No need to apologise! No offence taken, and I'm glad that you like a lot of my choices! But I've noticed comments in the past (not from you!) that seem to suggest that a lot of my entries do well because of my popularity on Buzzjack. I don't see why that should transfer over to a song contest but who knows how other people vote? All I know is that I personally vote for my 10 favourite songs each month, regardless of who is sending them.

 

What about Syndare? I'd be surprised to see them miss the top three :o

I'm pretty sure that I will be one of the people that you think has said this, as I've made comments about FSR Rontvia's popularity in the past, but I haven't meant it to come out in a way about your popularity yourself on the site, but more than now Rontvia are this 'notorious Top 10' finisher, people are more interested to hear your entries.

I'm pretty sure that I will be one of the people that you think has said this, as I've made comments about FSR Rontvia's popularity in the past, but I haven't meant it to come out in a way about your popularity yourself on the site, but more than now Rontvia are this 'notorious Top 10' finisher, people are more interested to hear your entries.

 

I can see why people might go to listen to my entries first, based on this 'regular top 10 finisher' status. However this does add a huge amount of pressure, it's almost as if I'm expected to be coming up with some incredible, inspired song every month that will appeal to everybody :lol: If only! Ria and Britanny McDonald proved that even I like to indulge in some generic female pop sometimes, even if it didn't do my diversity much good. I always get called out on it if I send something generic but they were genuinely my favourite non-charting songs at the time!

 

But certainly Kopecka, Ashton and Numayania and more recently Batidas, Espen and Caerfyrddia's entries are usually the first ones I listen to each month, purely based on past form. Not that that means that they're any more or less likely to get points from me that month just because of I've listened to them first! Sometimes I'll think 'oh...was that it', whilst others I'll think 'my God, they've done it again! :wub:' I rate each song out of 10 as I go along anyway so the order that I listen to them is irrelevant.

I can see why people might go to listen to my entries first, based on this 'regular top 10 finisher' status. However this does add a huge amount of pressure, it's almost as if I'm expected to be coming up with some incredible, inspired song every month that will appeal to everybody :lol: If only! Ria and Britanny McDonald proved that even I like to indulge in some generic female pop sometimes, even if it didn't do my diversity much good. I always get called out on it if I send something generic but they were genuinely my favourite non-charting songs at the time!

Yeah, I'm not saying anything bad about how you choose your songs, and saying you don't deserve success - I was just saying they were more my thoughts on things, opposed to people voting for you because of you being Gooddelta. :P

Tbh I was one of them people who thought a lot of people voted for Rich because of his status in BJSC but was proven wrong when Adaline (?) didn't finish as successful as people predicted.

Everyone thought I used to give Rich 12's constantly because it was Rich and we had some form of voting alliance thing, but I genuinely love those tracks. 2011 has proven that Rich get's it on merit alone as that was the single worst year for points from Ashton to Rontvia.

 

 

 

I am LOVING those odds and being top of them. That is very lovely to see. I personally expected Tone to do rather well, but winning would be exceeding my expectations. I would love a top5, and like Rich said that's where Butterflies :wub: made got to (Although there was some shock indie fans) and not as many pop fans. I'd like to be able to say I'm a cert for top5, but I've entered so many tracks in the past I thought would sail into the top 10 then either DNQ'd (Nevio/Cilmi :cry: - Although I agree with TiP, have that qualified it'd have done very well) or flopped into the 20's hence the era of flop for Ashton. Although, now looking back I can see a quality increase starting in the middle of my DNQ streak and feel more deserving of last years success.

Tbh I was one of them people who thought a lot of people voted for Rich because of his status in BJSC but was proven wrong when Adaline (?) didn't finish as successful as people predicted.

 

Indeed, it's one thing to attract good odds based on past performance - I guess I tend to subconsciously bump up the likes of Mdice and Batidas based on past form regardless of what they send - but converting those predictions into results is an altogether more difficult task! Adaline probably WAS getting blanket top ten predictions last month because everyone always expects me to finish top ten but in the end odds mean nothing if people don't actually care for the song when it comes down to the voting!

Everyone thought I used to give Rich 12's constantly because it was Rich and we had some form of voting alliance thing, but I genuinely love those tracks. 2011 has proven that Rich get's it on merit alone as that was the single worst year for points from Ashton to Rontvia.

 

FSR Ashvia fell apart a bit in 2011, 2012 is where it gets back on track :P Admittedly though, I can see why you didn't like some of my entries last year - whereas in 2010 my entries would have generally appealed to the same people each time, in 2011 I was changing things up nearly every month genre wise and it would have been nigh on impossible for anybody to love all ten and I wouldn't have expected anyone to.

 

I actually liked most of your entries in 2011, it was only Electric and Every Time (You Look At Me) which didn't get any support from me - most of the others got 6's and 7's although a couple got 1 or 2 points I think...Look Back is my favourite entry of yours since Forget Your Name I think, which you'll recall got my full 18 points!

I think the more victories and the more experience you have with BJSC the more hype you have around your name as Rich says when songs are released you jump and look at nations that have intrested you in the past.

^ That and in general the countries whom you vote for most, some people tend to jump and listen to their tracks first.

 

I admit for example I tend to listen to the likes of Numayania, Séyetana, Unovia, Ramrynia, Kluminican Republic first because I have a tendency to like their entries quite often. That doesn't mean I'll like their all their entries though, as people will see this time round ;)

41st contest bitches :funky:

 

Ashton, Kopecka, Kylienips & FSR Rontvia have all never missed a contest :wub: We're the proper old guard.

Well done for so effortlessly alienating the others.

I always listen to the songs in the order they are listed on voting page. Doesn't matter if I've loved dozens of your entries in the past you're still last if you are listed last.

I just put them all onto my iPod and listen to them in whichever order they come up on there. If the host hasn't tagged/numbered the MP3's in line with the draw then that usually means that I listen to them by alphabetical order of the artist names by default.

 

It's only occasionally that I purposefully go to listen to certain countries entries first, a lot of the time I've already heard the songs that they're sending before anyway :lol: None of the six countries that I listed earlier have sent a song this month that I didn't already know before confirmation opened.

41st contest bitches :funky:

 

Ashton, Kopecka, Kylienips & FSR Rontvia have all never missed a contest :wub: We're the proper old guard.

 

Although judging from their form in 2011, Kylienips does look out of place. The others made up the top 3 most successful nations of 2011. :o

Ojnoj knocked me down to 4th right at the end.

 

 

Kylienips have always done worse than us three, oddly enough. Even when Ashton hit a slump we were still riding high in the overall rankings.

BJSC XLI Average Odds

 

Here we go then! I have averaged out the 9 sets of odds given (and rounded to the nearest whole number - so if a country is higher than another, they do have better odds but have been rounded for the sake of being more "odds-like") - any odds that were updated afterwards were the odds that were used and not the originals. Also, in one case - the odds to win have been used, and not the odds to qualify.Finally, I have split them into the 2 semi finals, so we can see who the odds predict to qualify. Remember the odds are to win the final and not each semi.

 

Here are the overall BJSC odds at the moment...

 

Semi Final 1 Entrants (Average odds to win the final)

01. 5/1 - Numayania

02. 6/1 - Ashton

03. 12/1 - ChrIseland

04. 14/1 - Unovia

05. 16/1 - Batidas

06. 17/1 - Allecian

07. 19/1 - Daehun

08. 19/1 - Aquafina

09. 21/1 - Hendinia

10. 22/1 - Botanikka

11. 22/1 - Isconia

12. 24/1 - N-Lazone

13. 25/1 - B.a.N.G

14. 27/1 - Budtar

15. 29/1 - Tinnmark

-----------------------------------------------------

16. 31/1 - Sangria

17. 31/1 - Juranabaijan

18. 32/1 - Republic of Sass *

19. 37/1 - Hogan-Burg Republic

20. 37/1 - Dalisska

21. 39/1 - People's Republic of Jester *

22. 45/1 - Armenijain

23. 109/1 - Eledan

 

Semi Final 2 Entrants (Average odds to win the final)

01. 3/1 - Ramrynia

02. 5/1 - Syndare

03. 5/1 - FSR Rontvia

04. 8/1 - Fljotavik

05. 13/1 - Mdice

06. 13/1 - FYR Vojvodina-on-the-Wold

07. 14/1 - Kopecka

08. 17/1 - Kluminican Republic

09. 19/1 - Seyetana

10. 23/1 - Ojnoj

11. 24/1 - Espen

12. 24/1 - Bignia-Zaragovina

13. 24/1 - Scherzland

14. 29/1 - Danaelanda

15. 30/1 - Kylienips

------------------------------------------------------

16. 31/1 - Lievant

17. 33/1 - Caerfyrddia

18. 33/1 - Farahtyn

19. 35/1 - Persephonia *

20. 36/1 - UnoShake

21. 44/1 - Zechonia

22. 45/1 - New Caprica

23. 65/1 - Usfland

 

In semi final 1, one set of odds had Eledan down at 1150/1, I changed this to 115/1 to avoid an average which would have been extremely high due to this.

 

In terms of overall odds, 6 countries seem to be pulling out in front, these being Ramrynia, Numayania, Syndare, FSR Rontvia, Ashton and Fljotavik. Will one of these be the ultimate winner, or will there be a surprise in store?

 

* Also, the 3 countries that have yet to vote are all in the bottom 8 of their respective semi finals. And will any surprise countries qualify? And can Eledan spring the biggest surprise in BJSC history?

 

Hope you find it interesting, and are you surprised by anyone's average odds? Also so far Greenfroze have average odds to win the final of 34/1.

Edited February 4, 201213 yr by Ryan741

14/1 - not bad... People seem to be upping their expectations for Dia though so pressure is on :P

I hope I qualify.

OMG OMG OMG :w00t:

 

Of course odds for PRoJ and Persephonia will need revising now...

I think I'll get through, but I agree that I have like no likeliness of winning. :P