His approval rating is miles better than Ed's is. That isn't an achievement though as Cameron has a higher approval rating than Ed in Scotland. Last I saw both were in the -40's a world away from our Nic.

His approval rating is miles better than Ed's is. That isn't an achievement though as Cameron has a higher approval rating than Ed in Scotland. Last I saw both were in the -40's a world away from our Nic.

 

But I meant his approval rating is similar to what Miliband's was in late 2010 when he was just a month in to his leadership (in the UK as a whole, I don't know about Scotland specifically). Typically most leaders poll well at first because people give them the benefit of the doubt, then it's all downhill from there...

Edited January 22, 201510 yr by Danny

One thing's for sure, with 11 deposits lost in the past few years (more than the SDP when that was disbanded!) there is absolutely zero chance of the Liberal Democrats being in power come May 8th 2015.

One thing's for sure, with 11 deposits lost in the past few years (more than the SDP when that was disbanded!) there is absolutely zero chance of the Liberal Democrats being in power come May 8th 2015.

Technically, I think they will be. I can't see the new government being formed on the 8th which means the current government remains in power. Oh, and I don't think the SDP as a stand-alone party contested 11 by-elections.

absolute zero is quite hard to naturally achieve on a habitable zone world...

 

what if Labour falls a few seats short of a majority up against a frightening Tory UKIP coalition? I'm sure the Libdems could always do a deal with Labour to force a reduction in the student loans. Oh hang on, or is that Labour policy? Still at least they didn't introduce student fees. Oh hang on, did I dream that?

 

Oh it's not FEES, it's a tax on future earnings (if they do well in life). bast*rds, hitting the future comfortably well-off.

 

 

Sorry, I couldn't resist the baiting....it's a failing.

 

 

Now who is the pedant Simon!! :P

 

It will be interesting to see if the Liberal Democrats are completely wiped out in Scotland as the polls suggest at the moment, I don't think it'll be quite that bad - they may hang on to 1 seat.

Now who is the pedant Simon!! :P

 

It will be interesting to see if the Liberal Democrats are completely wiped out in Scotland as the polls suggest at the moment, I don't think it'll be quite that bad - they may hang on to 1 seat.

I think they'll keep the Northern Isles. I think all of their seats on the mainland will go to the SNP.

Now who is the pedant Simon!! :P

 

It will be interesting to see if the Liberal Democrats are completely wiped out in Scotland as the polls suggest at the moment, I don't think it'll be quite that bad - they may hang on to 1 seat.

I'm proud to be a pedant :cheer:

 

I think the Lib Dems are likely to keep the Western Isles and Orkney & Shetland. Charlie Kennedy should be OK as well. All the other seats are very vulnerable unless the SNP's support falls away.

LOL at the idea that the Lib Dems would be the ones forcing Labour to reduce the cap on tuition fees.

I'm proud to be a pedant :cheer:

 

I think the Lib Dems are likely to keep the Western Isles and Orkney & Shetland. Charlie Kennedy should be OK as well. All the other seats are very vulnerable unless the SNP's support falls away.

The last time Na h-Eileanan an lar (Western Isles) elected a LibDem MP was 1929. It's been SNP since 2005. (Also SNP from 1970 to 1987. With Labour having every election since 1935 not won by the SNP).

 

 

Charles Kennedy's seat is far from safe. The two Scottish seats that cover the area that Kennedy's London seat covers both went from LibDem strongholds to SNP strong holds in 2011. The SNP went from a distant 2nd to a safe 1st in both seats. Outside of the Northern Isles it's a pattern that repeated in every one of the former mainland constituency LibDem seats. In my area there was a 16.8% swing to the SNP in 2011.

 

The LibDem majority in the Northern Isles is over 51%, if the SNP can take that then who knows what will happen.

Soz Tirren. Ipos-Mori (or whatever the f*** their name is) has the SNP on 52% with Labour on 24% Tories on 12% and the LieDems and Greens on 4% each in their latest poll which is a bump of 1% for Labour since October and the SNP unchanged. Looks like the c**t in charge up here is making a super difference.

I know we're talking stats SNP style here, but one poll doesn't overturn a trend several others are showing, which is that the SNP lead is fading. I'll wait for a few more others showing no change before I throw in the towel.

 

In any case, it's interesting that the only poll to show no change is a telephone poll. There have been a few poll watchers who've speculated whether using Scottish or English callers would potentially make a difference, given the by-now very well documented social pressure the SNP/Yes campaigns were no stranger to.

Apropos of nothing, I really love how every party with a poll surge assumes theirs will be the first one immune to incumbency effects.

The last time Na h-Eileanan an lar (Western Isles) elected a LibDem MP was 1929. It's been SNP since 2005. (Also SNP from 1970 to 1987. With Labour having every election since 1935 not won by the SNP).

Charles Kennedy's seat is far from safe. The two Scottish seats that cover the area that Kennedy's London seat covers both went from LibDem strongholds to SNP strong holds in 2011. The SNP went from a distant 2nd to a safe 1st in both seats. Outside of the Northern Isles it's a pattern that repeated in every one of the former mainland constituency LibDem seats. In my area there was a 16.8% swing to the SNP in 2011.

 

The LibDem majority in the Northern Isles is over 51%, if the SNP can take that then who knows what will happen.

Oops, my mistake :ph34r:

 

Charles Kennedy has been predicted to lose his seat many times since he won it in 1983 and he has generally held it comfortably. It's a question of whether his personal vote (and the fact that he spoke against forming a coalition with the Tories) will help him keep it this time.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/...-think-they-are

 

Waiting for Danny to claim that this article backs him up entirely.

In any case, it's interesting that the only poll to show no change is a telephone poll. There have been a few poll watchers who've speculated whether using Scottish or English callers would potentially make a difference, given the by-now very well documented social pressure the SNP/Yes campaigns were no stranger to.

SNP/Yes campaigners would of course claim the reverse! Pressure came from both directions but for my generation I think it was definitely the Yes side who pressured the most. Do you have links to this documentation?

SNP/Yes campaigners would of course claim the reverse! Pressure came from both directions but for my generation I think it was definitely the Yes side who pressured the most. Do you have links to this documentation?

Obviously there's pressure from both directions in *any* campaign, but in terms of outright personal intimidation and abuse on the Yes campaign's part the testimonies were countless - like, to the degree where I literally don't even know where to link first - probably this poll towards the end.

 

I'm genuinely surprised you're asking for documentation here - the coverage of it was *everywhere* in the last month of the campaign, and the huge imbalance in terms of campaign materials and pressure from Yes supporters was credited as a pretty big potential reason for the 'Shy No' factor in the polls (ICM and Politicalbetting talked it over a lot towards the last week and after).

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/...-think-they-are

 

Waiting for Danny to claim that this article backs him up entirely.

 

:lol: The New Statesman have been even bigger relentless spinners of the "party line" than Labourlist of late.

 

Ed Miliband being willing to declare himself a "socialist" or "radical" from time to time does not exactly mean much to anything, when his actual economic policies are more right-wing than Blair's / more right-wing than 60% of the public. How exactly is his occasional speech about "responsible capitalism" supposed to offset the fact that Labour plan to further shrink the state and further heap misery on poor people?

Edited January 23, 201510 yr by Danny

:lol: The New Statesman have been even bigger relentless spinners of the "party line" than Labourlist of late.

 

Ed Miliband being willing to declare himself a "socialist" or "radical" from time to time does not exactly mean much to anything, when his actual economic policies are more right-wing than Blair's / more right-wing than 60% of the public. How exactly is his occasional speech about "responsible capitalism" supposed to offset the fact that Labour plan to further shrink the state and further heap misery on poor people?

A £30bn difference in spending cuts puts Labour miles closer to the Greens or the SNP than to the Tories on economic policy, yet you're still more willing to conflate them with the latter. By anyone's measure that's ridiculous.

A £30bn difference in spending cuts puts Labour miles closer to the Greens or the SNP than to the Tories on economic policy, yet you're still more willing to conflate them with the latter. By anyone's measure that's ridiculous.

 

Again, I really don't understand how it's so unreasonable/"radical" to simply ask that Labour just don't make things any worse than they already are. Not even make things drastically better - just don't make things worse than the already poor state public services / the safety net for the poor is already in. Yet they're not prepared to go even that far.

Oops, my mistake :ph34r:

 

Charles Kennedy has been predicted to lose his seat many times since he won it in 1983 and he has generally held it comfortably. It's a question of whether his personal vote (and the fact that he spoke against forming a coalition with the Tories) will help him keep it this time.

 

I would be personally hugely disappointed if Charles gets kicked out, one of the (very very) few political figures I have a lot of time for. A man of integrity and humour at a time when the rest were all bandwagon-jumping out of the frying pan into the fire with identikit policies...