February 5, 201213 yr Final odds from BetVia: Ashton: Tone Damli - Look Back - 2/1 Ramyrnia: Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe - 4/1 Numayania: The Storm - My Crown - 5/1 FSR Rontvia: Prance Faris - Flares - 5/1 Syndare: SoSo - Who's Gonna Love Me - 6/1 ------------------------------ Fljótavík: Foxes - Youth - 8/1 Unovia: Dia Frampton - Billy The Kid - 10/1 Séyetana: Nightwish - Turn Loose The Mermaids - 12/1 Batidas: Studio Killers - Ode To The Bouncer - 12/1 Kopečka: Lena Phillipsson -Live Tomorrow (Sthlm Mix) - 14/1 FYR-Vodjvodnia-On-The-Wold: Le Kid - Human Behaviour - 14/1 Botanikka: Ria Ritchie - Only One - 16/1 Mdiče: MNDR - #1 In Heaven - 16/1 Espen: Moa Lignell - When I Held Ya - 18/1 ChrIseland: Donkeyboy - City Boy - 18/1 Allecian: Mercedes & I - Wintersnow - 20/1 Kluminican Republic: Paulina Rubio - Heat Of The Night - 20/1 Caerfryddia: Marigold - You And I Know - 20/1 B.a.N.G.: Lydia Caesar - Lottery - 22/1 Daehun: moumoon - Sunshine Girl - 22/1 Hendinia: DJ Tatana ft. Natalia Kills - You Can't Get In My Head (If You Don't Get In My Bed - 25/1 Scherzland: Vox Halo ft. LaDolla - Criminal - 25/1 N-Lazone: Ian Carey & Rosette ft. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia - 25/1 Lievant: Mullyhaus ft. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar Liar - 25/1 Kylienips: School Of Seven Bells - The Night - 28/1 Bignia-Zaragovina: Britt Daley - One And Only - 30/1 Greenfroze: Belanova - Mariposas - 30/1 Budtar: Marvin Priest ft. Wynter Gordon - Take Me Away - 33/1 Tinmark: Andremo ft. Coco - Music Is Turning Me On - 35/1 Hogan-Burg Republic: Emily Osment - All The Way Up - 38/1 Sangria: Moonlight Breakfast - Still - 40/1
February 5, 201213 yr Greenfroze - Belanova - Mariposas 30/1 Greenfroze - Belanova - Mariposas || 22/1 Such different odds for me! :o
February 5, 201213 yr Such different odds for me! :o It's a good song (I almost sent a Belanova song to BJSC before actually :o) but auto-qualifying countries always have an uphill struggle to do well in the final unless the song is outstanding, purely because the 15 qualifying from each semi have a ton of existing support already and hence have a massive headstart. It's why I decided to opt out of AQ'ing when I was hosting the last couple of times, I was also sending growers to both of those contests and the extra week of people hearing it definitely helps out a grower imo!
February 5, 201213 yr I'm above Greenfroze track in Liam's odds :o I can see myself finishing bottom 5 though
February 5, 201213 yr Updated odds from BETidas: 3/1 Ashton : Tone Damli - Look back 7/2 Ramrynia : Carly Rae Jepsen - Call me maybe 5/1 Syndare : SoSo - Who's gonna love me 5/1 FSR Rontvia : Prance Faris - Flares 8/1 Numayania : The Storm - My crown 10/1 Fljótavík : Foxes - Youth 12/1 ChrIseland : Donkeyboy - City boy 12/1 Unovia : Dia Frampton - Billy the Kid 14/1 Batidas : Studio Killers - Ode to the bouncer 14/1 Mdiče : MNDR - #1 in heaven 16/1 FYR Vojvodina-On-The-Wold : Le Kid - Human behaviour 16/1 Daehun : moumoon - Sunshine girl 18/1 Kopečka : Lena Philipsson - Live tomorrow (Sthlm Mix) 18/1 Séyetana : Nightwish - Turn loose the mermaids 20/1 N-Lazone : Ian Carey & Rosette feat. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia 22/1 Caerfyrddia : Marigold - You and I know 24/1 B.a.N.G : Lydia Caesar - Lottery 24/1 Espen : Moa Lignell - When I held ya 25/1 Greenfroze: Belanova - Mariposas 25/1 Kluminican Republic : Paulina Rubio - Heat of the night 28/1 Botanikka : Ria Ritchie - Only one 28/1 Kylienips : School of Seven Bells - The night 30/1 Hendinia : Tatana feat. Natalia Kills - You can't get in my head (If you don't get in my bed) 30/1 Budtar : Marvin Priest feat. Wynter Gordon - Take me away 32/1 Tinnmark : Andremo feat. Coco - Music is turning me on 34/1 Scherzland : Vox Halo feat. LaDolla - Criminal 34/1 Bignia-Zaragovina : Britt Daley - One and only 36/1 Allecian : Mercedes and I - Wintersnow 38/1 Sangria : Moonlight Breakfast - Still 40/1 Lievant : Mullyhaus feat. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar liar! 45/1 Hogan-Burg Republic : Emily Osment - All the way up
February 5, 201213 yr Ramrynia still seems to be 2nd favourite on everyone's odds behind Ashton! Very happy with that :D
February 5, 201213 yr It's a good song (I almost sent a Belanova song to BJSC before actually :o) but auto-qualifying countries always have an uphill struggle to do well in the final unless the song is outstanding, purely because the 15 qualifying from each semi have a ton of existing support already and hence have a massive headstart. It's why I decided to opt out of AQ'ing when I was hosting the last couple of times, I was also sending growers to both of those contests and the extra week of people hearing it definitely helps out a grower imo! Ooh? What did you almost send? :o Nada de más? I see what you mean, though. I don't expect to have a following support, but.. if people like my song I hope they'd like to vote for it as well even if it wasn't in their semi.
February 5, 201213 yr Mixed odds for me so far varying from 10/1 - 70/1 :lol:, I would quite happily put some money on myself at AshBet and Aquafina's betting shops right now though. :P SéyetBet: Ashton - Tone Damli - Look back 2/1 Numayania - The Storm - My crown 5/2 Ramrynia - Carly Rae Jepsen - Call me maybe 3/1 Syndare - SoSo - Who's gonna love me 5/1 -------------- Fljótavík - Foxes - Youth 8/1 Kopečka - Lena Philipsson - Live tomorrow (Sthlm Mix) 17/2 FSR Rontvia - Prance Faris - Flares 9/1 Séyetana - Nightwish - Turn loose the mermaids 10/1 Unovia - Dia Frampton - Billy the Kid 10/1 Mdiče - MNDR - #1 in heaven 12/1 Kluminican Republic - Paulina Rubio - Heat of the night 15/1 Batidas - Studio Killers - Ode to the bouncer 15/1 ChrIseland - Donkeyboy - City boy 15/1 FYR Vojvodina-On-The-Wold - Le Kid - Human behaviour 18/1 Daehun – moumoon – Sunshine girl 18/1 Allecian - Mercedes and I - Wintersnow 18/1 Budtar – Marvin Priest feat. Wynter Gordon – Take me away 20/1 Bignia-Zaragovina - Britt Daley - One and only 20/1 Espen - Moa Lignell - When I held ya 22/1 Kylienips - School of Seven Bells - The night 25/1 Caerfyrddia – Marigold – You and I know 25/1 Greenfroze - Belanova - Mariposas 30/1 Botanikka - Ria Ritchie - Only one 30/1 N-Lazone - Ian Carey & Rosette feat. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia 30/1 Lievant - Mullyhaus feat. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar liar 36/1 Hendinia - DJ Tatana feat Natalia Kills - You can't get in my head (if you don't get in my bed) 40/1 B.a.N.G - Lydia Caesar - Lottery 45/1 Hogan-Burg Republic - Emily Osment - All the way up 50/1 Scherzland - Vox Halo feat. LaDolla - Criminal 60/1 Sangria - Moonlight Breakfast - Still 70/1 Tinnmark - Andremo feat. Coco - Music is turning me on 80/1 Ashton's to lose at this point, they definitely seem to be gaining momentum. It'd be a huge shock for me if it was anyone other than the top 4 though.
February 5, 201213 yr Ooh? What did you almost send? :o Nada de más? I see what you mean, though. I don't expect to have a following support, but.. if people like my song I hope they'd like to vote for it as well even if it wasn't in their semi. Indeed, I like quite a few songs by them. I also strongly considered Inevitable by Dulce Maria (a similar act) once but I never ended up liking these songs quite as much as my eventual entries. You'll definitely get points of course, it won't put people off voting for it if they really like it. Loads of auto-qualifiers have done well in the past to prove this point! AQ's are at a disadvantage to everybody else but it doesn't mean that they can't do well. The same rule applies to Eurovision, all of the qualifiers from the semis have existing supporters but with a fantastic song - Satellite, It's My Time etc...this can be overcome. However, AQ's are also most likely to finish bottom five if they don't have a strong song. Step forward Spain or the UK most years :lol:
February 5, 201213 yr Updated odds from Synbrokes: 2/1 (Ashton) Tone Damli - Look Back 4/1 (Fljótavík) Foxes - Youth 5/1 (Ramrynia) Carly Rae Jepsen - Call Me Maybe 5/1 (Numayania) The Storm - My Crown 6/1 (Unovia) Dia Frampton - Billy the Kid 7/1 (Syndare) SoSo - Who's Gonna Love Me --- 10/1 (FSR Rontvia) Prance Faris - Flares 10/1 (Botanikka) Ria Ritchie - Only One 12/1 (ChrIseland) Donkeyboy - City Boy 12/1 (Séyetana) Nightwish - Turn Loose the Mermaids 14/1 (Kopečka) Lena Philipsson - Live Tomorrow (Sthlm mix) 15/1 (Caerfyrddia) Marigold - You and I Know 16/1 (Espen) Moa Lignell - When I Held Ya 16/1 (B.a.N.G) Lydia Caesar - Lottery 18/1 (FYR Vojvodina-On-The-Wold) Le Kid - Human Behaviour 18/1 (N-Lazone) Ian Carey & Rosette feat. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia 18/1 (Lievant) Mollyhaus feat. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar Liar 20/1 (Daehun) moumoon - Sunshine Girl 20/1 (Batidas) Studio Killers - Ode to the Bouncer 22/1 (Mdiče) MNDR - #1 in Heaven 22/1 (Bignia-Zaragovina) Britt Daley - One and Only 24/1 (Hendinia) Tatana feat. Natalia Kills - You Can't Get In My Head 25/1 (Allecian) Mercedes and I - Wintersnow 28/1 (Kluminican Republic) Paulina Rubio - Heat of the Night 28/1 (Scherzland) Vox Halo feat. LaDolla - Criminal 30/1 (Kylienips) School of Seven Bells - The Night 30/1 (Sangria) Moonlight Breakfast - Still 32/1 (Tinnmark) Andremo feat. Coco - Music is Turning Me On 35/1 (Budtar) Marvin Priest feat. Wynter Gordon - Take Me Away 35/1 (Greenfroze) Belanova - Mariposas 50/1 (Hogan-Burg Republic) Emily Osment - All the Way Up Edited February 5, 201213 yr by råndomfurlöng
February 5, 201213 yr LOL. Very mixed odds for Ria...some odds are too good, some too bad. Soon I will post BotaBet odds.
February 5, 201213 yr To be fair, your second win should have come with Jag Kommer so it's a bit overdue! Who knows, maybe Mdice could wade in with another unexpected Tone Damli 12? :o Call Me Maybe might have quite a bit of crossover appeal, I saw it in West's chart in the personal chart forum and he's quite indie in his tastes usually. A strong pop song, which Look Back is, should always have a degree of crossover appeal. And if not then you could just twelve it to victory by not even appealing to the majority of the voters (until the UK release of course :funky:) a la Video Games! It's been a firm third in my odds throughout the week but as the hype for SoSo has petered off a bit (although I still can't envisage it outside the top five), the hype for Tone has only grown and grown, from comments I've seen in this and other threads it seems like you've already got five or six guaranteed 12's in the bag! More to the point, although the song is really instant, it's also an incredible grower. So people won't get bored of it after the first listen, but it's instantly likeable enough to know that you want to support it. And the sky's the limit on subsequent listens. I always appreciate seeing honesty over modesty in the odds. And it's great to see odds from AshBet, you really should do them every month! People that are worried about looking big headed by giving themselves good odds with a great song should just remember that if the UK had a stunning entry to Eurovision, a certain winner, I can guarantee that William Hill would restrict the odds to as narrow as possible, 6/4 or something, because everybody would rush to put money on their home country if they believed that we had a chance in a display of misplaced patriotism. British bookies always get the most money put on the United Kingdom, because Joe Public has never heard any of the other songs pre-contest and put a small bet on it just in case. There's no room for modesty at a bookmakers, you'd lose too much money. Which is why I never understood why the likes of Nonsuch and Kingdom of Shadow would downplay one of their many top 3's to a 40/1 along with a 'oh no, it's never going to do as well as you all think because...' type comment. Admittedly the former was proven correct with Never Leave You finishing 'only' 9th, which he hailed one of the greatest pop songs of the noughties when it leaked and he confirmed it. That's not delusion, that's incredible hyperbole. A win for Jag Kommer would have been nice, but I can't complain as I did really like the winner (just not as much as I love Forget Your Name :lol:). West I always saw as being pop when he participated here and very pro Canada as iirc he sent Lights. I think Carly Rae being big in Canada right now may have more to do with that than it's cross over appeal :heehee: I also can't see lightning striking twice on a Mdice 12 for Ashton. I found Look Back to be an instant 10.5/10 on first listen of the clip on Norwegian iTunes, but I am a complete loon for her. The full song bumped it up to a 11/10 straight off the bat. While I did fall instantly, I find that I keep coming back to it and I keep falling in love with new bits and new lyrics and just loving it more and more. I must admit I don't get the hype for SoSo as a winner. It's good but I just don't see it winning, there's something missing. Unlike Raining Diamonds, the second I heard that I knew it would walk away with the win. Was totally gutted I got beaten to that. I can't remember the last time I actually did odds, it's very rare we actually bother. Oh yeah, each country's own nation should figure quite well in their odds as in reality most people will put some money on their own country to win. Never Leave You wasn't helped by the Ashtonise hate campaign. I don't think the songs likely biggest fan speaking rather blatantly against it inspired much faith in his odds. I am so glad we have the veto and no reservation thread anymore. I'm not exaggerating when I say that the reservation thread is the single worst thing this contest has ever put up with re:format. When we did the reboot, I made it quite clear when I suggested the changes that it was under no circumstances to stay. Ruined the contest. Look Back is SO much better than Butterflies - I found Butterflies too twee for my liking, but the chorus to Look Back is superb. :wub: I like to see stuff like this more than the odds. I keep saying it, but I only entered Tone to try and introduce her to new people and to show off a song I adore. Final odds from BetVia: Ashton: Tone Damli - Look Back - 2/1 ^_^ Updated odds from BETidas: 3/1 Ashton : Tone Damli - Look back ^_^ Mixed odds for me so far varying from 10/1 - 70/1 :lol:, I would quite happily put some money on myself at AshBet and Aquafina's betting shops right now though. :P SéyetBet: Ashton - Tone Damli - Look back 2/1 Ashton's to lose at this point, they definitely seem to be gaining momentum. It'd be a huge shock for me if it was anyone other than the top 4 though. From my point of view, I think your entry doesn't have wide enough appeal to win but you are in for a good chance at a top10. Also ^_^ The momentum the songs getting outside of BJSC is AMAZING to see, in here it's slightly terrifying as I really don't want to be tarred with the Overhyped brush like I was in XII (Even though it was only the old guard big 3 of me, Tyron and Rich that supported it) Updated odds from Synbrokes: 2/1 (Ashton) Tone Damli - Look Back^_^ This has to be easily the best odds Ashton has ever gotten! With the highest being a 3/1 the average is going to be insane and below what our previous lowest odd have been. I think the 1/1-3/1 might produce the lowest average odd BJSC has seen post-veto.
February 5, 201213 yr This has to be easily the best odds Ashton has ever gotten! With the highest being a 3/1 the average is going to be insane and below what our previous lowest odd have been. I think the 1/1-3/1 might produce the lowest average odd BJSC has seen post-veto. You got 2/1 from BetVia. Should we just announce the winner now? :D
February 5, 201213 yr You got 2/1 from BetVia. Should we just announce the winner now? :D Highest meaning longest/less likely. So 3/1 is correct :P 2/1 is more likely.
February 5, 201213 yr You got 2/1 from BetVia. Should we just announce the winner now? :D Only BETidas have odds of more than 2/1 :o and Aquafina have us at Evens with RontBet and AshBet both at 3/2, all shorter than the three 2/1's. As Liam said I was meaning longest. If we're crowning me victorious now, I'd quite like the same amount of points THE SANDÉN got please :kink:
February 5, 201213 yr Highest meaning longest/less likely. So 3/1 is correct :P 2/1 is more likely. Urgh!!! My knowledge of betting odds letting me down right there. :(
February 5, 201213 yr For the first time ever Ashton's leading, and state owned, bookies have released a revised set of odds! Latest odds to win from AshBet: Ashton - Tone Damli - Look Back || 1/3 FSR Rontvia - Prance Faris - Flares || 3/1 Ramrynia - Carly Rae Jepsen - Call me maybe || 4/1 ---- Fljótavík - Foxes - Youth || 7/1 Syndare - SoSo - Who's gonna love me || 8/1 Numayania - The Storm - My crown || 10/1 Tinnmark - Andremo feat. Coco - Music is turning me on || 12/1 Unovia - Dia Frampton - Billy the Kid || 12/1 Botanikka - Ria Ritchie - Only one || 15/1 FYR Vojvodina-On-The-Wold - Le Kid - Human behaviour || 18/1 Scherzland - Vox Halo feat. LaDolla - Criminal || 20/1 Greenfroze - Belanova - Mariposas || 25/1 Caerfyrddia – Marigold – You and I know || 25/1 Kluminican Republic - Paulina Rubio - Heat of the night || 28/1 Mdiče - MNDR - #1 in heaven || 30/1 Séyetana - Nightwish - Turn loose the mermaids || 30/1 Allecian - Mercedes and I - Wintersnow || 33/1 Kopečka - Lena Philipsson - Live tomorrow (Sthlm Mix) || 33/1 Espen - Moa Lignell - When I held ya || 33/1 Hendinia - DJ Tatana feat Natalia Kills - You can't get in my head (if you don't get in my bed) || 35/1 Budtar – Marvin Priest feat. Wynter Gordon – Take me away || 35/1 Sangria - Moonlight Breakfast - Still || 35/1 Bignia-Zaragovina - Britt Daley - One and only || 45/1 B.a.N.G - Lydia Caesar - Lottery || 45/1 Batidas - Studio Killers - Ode to the bouncer || 50/1 Lievant - Mullyhaus feat. Little Neve White & The Snoopy Lads - Liar liar || 55/1 Hogan-Burg Republic - Emily Osment - All the way up || 60/1 N-Lazone - Ian Carey & Rosette feat. Timbaland & Brasco - Amnesia || 75/1 ChrIseland - Donkeyboy - City boy || 100/1 Daehun – moumoon – Sunshine girl || 150/1 Kylienips - School of Seven Bells - The night || 250/1 ---- The Federal Republic of Ashton to gain more than 200 points || 3/1 FSR Rontvia to gain Ashton's 12 points || EVENS Botanikka and Ashton to exchange points || 2/1 The XLI winner being a debut winner || 25/1 Scherzland to throw a fit in the event of a poor finish, once more thinking their song is the equal of Call Me Maybe, Look Back and Flares || 1/15,000 Mdice to award Ashton points || 200/1 FSR Ashvackia to all exchange points || 3/1 Some have stayed the same, but a flurry of bets from oversea's have prompted a tweaking in the odds. Also, some special odds.
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