Ashcroft always has the Tories ahead. Not by this much, but it's well within the margin of error of his usual gap.

From the Guardian:

 

The Conservatives lead Labour by 36 per cent to 30 per cent in this week’s Ashcroft National Poll, conducted over the past weekend. The Tories are up two points since last week and Labour are unchanged. The Liberal Democrats are down a point at nine per cent, Ukip down two at 11 per cent, the Greens up three at seven per cent and the SNP down two at four per cent. The Conservatives have now led in six of the last eight rounds, and this week’s finding equals the highest the party has yet recorded in the ANP – though the figures are within the margin of error of a much closer result.

 

The polls seem to be moving..

There've been a few random polls this campaign showing either Labour or the Tories 5 or 6 points ahead. I'd pay this one as much heed as the last few, especially with a three point bounce out of nowhere for the Greens.

Not surprised in the ANP the record of the SNP in government is being highlighted as a reason people are considering a vote for them at Westminster. After a term as a minority government and then 4/5ths of a term as a majority government they've successfully carried out the vast majority of their key pledges.

Ok, fair enough - I guess we are still at DEADLOCK.

The polls basically come down to how pumped up you think the less-likely-to-vote groups of Labour voters (mainly the very poor and young) are going to be. The pollsters which generally show Tory leads (ICM and ComRes) apply filters which down-weights people who didn't vote last time, while the pollsters which generally show Labour leads (YouGov and Populus) have most people expressing a preference taken into account regardless.

Edited April 27, 201510 yr by Danny

I think the Tories are in the lead now no matter what the polls say - I just have a feeling they'll get 295+ seats and Labour will get 265 or something - the marginal English constituencies will have been pushed to the blue side by the scare mongering of the establishment to the SNP, just like during the referendum!

I think the Tories are in the lead now no matter what the polls say - I just have a feeling they'll get 295+ seats and Labour will get 265 or something - the marginal English constituencies will have been pushed to the blue side by the scare mongering of the establishment to the SNP, just like during the referendum!

If that were happening, you'd have expected it to show up in more of the Ashcroft constituency polls recently - and Labour are still ahead in a lot of them. And Yes were never in the lead, so it wasn't really a case of independence only losing because of 'last-minute scare-mongering'.

Was the poll 10 days before the referendum that put it at the centre of the media news not showing yes ahead? That's why the Vow was produced and downing st released a daily threat from business leaders a bit like the Telegraph front pages during this campaign?

 

Anyway most polls I see have a Tory lead now - I just think the crossover has arrived although I hope against hope I'm wrong...

Project:Fear had been at top speed long before that Yes lead poll.

Indeed one of the things which disgusted me about the referendum and the sheep believed it and continued to live in fear and live their lives on their knees!

Edited April 27, 201510 yr by steve201

Was the poll 10 days before the referendum that put it at the centre of the media news not showing yes ahead? That's why the Vow was produced and downing st released a daily threat from business leaders a bit like the Telegraph front pages during this campaign?

 

Anyway most polls I see have a Tory lead now - I just think the crossover has arrived although I hope against hope I'm wrong...

One poll showed the Yes vote ahead. It is reasonable to assume that that poll was a rogue, so the Yes side were never ahead.

Was the poll 10 days before the referendum that put it at the centre of the media news not showing yes ahead? That's why the Vow was produced and downing st released a daily threat from business leaders a bit like the Telegraph front pages during this campaign?

 

Anyway most polls I see have a Tory lead now - I just think the crossover has arrived although I hope against hope I'm wrong...

There was one poll out of going on a hundred in that month leading up showing Yes in the lead. It's pretty safe to assume (given it wasn't replicated at all) that Yes were never in the lead, much as a statistically-illiterate Westminster went mad over it.

 

I should also add that The Vow basically played no part in the victory either - the British Election Study after found only about 3% of No voters (so about 1.5% of those voting) said it was the main reason they voted No. The 45 are trying to play this myth that Scotland only voted No because of The Vow and otherwise it was heading for independence, but there's literally nothing to substantiate it at all. The majority of the undecideds just weren't convinced by the sums for the plan for independence - as has since been borne out. Hope's nice and all, but it doesn't put food on the table.

There was one poll out of going on a hundred in that month leading up showing Yes in the lead. It's pretty safe to assume (given it wasn't replicated at all) that Yes were never in the lead, much as a statistically-illiterate Westminster went mad over it.

 

I should also add that The Vow basically played no part in the victory either - the British Election Study after found only about 3% of No voters (so about 1.5% of those voting) said it was the main reason they voted No. The 45 are trying to play this myth that Scotland only voted No because of The Vow and otherwise it was heading for independence, but there's literally nothing to substantiate it at all. The majority of the undecideds just weren't convinced by the sums for the plan for independence - as has since been borne out. Hope's nice and all, but it doesn't put food on the table.

 

Again, this is exactly the type of argument the Right always uses to defeat any "progressive" cause and get poor people to vote against their own self-interests.

Edited April 27, 201510 yr by Danny

Not really - most progressive causes *do* put food on the table!

TNS Scotland has SNP on 54% and 57 seats! *.*

Did anyone see the BBC1 Panorama last night, giving Nate Silver's predictions? He's the guy who correctly predicted the last two US elections and got every state correct. What a waste of 30 minutes and to think I postponed watching the second Corrie for that. :rolleyes: He told us nothing new and predicted that UKIP will only get 1 seat. Carswell will hold and looking like Farage will win too. I think Reckless will hold so that's three or surely a certain two?

It's probable that Farage will win but it's really not a certain two at all.

 

Nate's good for US predictions but his model for the UK in 2010 was wayyyy out, and he's basically piggybacking on Electionforecast.co.uk this time around.

It's a lot less complicated to predict a US Presidential election. For a start, you don't have to worry about tactical voting.

Full list of Scottish Candidates: http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/316781...ntary-election/

Can I ask a English politics question - why do the Tories and lib dems dominate the south west?