Little Mix now, they are not my faves but it would be good to have a different kind of winner for a change.

Little Mix. Marcus would be a good winner too though.

Basically, as long as it's not Amelia Lily...

Marcus! :D

Also, when was the last time it seemed like ANY of the top three could realistically win? The closest I can think to it is 2008.

 

Can Amelia realistically win? It honestly looks like a two way battle to me.

 

I fear the 'mum support' and 'I only watch the final' voters could swing it for Marcus (as much as I like him) but I'd love to see Little Mix take it. Then again, do I think they'd be as good on SyCo as with ANY other record label? Almost certainly not so I'm torn. I want Little Mix to win but in the long term I wonder if it could harm them...they're going to be huge regardless but an October wait for the debut single would do them no favours at all, they need to strike whilst the iron's hot, Girls Aloud were on single number four by autumn 2003 - keep the momentum going!

I don't think Amelia can realistically win, I still believe all the no act in the bottom two has ever won stuff. There also seem to be a fair few people not happy at how she skipped a chuck of the live shows, that won't exactly work in her favour.

 

Little Mix for me. They might do better by not winning, but I want to see a band win for once (and a girl band at that), and it's just nice to be able to call them the winners. Don't reckon much to Marcus at all.

I basically voted on the basis of how SyCo would least ruin, although inevitably all three will be signed so that's probably a bit daft. But I still get the sense that the runners-up get a bit more freedom in what music they end up releasing, because there's a bit less pressure on them so they can get away with releasing more interesting/risky material.

 

So I voted for Amelia Lily. Obvious route is a fairly pleasant one of Clarkson/P!nk-style pop-rock. If Marcus won he'd be forced down this ridiculous Bruno Mars route he's chosen, but not winning might get him some less overused songwriters. Little Mix need the freedom to release joyful mid-'90s girlband soul and god knows what they'd be shafted with if they win.

Can Amelia realistically win? It honestly looks like a two way battle to me.

A proper poll from Survation this week had Amelia, Little Mix and Marcus all VERY close (29.2%, 28.4% and 27.2% respectively - but Misha was on 15.2%), while YouGov had them all fairly even a couple of weeks back in terms of support. I'd keep an eye on YouGov's poll this week as they've called the order of the final three correctly every year for three years now, but when mass polls have them all fairly even I wouldn't sniff at it.

 

Additionally you have to look at how the production decisions have gone. A site I follow, sofabet.com, goes into MASSIVE detail on how staging decisions and running order and judges comments can affect contestants chances, and normally tends to be on the money (well, it would have to be given it's a betting site :D), and currently they're postulating that a possible ramping up of Amelia could be taking place. I'll give you the piece they did tonight and leave you to judge for yourself:

 

X Factor 2011 Week 9 Post Mortem: Amelia rated

 

So, farewell then, Misha B. You were clearly the most talented semi-finalist on that stage, but you didn’t make the final and nobody was remotely surprised. To sum up Misha’s journey, we can do no better than quote The Bitch Factor’s review of the week 7 show:

 

Misha VTs that she doesn’t know what she’s doing wrong. Ooh! Ooh! I know! You started off being a confident black woman, which is always an obstacle on this show, then Tulisa threw you under the bus, then you reinvented yourself as someone tediously humble who gives low-key performances, thereby alienating the small but appreciative group of people who liked you in the first place. I think that covers it, right?

 

We’ll look back more on Misha B’s X Factor journey in the next article, revisiting the bullygate question with the benefit of hindsight. But for now let’s offer some further observations after re-watching Saturday’s show.

 

This morning Boki wrote in the comments: “What I have learned here is that at this stage judges tend to praise everyone but yesterday they de-ramped both favorites to win! Why is that, simple internal clash within them or still scripted?” It’s a great question.

 

We wrote yesterday about how surprised we were when Gary said Perrie should be recognised as the lead singer of Little Mix, given this had been used as a vote-dampening tactic for both Nu Vibe and The Risk this series. In our surprise, we hadn’t fully clocked until we re-watched it that Louis backed him up by shouting that Diana Ross led the Supremes, and Kelly also yelled out at Dermot that groups need a lead singer.

 

What do we make of this? Could it be that all three other judges are in revolt against the producers’ pushing of the girl band? Perhaps it’s most likely that Gary’s comments were premeditated, but dear old Louis forgot himself in the heat of the moment and merely wanted to re-establish his knowledge of the motown era, having just killed off the still very much alive Berry Gordy in his comments to Misha.

 

Or does the three-judge hitting of this point indicate it could have been a planned dampening of Little Mix? It seems unlikely – why then switch the order of Marcus and Little Mix for the second round of songs, putting the girlband in the pimp slot?

 

We don’t know for a fact they were switched, of course. But it looked very much like Gary was genuinely surprised when Dermot came to him to introduce Marcus as the penultimate act. There was a look of amused incredulity and an “OK… wow”, which seems challenging to explain in any other way.

 

Perhaps the de-ramping of both favourites was merely an inevitability given that they were both, well, a bit shite. Marcus’s struggles with his lower register in ‘Can You Feel It’ fully deserved the negative comments from the other three judges, and made Gary’s praise reek of similar unlikely things he said about Frankie Cocozza.

 

Meanwhile, the opening bars of Little Mix’s performance of ‘If I Were A Boy’ amply demonstrated why they have needed liberal use of the One Direction Memorial Backing Track this series, and why Gary was right to point out that we have a developing “Perrie and the Woo Woo Girls” situation on our hands.

 

The comments on Little Mix’s pimp slot were a fascinating combination of outrageous hype from Kelly with acknowledgement of disappointing reality. Louis: “If you work harder, get the styling right, this is the next big girl band”. But why aren’t they working hard enough? Why isn’t the styling right yet? They’ve had nine weeks.

 

Kelly: “When you guys find the strength within each other, who brings out the best in the group… once you figure that out, this group is going be so dynamic and change the world”. But why haven’t they figured it out yet? Aren’t putative winners supposed to be completing their journeys by this late stage of the show, not standing by the roadside confusedly consulting a map?

 

Tulisa’s comments were oddest of all: “there’s only one recording contract in this competition, and if people want to hear your music after the show they have to pick up the phone and vote”. How unaware does she think voters are? Or was she not paying attention when Olly Murs appeared on stage six days previously, and has she not heard Cher or One Direction in the charts this year? (She hadn’t heard of ‘Think’, so it wouldn’t be entirely surprising).

 

We suspect the de-ramping of both favourites is probably more of a cock-up than anything else. But there is one possibility we ought to consider. Could it possibly be that this is all now intended to smooth the way for an Amelia victory?

 

As regular readers will know, our view on this has long been the one Richard eloquently expressed in a post at Betsfactor today:

 

My hunch is they would have prefered Amelia to go, because if she wins it makes a mockery of the entire show. It also makes a mockery of the judges deciding who to put through and shows Kelly made a catastrophic error of judgement. If Amelia wins, Kelly couldn’t even spot that she would be popular with the public and ranked her FOURTH out of the girls. What an utterly useless and inept judge and what a utter waste of time. So if she wins, it will be shambolic for the show – but this year has been full of cock ups like that!

 

Though we are increasingly coming round to the view expressed by EM in the comments today:

 

I’ve long said Amelia winning or doing well is a storyline the producers would love. They’re quite happy to have mud slung at the judges if it means money in the bank. Look the judges got it wrong but my how Amelia and the British public told them so.

 

Amelia narrowly heads the pack in a tight race according to the latest Survation survey (thanks Shoulders for pointing this out). Let’s also remember that there are a couple of vote-grabbing storylines that could be trotted out in Amelia’s VTs next week – we never got the rumoured diabetes VT in week 8, and we now discover that Supportive Dad is apparently bankrupt (hat-tip Sam B).

 

Could it possibly be that Amelia is the new Plan A? There is a plausible case for thinking she might be easier to get across the finishing line than Little Mix, and more commercially viable than Marcus. And you would presumably worry less about embarrassing a judge if that judge might not be coming back next year.

 

What are your thoughts? Is the Good Ship Marcus holed below the waterline? Is the Little Mix steamroller running out of gas? Do let us know in the comments box below.

Regardless of all of that, Amelia was in the bottom two a couple of weeks ago (even though odds before those results had her in the lead - she never has been since, as Jahq says, nobody wins after you've been tainted by the bottom two). I don't know about these polls but NOBODY who I work with or am friends with ever talks about Amelia at all, everybody talks about both Marcus and Little Mix however, she has no profile at all compared to those two in my opinion. Add to the fact that indeed it would be rather embarrassing for the show to have a winner that bypassed half of the live shows and might prove unpopular in the aftermath for that very reason and I just don't see Amelia winning at all. I can't see her finishing anywhere but a distant third right now but we'll see! Stranger things have happened but I think an Amelia win would result in a Leon Jackson style 400-500k total selling debut winner's single whereas either Marcus or Little Mix could quite feasibly pull a 700k+ seller out of the bag considering the public support that they seem to have.

 

Although she's now second with the bookies. I think they're underestimating Marcus' double advantage of being the only male in the final and having the 'mum vote' on his side personally...

Don't buy their Amelia theory. The producers want a Little Mix victory, I'm sure of it. It would look good for them. A group wins. Win situation as that has never happened before. And the winning act is mentored by a new judge. Wow, masterstroke decision from the production staff of who to hire!

 

I think in every VT of Amelia's her story has been "it was aken away from me, but now I'm back I want to win soooooo much, it would mean the world to me". Boring.

Really dont mind/care. Quite a weak top 3 compared to some of the other years, but i do like all 3 and all 3 acts are good.

I dont think it would be fair if Amelia won, So i hope she doesn't, She doesn't have a story missed 5 lives shows and slagged the show off thats about it, Anyway marcus or little mix to win! I really dont mind what one aslong as it isn't Amelia. :)

Oh, I don't think Amelia's going to win, but I'm certainly not going to rule it out!

Don't buy their Amelia theory. The producers want a Little Mix victory, I'm sure of it. It would look good for them. A group wins. Win situation as that has never happened before. And the winning act is mentored by a new judge. Wow, masterstroke decision from the production staff of who to hire!

 

I think in every VT of Amelia's her story has been "it was aken away from me, but now I'm back I want to win soooooo much, it would mean the world to me". Boring.

 

I would agree. They've been wanting to break the Groups curse for a long time now (and the increasingly desperate and extreme attempts to manufacture groups with each passing year prove it), and it comes at an especially convenient time with Girls Aloud and Sugababes pretty much gone, and the Saturdays looking to be joining them pronto. And they must also know that following Matt Cardle and Joe McElderry, a MOR winner is the LAST thing they need. There couldn't be a better time for a young girl group to win.

 

Having said that I don't think they were necessarily invested in Little Mix from the start. I still believe The Risk were the designated frontrunners to begin with, and I don't think they were fully aware that for the first time they'd created a girl group where each individual member was actually a pretty passable vocalist in their own right. It's only been in the past few weeks (maybe not even until the Don't Let Go moment) that they've cottoned on that a Little Mix victory is actually quite the possibility.

 

Although, frankly how can Little Mix NOT win now what with Tulisa badgering the entire populations of HIGH WYCOMBE and EXETER to pick up their phones and vote.

I like them all but Little Mix for me as they are the first girl group to reach the final in history, it would mean the world to them as they didn't expect to get this far plus they are really good and there needs to be a new girl group on the market. Amelia I do like her a lot and she was consistently fab on both songs on Saturday but 1 it would be very unfair for her to win it after just coming back into the show 5/6 weeks later and she'd have a big career anyway. So I'd prefer her not to win. As for Marcus, I wouldn't mind him winning but we've got and had some so many of him orientated artists in the music industry.

 

LITTLE MIX FTW :dance:

Edited December 5, 201113 yr by Rob Summers

I would agree. They've been wanting to break the Groups curse for a long time now (and the increasingly desperate and extreme attempts to manufacture groups with each passing year prove it), and it comes at an especially convenient time with Girls Aloud and Sugababes pretty much gone, and the Saturdays looking to be joining them pronto. And they must also know that following Matt Cardle and Joe McElderry, a MOR winner is the LAST thing they need. There couldn't be a better time for a young girl group to win.

 

Having said that I don't think they were necessarily invested in Little Mix from the start. I still believe The Risk were the designated frontrunners to begin with, and I don't think they were fully aware that for the first time they'd created a girl group where each individual member was actually a pretty passable vocalist in their own right. It's only been in the past few weeks (maybe not even until the Don't Let Go moment) that they've cottoned on that a Little Mix victory is actually quite the possibility.

 

Although, frankly how can Little Mix NOT win now what with Tulisa badgering the entire populations of HIGH WYCOMBE and EXETER to pick up their phones and vote.

 

Yeah I completely agree with this. I don't think ANY of the final 3 were expected to ever reach the final. Little Mix I'm sure will have a big range of voters. They're like a true underdog story. No-one ever expeced them to come this far. The Risk looked to be the producers choice, and I thought they'd at least make the final. Why Ashley left / was kicked out I don't know. It all seemed to come out of nowhere. I can't help but feel Little Mix were aided by their name change. It got them a lot of extra media attention. Then their version of E.T. was vvvv.good.

 

I don't really buy all these producer theories. I know there is a lot of manipulation on the show, but I think sometimes people just over-analyse the stuff that happens. They're wanting a conspiracy rather than there actually being one. Amelia winning would be the scenario the producers least want I am sure. It would make Kelly Rowland's decision in the first week to look ludacris, and their ridiculous twist in the first week would also be seen to MORE OF A MESS than it already is.

Until Saturday's performances I would've said Marcus had it pretty much in the bag. Now I think Little Mix will take it. I agree that Amelia will be a distant third and I think that's for the best, since she DID bypass half of the lives shows (therefore naturally has a smaller fanbase making it less likely she'll win AND less likely she'll sell those records) and I think her voice is rather boring and shouty personally.

 

Oh and I WANT Marcus to win (and hopefully not do a Steve/Leon/Joe/Matt thanks), but I'd be more than fine with a Little Mix win.

Little Mix!

Little Mix!

Hope people actually pick up the phone and vote!

 

Amelia-Lily all the way! I hope all of the NORTH EAST are behind her too!

Amelia please! If not then Little Mix :)