages to keep the party under control enough that he can start really putting the boot in to any opposition (what Trump wants to do, what Fidesz has done in Hungary) and they become the only viable political force in the country for the future (bad timeline)

c) Reform minority. Likely have to work with the Tories in a confidence-and-supply arrangement, eventually this is likely broken, they lose control and there are fresh elections. Think the very first and second Labour governments in 1923/1929, quickly removed by more traditional parties who decide that everyone has had enough of that nonsense thank you very much, and so potentially our first Grand Coalition post-war.

d) Lab + Lib coalition + whoever else is needed to form a workable government. Potentially good, as it will likely lead to some voting system reform, but likely to face huge media and right-wing voter opposition as it's likely in this scenario Reform were the biggest party (and therefore the 'rightful winner') but because they're so toxic or they destroyed the Tories so completely, they don't have a working majority so couldn't form a government, expect the coalition detractors to choose to ignore this.

So answer to the question... who knows. It's possible. But if they were any party I would not be saying they have an easy ride, so I will also say here they will not have an easy ride. unless the media gives them one.

Farage favourite to be next PM either with Reform or as Tory leader.

Farage will never be Tory leader lol

Yes we can only hope, I feel like past month there has been a wake up call in a lot of the demographic. A lot of anger and frustration with the hotels, benefits migrants and culture. We need a change, a big one.

23 minutes ago, Rough_edges said:

Yes we can only hope, I feel like past month there has been a wake up call in a lot of the demographic. A lot of anger and frustration with the hotels, benefits migrants and culture. We need a change, a big one.

No, you are being fed such hate and fear from your media diet. Ask yourself why the people you get your media from are making you focus on the plight of people who are different from you, rather than water company mismanagement, rising prices and low median wages (among others), and would like you to consider a group of snake oil salesmen whose management style is outwardly horrendous, divisive and controlling.

Change can most certainly be bad and what is on offer from Reform looks fucking abysmal.

3 minutes ago, Iz 🌟 said:

No, you are being fed such hate and fear from your media diet. Ask yourself why the people you get your media from are making you focus on the plight of people who are different from you, rather than water company mismanagement, rising prices and low median wages (among others), and would like you to consider a group of snake oil salesmen whose management style is outwardly horrendous, divisive and controlling.

Change can most certainly be bad and what is on offer from Reform looks f***ing abysmal.

No thank you its from experience first hand, non English speaking in caring roles. Loss of culture in work places, unsafe migrants in small villages. Need a safer community protected and cultured. Those who arent in agreement and the issue, I understand a lot of it is scaremongering but I do not eant to grow old in a country where the people looking after me dont speak English. I dont eant to go into a shop and have no communication. Its protecting our values our country. It is scary where we are heading (most likely civil unrest) but the government need to act up before these minorities are in danger

In my one work place they have sponsored 5 overseas workers which in turn have bought there families of 6 over here, contributing nothing but taking jp housing do the maths

Edited yesterday at 06:411 day by Rough_edges

Like I said, low wage pay (to the point that many Brits do not wish to do that work) and the sacrifice of everything on the altar of capitalism is what leads you to that situation where people are being hired from abroad because they accept lower wages for harder, less fulfilling work.

You don't solve that with harsh rhetoric against immigrants, because it also involves burning everything else down, equal rights, cementing low wages for everyone, while you're at it. Besides, the changes that have been made by both the Sunak and Starmer administrations have been largely cutting down on visa-sponsoring and dependents where not necessary, there was a spike just after Covid where people who couldn't return before did, and they have cut down on people abusing masters degrees to get unrelated visas. Governments are doing things, but you don't want them to be doing the flashy stuff, as that is invariably needlessly cruel (recall Home Office vans from Theresa May's time as Home Sec).

Though the care industry specifically will need and will use immigrants for a long time to come, where English is not even a required skill, that is just how it is with our age pyramid.

8 hours ago, Rough_edges said:

No thank you its from experience first hand, non English speaking in caring roles. Loss of culture in work places, unsafe migrants in small villages. Need a safer community protected and cultured. Those who arent in agreement and the issue, I understand a lot of it is scaremongering but I do not eant to grow old in a country where the people looking after me dont speak English. I dont eant to go into a shop and have no communication. Its protecting our values our country. It is scary where we are heading (most likely civil unrest) but the government need to act up before these minorities are in danger

In my one work place they have sponsored 5 overseas workers which in turn have bought there families of 6 over here, contributing nothing but taking jp housing do the maths

I'm sorry but was a load of racist tripe! 🫠

Knowing this dumbf*** country, more than likely.

9 hours ago, Rough_edges said:

A lot of anger and frustration with the hotels, benefits migrants and culture.

I mean, a lot of those people seem to be angry about everything.

Even if they happened to be satisfied with all of that, they'll find something else.

On 23/08/2025 at 07:39, Rough_edges said:

No thank you its from experience first hand, non English speaking in caring roles. Loss of culture in work places, unsafe migrants in small villages. Need a safer community protected and cultured. Those who arent in agreement and the issue, I understand a lot of it is scaremongering but I do not eant to grow old in a country where the people looking after me dont speak English. I dont eant to go into a shop and have no communication. Its protecting our values our country. It is scary where we are heading (most likely civil unrest) but the government need to act up before these minorities are in danger

In my one work place they have sponsored 5 overseas workers which in turn have bought there families of 6 over here, contributing nothing but taking jp housing do the maths