Even up until this week, despite all the scandals and terrible things he came out with, I still thought that despite all the odds, Donald Trump would still clinch the presidency. But no-one comes back from being labelled a sex-crazed octopus.

Just out of curiosity, why did you think that he'd realistically win the presidency? He's never been ahead in the polling average, except for a brief tie a couple of times. The demographics of the electorate were always against him too. He was never going to win by doing worse than Romney amongst African-Americans, Latinx, and women in general. He still has a greater than zero chance of winning, but that would depend on a sharp decline in minority turnout and a sharp increase in turnout amongst white men without higher education.

Just out of curiosity, why did you think that he'd realistically win the presidency? He's never been ahead in the polling average, except for a brief tie a couple of times. The demographics of the electorate were always against him too. He was never going to win by doing worse than Romney amongst African-Americans, Latinx, and women in general. He still has a greater than zero chance of winning, but that would depend on a sharp decline in minority turnout and a sharp increase in turnout amongst white men without higher education.

After the last general election and the EU referendum, a lot of us are a bit cynical when it comes to opinion polls at the moment.

I am starting to feel a little bit more relieved. In fact I'm daring to hope his carcrash continues such that the annihilation will be hilarious to witness. We could use something like that.

 

Absolutely!

Just out of curiosity, why did you think that he'd realistically win the presidency? He's never been ahead in the polling average, except for a brief tie a couple of times. The demographics of the electorate were always against him too. He was never going to win by doing worse than Romney amongst African-Americans, Latinx, and women in general. He still has a greater than zero chance of winning, but that would depend on a sharp decline in minority turnout and a sharp increase in turnout amongst white men without higher education.

 

A number of factors -

- a distrust of opinion polls

- a belief that a lot of the undecided and 3rd party voters in said polls would switch their allegiance to Trump come election day

- a belief that many people who voted Democrat in the last election who aren't as enthused by Hilary simply won't turn out to vote come election day, handing Trump an advantage

- a feeling that Trump would perform better against Hilary in the debates, given how he made every other Republican in the primaries drop like flies when he debated them

- the fact that every single negative thing he said or was said about him, despite condemnation, did nothing to stop his stock rising

- a feeling that hitherto under-reported or undiscovered revelations surrounding Hilary emerging, either relating to her email server or to Bill Clinton, would make her even more unpopular among American voters than Trump, which would hand him the win.

- after the last few years, some people just want to watch the world burn.

 

It wasn't until the video was released at the weekend that I thought that maybe he'd finally been permanently derailed, but it was the remark that he "groped a woman like an octopus" that was the final nail in the coffin. People will have that visual image of Trump in their head when they enter the polling booth, and no-one wants a slimy mollusk as president.

 

After the last general election and the EU referendum, a lot of us are a bit cynical when it comes to opinion polls at the moment.

 

Ooh, does that mean I can post "the video"?

 

The video doesn't really apply to your distrust of polls though - almost always without fail, the voting intention question comes first in polling, precisely so it *doesn't* lead to the outcome of priming. Ironically, priming actually gave a better indication for the end result in the general election - people said they'd vote Labour, but in the later questions on preferred PM and best party on the economy consistently said they preferred David Cameron as Prime Minister and the Tories on the economy.

 

(Also the polls didn't call the EU referendum wrong - most had the final result within their margin of error. Most predictions that Remain would win were predicated on the assumption that undecideds would break for the status quo of the EU.)

- a belief that a lot of the undecided and 3rd party voters in said polls would switch their allegiance to Trump come election day

- a feeling that Trump would perform better against Hilary in the debates, given how he made every other Republican in the primaries drop like flies when he debated them

- the fact that every single negative thing he said or was said about him, despite condemnation, did nothing to stop his stock rising

These were only really true when he was fighting to win a selectorate composed of among 20% of the worst people in the United States though. And how many Jill Stein voters were realistically going to go Trump?

The video doesn't really apply to your distrust of polls though - almost always without fail, the voting intention question comes first in polling, precisely so it *doesn't* lead to the outcome of priming. Ironically, priming actually gave a better indication for the end result in the general election - people said they'd vote Labour, but in the later questions on preferred PM and best party on the economy consistently said they preferred David Cameron as Prime Minister and the Tories on the economy.

 

(Also the polls didn't call the EU referendum wrong - most had the final result within their margin of error. Most predictions that Remain would win were predicated on the assumption that undecideds would break for the status quo of the EU.)

Who cares whether it applies or not? Posting Yes Minister clips is almost always justified.

These were only really true when he was fighting to win a selectorate composed of among 20% of the worst people in the United States though. And how many Jill Stein voters were realistically going to go Trump?

 

Jill Stein isn't the only 3rd party candidate (now that I think of it, it's a bit of a misnomer talking about more than one 3rd party, but please indulge me), it was more the Gary Johnson ones that I believed were up for grabs, given that it seems as if it's more pee'd off Republicans that have been parking their support with the Libertarians thanks to Trump. Possibly some Evan McMullin ones too.

Has anyone seen this yet?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I cannot wait for Michelle Obama to rise to power. Truly exceptional woman.

Jill Stein isn't the only 3rd party candidate (now that I think of it, it's a bit of a misnomer talking about more than one 3rd party, but please indulge me), it was more the Gary Johnson ones that I believed were up for grabs, given that it seems as if it's more pee'd off Republicans that have been parking their support with the Libertarians thanks to Trump. Possibly some Evan McMullin ones too.

Evan is supposedly splitting the Republican vote in Utah to such an extent that they think it could go Democrat.

yeah, there's virtually a four-way race in utah rn. the fact that it's anything other than dark red on 538 right now is WILD.

62% Mormon population ain't too enthused by Trump. They really loved Romney.

After the last general election and the EU referendum, a lot of us are a bit cynical when it comes to opinion polls at the moment.

I understand the sentiment, but Brexit polls were well within in the margin of error, and wasn't the final result only with 0.5 a percentage point? Clinton is currently 6+ points ahead nationally, and if she's several points ahead in the polls on election days, that's basically a guarantee she'd win. I also want to point that the UK electorate is only 6% non-white, while the US electorate is about 30% non-white, women also vote at a higher rate than men do. The demographics just aren't in Trump's favor. He may have a large rabid base, but outside of that, he's just not popular.

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by bluesunstorm

Has anyone seen this yet?

I cannot wait for Michelle Obama to rise to power. Truly exceptional woman.

Powerful stuff. She controlled her obvious anger very well!

According to former Secret Service agents who know her much better than any of us does, Michelle's not very nice at all, stuck-up and looks down on many people and that included her bodyguards. Obama is nicer and was much more polite to them apparently. They've written a book about former first families. Hillary's not very nice at all they say but Bill is okay. None of them wanted to be assigned to Hillary!

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by Common Sense

I understand the sentiment, but Brexit polls were well within in the margin of error, and wasn't the final result only with 0.5 a percentage point? Clinton is currently 6+ points ahead nationally, and if she's several points ahead in the polls on election days, that's basically a guarantee she'd win. I also want to point that the UK electorate is only 6% non-white, while the US electorate is about 30% non-white, women also vote at a higher rate than men do. The demographics just aren't in Trump's favor. He may have a large rabid base, but outside of that, he's just not popular.

 

And before - 40% are voting early like now.

According to former Secret Service agents who know her much better than any of us does, Michelle's not very nice at all, stuck-up and looks down on many people and that included her bodyguards. Obama is nicer and was much more polite to them apparently. They've written a book about former first families. Hillary's not very nice at all they say but Bill is okay. None of them wanted to be assigned to Hillary!

Or maybe macho men have a major issue with powerful women but not powerful men they can banter with lads stuff and want to sell some books...

According to former Secret Service agents who know her much better than any of us does, Michelle's not very nice at all, stuck-up and looks down on many people and that included her bodyguards. Obama is nicer and was much more polite to them apparently. They've written a book about former first families. Hillary's not very nice at all they say but Bill is okay. None of them wanted to be assigned to Hillary!

 

These bitter, straws clutching comments by Trump supporters after the speech have been making my day :')

 

Michelle's speech was absolutely stunning and probably the best thing about this whole dire campaign, I really hope that's the final nail in the coffin for Trump's chances.

Edited October 15, 20168 yr by Chez Wombat

Oh no Michelle Obama isn't very nice to her bodyguards guess I'll vote for the rapist!!!!

I have to say, my respect for Mormons as a whole has gone up a lot this election. The evangelicals still backing Trump? Beneath contempt.