There's two more years left. That's a lot of time for the UKIP to gain momentum, especially when a lot of disillusioned Tory supporters are supporting the UKIP at the moment. When it is shown that the Tories and their economic policies haven't worked, the UKIP will get a lot more popular. The Liberal Democrats have a possible chance of dropping out though.

There's also two years for the major parties (not a phrase I intend on ever giving to UKIP) to perform a hatchet job on them and expose some of their ridiculous policies. One mention of a flat income tax rate and disillusioned Labour voters will run away screaming, and ultimately the disillusioned Tories will come home. Shit sticks together and all that.

There's two more years left. That's a lot of time for the UKIP to gain momentum, especially when a lot of disillusioned Tory supporters are supporting the UKIP at the moment. When it is shown that the Tories and their economic policies haven't worked, the UKIP will get a lot more popular. The Liberal Democrats have a possible chance of dropping out though.

All of this totally ignores that despite the economy hitting the buffers and everything going wrong that has been predicted to go wrong, the Tories have been stable at 30% or more in the polls for the last two years. They even managed to get 31% of the vote at their worst ever performance in a modern election in 1997. They're never, ever going to do much worse than that - there are too many people loyal to the Conservatives as natural Conservative voters who will always vote for them, come what may. Labour could potentially be replaced in the top two parties (they've come close enough times in the past), but the Conservatives never will, let alone falling out of the top three parties. People are happy to vote UKIP as a protest in a by-election, but when it comes to a general election most people realise several things:

 

- UKIP don't stand a chance in hell of winning in their seat

- UKIP would be absolutely disastrous at governing, so vague and unworkable are the vast majority of their policies. UKIP are an anguished scream at the political system - they aren't a party of government.

- The best way they could ever go about getting a more UKIP agenda would be by voting Conservative, not voting UKIP, as UKIP will never, ever, ever be a party of government. Ever.

 

I would happily bet a thousand pounds on UKIP not getting more than 15% at the next general election. By-election embarrassments and winning the European Parliament elections are the absolute limit of UKIP's aspirations.

Before they dumped Iain Duncan Smith there was a real policy that the Tories could have got fewer votes (although more seats) than the Lib Dems at the 2005 election.

I wouldn't say that by-election embarrassments and winning the European Parliament elections are the limit of achievements for the UKIP. You hear that the UKIP have gained a decent amount of momentum when the subject of politics comes up most of the time and it does seem as if they are going to pull out a shock soon enough.

 

But we'll see, although I wouldn't be surprised at all if I was right.

I certainly would. A borderline racist right wing band of eurosceptic nut jobs will not become the second party in this country, the conservative vote will never collapse by anywhere near much as would be required.

I certainly would. A borderline racist right wing band of eurosceptic nut jobs will not become the second party in this country, the conservative vote will never collapse by anywhere near much as would be required.

 

I don't know. A lot of people are more stupid than you would generally think...

There is absolutely nothing to evidence the case for UKIP becoming a major party. The Lib Dems were frequently said to 'have momentum' - a fat lot of good it did them in 2005 and 2010, when in the former they gained 11 seats and in the latter they lost 5 seats despite having Cleggmania overload. That was with a solid political organisation, a foothold in party politics, recognition, and a well-known strategy of pavement politics which has worked for decades.

 

UKIP have nothing except a bit of excitement and a receptacle for protest votes - a poll after Eastleigh found 75% of the people who'd voted for UKIP there had no plans to vote for them at the general election. They understood the difference between a by-election and a general election, and that a vote for UKIP has no consequences at a by-election. Generally, people aren't all that stupid when it comes to realising who's the most competent to run the country...

I think the Tories have a good chance of being re-elected, even if the polling isn't looking good for them right now. And while I do think that Labour will always be a better option in comparison, I don't think it'd be completely disastrous if they were re-elected.

UKIP's fortunes depend in part on whether their policies come under more scrutiny. At the moment most people can name one UKIP policy and that is it. Similarly, there was a time when people only knew one Lib Dem policy - a change in the voting system. Byelection successes meant their other policies were explored and some of the more loopy or idealistic policies were steadily dropped.

 

UKIP policies may receive more scrutiny now or it may not happen until they actually win a parliamentary byelection. If there is a byelection in a Tory seat where Labour are nowhere (i.e. the type of seats the Lib Dems used to win under the last Tory government) then UKIP could still win.

 

Of course, even if people know more UKIP policies, they may still vote for them in a byelection despite disagreeing with them on mmany issues. After all, research after Lib Dem byelection successes showed that many people voted for them despite completely disagreeing with their stance on the EU.

Chris Huhne and his wife have been jailed for eight months for perverting the court of justice.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21737627