The Blood Records edition of Play was originally a 10k run, but was reduced to 5k after it didn’t sell out, and it’s still not sold out (currently at 3600). Maybe ed sheeran fans don’t buy from blood records but I can’t see this reaching 100k

Here's how Ed's albums from the 2020s performed in the first week:

=

139,107 - Total

78,263 - CDs

25,286 - Streaming

19,294 - Downloads

11,644 - Vinyl

4,620 - Cassettes

-

76,263 - Total

41,122 - CDs

14,255 - Streaming

8,124 - Vinyl

7,792 - Downloads

4,970 - Cassettes

'Autumn Variations'

30,016 - Total

16,027 - CDs

6,121 - Vinyl

5,680 - Streaming

2,188 - Downloads

--

Format breakdown:

CDs:

78,263 (56.26%) =

41,122 (53.92%) -

16,027 (53.39%) Autumn Variations

Vinyl:

11,644 (8.37%) =

8,124 (10.65%) -

6,121 (20.39%) Autumn Variations

Streaming:

25,286 (18.18%) =

14,255 (18.69%) -

5,680 (18.92%) Autumn Variations

Downloads:

19,294 (13.87%) =

7,792 (10.22%) -

2,188 (7.29%) Autumn Variations

Cassettes:

4,620 (3.32%) =

4,970 (6.52%) -

--

Ed's been consistent with contribution from CDs, with over half of the first week sales coming from that format. Perhaps that will continue with Play? Streaming contribution has also remained remarkably consistent.

Vinyl has never been his strongest suit (although to be fair, all three of these albums reached #1 in the vinyl chart). Interestingly the percentage contribution from vinyl has increased with every release. Considering how his previous albums have performed on vinyl, it is surprising that his team/Blood Records anticipated that level of demand for a picture disc!

Personally I would be surprised if Ed can't at least match or slightly exceed '-', so I'm imagining 80,000 minimum. Now that I've said that with confidence, watch it come no where close

I have gone 80-100k. Given the pre-sale for the two UK December arena tour dates are provided to those who have pre-ordered the album (through Amazon), that will no doubt encourage more people to buy a copy.

I dont know whether I've under estimated but I went 60k-80k, thinking the top end (76k ish)

I voted 80k-100k.

I'd expect similar to '-' so 60-80k. Despite the two long-running Top 10 hits, I'm not sure the singles as a whole have convinced many more people to buy / stream the album than 'Eyes Closed' did. Maybe the tour pre-sales will push it above 80k, but 100k seems a bit of a stretch.