2026 singles year to date estimates

August 20Aug 20

1 hour ago, Paramore said:
The cutoff for t100 was 425k approx last year. Will probably be significantly lower this year if 50 haven’t met that by September

When you get lower down streaming charts, everything gets bunched up a LOT more. So there's loads of songs that don't have to "sell" that much in 4 months to make the threshold (also a few Christmas songs are almost guaranteed to get in which will make the threshold higher).

Anything that's selling consistently that's at two-thirds of 420k (280k I think) will probably make it by the end of the year.

The better metric to predict by would I think be whether the top 100 has all made 280,000 by the end of August, which it already has. So on that basis I think this year will beat last year.

2

August 21Aug 21

Not expecting any new entries this week but could see Dai Dai potentially sneaking in and knocking Dakota out.

1

August 24Aug 24

Author

It hasn’t been a very exciting year for the singles chart but it’s shaping up to be an incredibly tight battle for the year end #1. Just as I think one song has it wrapped up the other comes back. At one point “Man I Need” was doing almost the same weekly numbers as “Rein Me In” and looked safe, but then the latter pulled away very strongly in weekly sales and looked like it was going to close the gap very quickly. Now they’ve narrowed again. “Rein Me In” did 4.5k more this week and the overall gap is 81k with (I think?) 19 weeks left. I really can’t call it.

2

August 25Aug 25

Author

Week 34:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,657,000	2,760,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,576,000	2,260,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,039,000	3,220,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,024,000	1,630,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	992,000	1,230,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	930,000	1,310,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	910,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	880,000	3,920,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	875,000	2,210,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	855,000	1,600,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	773,000	900,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	748,000	1,520,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	741,000	1,920,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	723,000	860,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	709,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	692,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	676,000	1,200,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	663,000	760,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	638,000	810,000
20	20	Harry Styles	American Girls	621,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	619,000
22	22	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	603,000	4,120,000
23	23	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	602,000	640,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	581,000	7,380,000
25	25	Taylor Swift	Opalite	571,000	980,000
26	26	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	566,000	1,310,000
27	28	Sombr	Back To Friends	551,000	1,460,000
28	27	Harry Styles	Aperture	547,000
29	29	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	546,000	1,270,000
30	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	524,000	630,000
31	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	507,000	4,440,000
32	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	503,000	5,060,000
33	34	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	492,000	3,420,000
34	33	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	492,000	1,300,000
35	35	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	488,000	1,630,000
36	36	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	488,000
37	37	Dominic Fike	White Keys	475,000	480,000
38	38	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	475,000	2,280,000
39	41	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	467,000	1,710,000
40	39	Justin Bieber	Daisies	465,000	970,000
50	51	Noah Kahan	Stick Season	391,000	3,640,000
52	56	ANOTR featuring 54 Ultra	Talk To You	389,000
53	60	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	384,000
61	63	Oasis	Wonderwall	366,000	5,680,000
65	74	Olivia Rodrigo	The Cure	353,000
67	73	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	350,000	380,000
74	84	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	344,000
92	93	Chemical Brothers	Go	316,000	750,000

5

August 25Aug 25

34 minutes ago, Julian_ said:
Week 34:
1
1
Olivia Dean
Man I Need
1,657,000
2,760,000
2
2
Sam Fender and Olivia Dean
Rein Me In
1,576,000
2,260,000
3
3
Alex Warren
Ordinary
1,039,000
3,220,000
4
4
Raye
Where Is My Husband!
1,024,000
1,630,000
5
5
Dave featuring Tems
Raindance
992,000
1,230,000
6
6
Olivia Dean
So Easy (To Fall In Love)
930,000
1,310,000
7
7
Bella Kay
Iloveitiloveitiloveit
910,000
8
8
Zara Larsson
Lush Life
880,000
3,920,000
9
9
Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast
Golden
875,000
2,210,000
10
10
Taylor Swift
The Fate Of Ophelia
855,000
1,600,000
11
11
PinkPantheress
Stateside
773,000
900,000
12
12
Olivia Dean
Nice To Each Other
748,000
1,520,000
13
13
Djo
End Of Beginning
741,000
1,920,000
14
14
Tame Impala
Dracula
723,000
860,000
15
15
Sombr
Homewrecker
709,000
16
16
Bruno Mars
I Just Might
692,000
17
17
Sombr
12 To 12
676,000
1,200,000
18
18
Zara Larsson
Midnight Sun
663,000
760,000
19
19
Sienna Spiro
Die On This Hill
638,000
810,000
20
20
Harry Styles
American Girls
621,000
21
21
Alex Warren
Fever Dream
619,000
22
22
Michael Jackson
Billie Jean
603,000
4,120,000
23
23
Ella Langley
Choosin' Texas
602,000
640,000
24
24
The Killers
Mr Brightside
581,000
7,380,000
25
25
Taylor Swift
Opalite
571,000
980,000
26
26
Dominic Fike
Babydoll
566,000
1,310,000
27
28
Sombr
Back To Friends
551,000
1,460,000
28
27
Harry Styles
Aperture
547,000
29
29
Disco Lines and Tinashe
No Broke Boys
546,000
1,270,000
30
30
Milky
Just The Way You Are
524,000
630,000
31
31
Fleetwood Mac
Dreams
507,000
4,440,000
32
32
Goo Goo Dolls
Iris
503,000
5,060,000
33
34
Benson Boone
Beautiful Things
492,000
3,420,000
34
33
Sabrina Carpenter
Manchild
492,000
1,300,000
35
35
Ravyn Lenae
Love Me Not
488,000
1,630,000
36
36
Olivia Rodrigo
Drop Dead
488,000
37
37
Chappell Roan
Pink Pony Club
475,000
2,280,000
38
38
Dominic Fike
White Keys
474,000
480,000
39
41
Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj
Beauty And A Beat
467,000
1,710,000
40
39
Justin Bieber
Daisies
465,000
970,000
50
51
Noah Kahan
Stick Season
391,000
3,640,000
52
56
ANOTR featuring 54 Ultra
Talk To You
389,000
53
60
Prospa & Cloonee
Free Your Mind
384,000
65
74
Olivia Rodrigo
The Cure
353,000
67
73
Malcolm Todd
Earrings
350,000
380,000
74
84
Ariana Grande
Hate That I Made You Love Me
344,000
92
93
Chemical Brothers
Go
316,000
750,000

The One that got away?

August 25Aug 25

Author

14 minutes ago, Piethro said:
The One that got away?

It will be mentioned in the update if it ever enters.

3

August 26Aug 26

So Bella Kay is looking to score the highest 2026 release

1

August 27Aug 27

I reckon that "Choosin' Texas" will overtake "Midnight Sun" within the next 2-3 months.

Edited August 27Aug 27 by DanielCarey

1

August 28Aug 28

Dai Dai and Stupid Song should be in this week with Dakota and Don't Stop Believin' out

3

September 1Sep 1

Author

Week 35:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,693,000	2,790,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,616,000	2,300,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,062,000	3,240,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,042,000	1,650,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	1,007,000	1,240,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	948,000	1,320,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	927,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	896,000	3,940,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	891,000	2,220,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	869,000	1,620,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	784,000	910,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	763,000	1,540,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	751,000	1,930,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	737,000	870,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	726,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	704,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	690,000	1,220,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	682,000	780,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	654,000	820,000
20	20	Harry Styles	American Girls	634,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	632,000
22	23	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	628,000	660,000
23	22	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	620,000	4,140,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	599,000	7,400,000
25	26	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	578,000	1,320,000
26	25	Taylor Swift	Opalite	577,000	990,000
27	27	Sombr	Back To Friends	561,000	1,470,000
28	29	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	556,000	1,280,000
29	28	Harry Styles	Aperture	554,000
30	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	532,000	640,000
31	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	521,000	4,460,000
32	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	517,000	5,080,000
33	33	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	506,000	3,440,000
34	34	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	502,000	1,310,000
35	36	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	502,000
36	35	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	499,000	1,640,000
37	38	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	486,000	2,290,000
38	37	Dominic Fike	White Keys	484,000	490,000
39	39	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	479,000	1,720,000
40	40	Justin Bieber	Daisies	474,000	980,000
49	52	ANOTR featuring 54 Ultra	Talk To You	408,000
51	53	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	405,000
58	59	Vance Joy	Riptide	387,000	5,130,000
66	67	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	366,000	390,000
67	74	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	365,000
91	-	Shakira & Burna Boy	Dai Dai	327,000
96	98	Taylor Swift	I Knew It, I Knew You	322,000
100	-	Olivia Rodrigo	Stupid Song	318,000
-	99	Journey	Don't Stop Believin'	313,000	4,610,000
-	100	Stereophonics	Dakota	309,000	3,060,000

2

September 2Sep 2

stupid song sneaking in! looks like Choosin' Texas'll enter the YTD top twenty next week

September 3Sep 3

No Dakota - will be sad if it misses out again

September 4Sep 4

Should see Boston sneaking in with DTMF falling out this week

1
1

September 8Sep 8

Author

Week 36:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,726,000	2,830,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,655,000	2,340,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,081,000	3,260,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,060,000	1,670,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	1,022,000	1,260,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	965,000	1,340,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	944,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	911,000	3,950,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	907,000	2,240,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	883,000	1,630,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	794,000	920,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	777,000	1,550,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	761,000	1,940,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	750,000	890,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	742,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	714,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	704,000	1,230,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	699,000	800,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	670,000	840,000
20	22	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	655,000	690,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	646,000
22	20	Harry Styles	American Girls	645,000
23	23	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	635,000	4,160,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	616,000	7,420,000
25	25	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	588,000	1,330,000
26	26	Taylor Swift	Opalite	585,000	990,000
27	27	Sombr	Back To Friends	572,000	1,480,000
28	28	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	565,000	1,290,000
29	29	Harry Styles	Aperture	561,000
30	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	540,000	650,000
31	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	534,000	4,470,000
32	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	531,000	5,090,000
33	33	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	519,000	3,450,000
34	35	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	516,000
35	34	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	512,000	1,320,000
36	36	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	510,000	1,650,000
37	37	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	496,000	2,300,000
38	38	Dominic Fike	White Keys	492,000	500,000
39	39	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	490,000	1,730,000
40	41	Olivia Dean	The Hardest Part	484,000	1,220,000
50	51	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	423,000
59	63	Olivia Rodrigo	The Cure	390,000
60	61	Oasis	Wonderwall	390,000	5,710,000
62	67	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	386,000
65	66	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	379,000	410,000
68	69	Calvin Harris And Clementine Douglas	Blessings	368,000	1,010,000
72	75	Harry Styles	Sign Of The Times	364,000	2,560,000
79	91	Shakira & Burna Boy	Dai Dai	355,000
87	100	Olivia Rodrigo	Stupid Song	340,000
93	96	Taylor Swift	I Knew It, I Knew You	334,000
98	-	Stella Lefty	Boston	329,000
-	99	Bad Bunny	DtMF	323,000	510,000

4

September 11Sep 11

Not sure we'll get any new entries this week but we may see a re-entry for an oldie as Let Alone The One You Love falls out

1

September 11Sep 11

ouch at DtMF falling short. that god awful Drake song was on track to enter correct?

September 11Sep 11

Just now, Jay79x said:
ouch at DtMF falling short. that god awful Drake song was on track to enter correct?

Yeah Janice STFU is looking to enter in the next month or so. Won't be the next new entry though as Material Lover is coming up fast

2

September 11Sep 11

1 minute ago, gasman449 said:
Yeah Janice STFU is looking to enter in the next month or so. Won't be the next new entry though as Material Lover is coming up fast

ugh thank god. need it to slow down further URGENTLY. also good music coming up fast cheeseblock

1

September 16Sep 16

Author

Week 37:

1	1	Olivia Dean	Man I Need	1,760,000	2,860,000
2	2	Sam Fender and Olivia Dean	Rein Me In	1,693,000	2,380,000
3	3	Alex Warren	Ordinary	1,103,000	3,280,000
4	4	Raye	Where Is My Husband!	1,077,000	1,680,000
5	5	Dave featuring Tems	Raindance	1,038,000	1,280,000
6	6	Olivia Dean	So Easy (To Fall In Love)	981,000	1,360,000
7	7	Bella Kay	Iloveitiloveitiloveit	960,000
8	8	Zara Larsson	Lush Life	926,000	3,970,000
9	9	Huntr/x, Ejae, Audrey Nuna, Rei Ami & KPop Demon Hunters Cast	Golden	922,000	2,250,000
10	10	Taylor Swift	The Fate Of Ophelia	895,000	1,640,000
11	11	PinkPantheress	Stateside	804,000	930,000
12	12	Olivia Dean	Nice To Each Other	791,000	1,570,000
13	13	Djo	End Of Beginning	770,000	1,950,000
14	14	Tame Impala	Dracula	762,000	900,000
15	15	Sombr	Homewrecker	759,000
16	16	Bruno Mars	I Just Might	724,000
17	17	Sombr	12 To 12	717,000	1,240,000
18	18	Zara Larsson	Midnight Sun	716,000	820,000
19	19	Sienna Spiro	Die On This Hill	685,000	860,000
20	20	Ella Langley	Choosin' Texas	681,000	720,000
21	21	Alex Warren	Fever Dream	659,000
22	22	Harry Styles	American Girls	657,000
23	23	Michael Jackson	Billie Jean	651,000	4,170,000
24	24	The Killers	Mr Brightside	633,000	7,430,000
25	25	Dominic Fike	Babydoll	599,000	1,340,000
26	26	Taylor Swift	Opalite	592,000	1,000,000
27	27	Sombr	Back To Friends	584,000	1,490,000
28	28	Disco Lines and Tinashe	No Broke Boys	574,000	1,300,000
29	29	Harry Styles	Aperture	567,000
30	31	Fleetwood Mac	Dreams	548,000	4,480,000
31	32	Goo Goo Dolls	Iris	545,000	5,110,000
32	30	Milky	Just The Way You Are	544,000	650,000
33	33	Benson Boone	Beautiful Things	531,000	3,460,000
34	34	Olivia Rodrigo	Drop Dead	529,000
35	36	Ravyn Lenae	Love Me Not	522,000	1,660,000
36	35	Sabrina Carpenter	Manchild	521,000	1,330,000
37	37	Chappell Roan	Pink Pony Club	507,000	2,310,000
38	39	Justin Bieber featuring Nicki Minaj	Beauty And A Beat	502,000	1,740,000
39	38	Dominic Fike	White Keys	500,000	510,000
40	40	Olivia Dean	The Hardest Part	496,000	1,230,000
49	50	Prospa & Cloonee	Free Your Mind	441,000
55	59	Olivia Rodrigo	The Cure	409,000
60	62	Ariana Grande	Hate That I Made You Love Me	404,000
63	65	Malcolm Todd	Earrings	393,000	420,000
68	79	Shakira & Burna Boy	Dai Dai	379,000
70	72	Harry Styles	Sign Of The Times	375,000	2,570,000
78	87	Olivia Rodrigo	Stupid Song	363,000
85	98	Stella Lefty	Boston	353,000
92	93	Taylor Swift	I Knew It, I Knew You	345,000

1

September 16Sep 16

Mr. Brightside and Dreams looking like they might both get new year-end peaks this year then - truly such a fresh year for pop music! cheeseblock

wonder how much longer Go can keep on go-ing at the very bottom of the Top 100

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2026 singles year to date estimates

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