With Labour's poll numbers, if SNP hadn't risen a few years ago and Labour still polled its usual in Scotland, it would be neck and neck with the Tories, or, as Unionists wouldn't have rallied round the Tories, maybe even ahead.

 

In 2015 I'm fairly sure Ed Milliband was tracking the Conservatives, I think a lot of people thought Labour might actually run with a minority government.

 

This is a great read: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/05/20/new-p...dge/#more-21610

 

Kinda sad in a way, but Labour are lose a lot of traditionally safe Labour seats which is just awful. The manifesto has some great ideas but the practicalities are from cuckoo land.

Well, well, well, I was right again!!

 

Labour won't win but 34-5% is an absolute RESULT and shows how popular Corbyn's ideas are even aftwr the undemocratic brainwashing SAVAGE attacks of our non-independent disgusting press.

35% in one poll is not 35%. We're going to be lucky to get over 27% after the next two weeks.

Edited May 21, 20178 yr by Qassändra

LOL, Labour Uncut has been predicting a Labour apocalypse everyday for years. I know for a fact that those supposed "canvass returns" in that article are bollocks because the feeling here is that Chester is a much more likely Labour hold than some of the traditionally "safer" seats round here.

 

Interestingly, fox-hunting really seems to be doing a lot of damage to the Tories round here; I get the sense it's sort of punctured the image of Theresa May being more of a down-to-earth woman of the people rather than a "typical posh Tory". Plus the Labour manifesto has excited some people in a good way, including some Brexit voters. That said, I would guess the lead would widen again if the Tories shift the focus back onto Brexit, because there really is an underlying sense that the country would be better in negotiations with a Prime Minister who has a "strong hand" with a big majority, and no doubt Blair and Mandelson won't be able to resist sticking their oars in again with more nonsense that reverses the tentative LabourLeave gains that have been made in recent weeks.

Edited May 21, 20178 yr by Danny

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 43% (-5)

LAB: 34% (+4)

LDEM: 8% (-)

UKIP: 4% (-)

 

(via @Survation / 19 - 20 May)

Phone method.

 

Err because the pound has fallen that much and it will eventually filter through anyway. There is the added risk that it may fall further if we get a rubbish deal with no-one to buy our goods (there's an instant 10% extra cost, plus an extra 10% for all goods from the Eu imported). So, 20% is a fairly reasonable estimate. It could be as low as 10% if we get a good deal and the pound recovers, or as bad as runaway inflation if we get totally f***ed by it. Im guessing somewhere in between.

 

Don't forget that the EU imports more from us than we do from them, so they would be hurting themselves more than us if there was a tariff 'war'.

 

 

With Labour's poll numbers, if SNP hadn't risen a few years ago and Labour still polled its usual in Scotland, it would be neck and neck with the Tories, or, as Unionists wouldn't have rallied round the Tories, maybe even ahead.

 

Actually it would make little difference - as long as the Tories win more than 326 seats, it makes little difference how the remaining ones are distributed between various opposition parties.

 

If Labour repeats this result in another week, then it will be neck and neck!!

 

Great result.

Don't forget that the EU imports more from us than we do from them, so they would be hurting themselves more than us if there was a tariff 'war'

No they wouldn't. This is where relative sizes matter. The EU single market is the largest economy in the world. Leaving it has a larger impact on the UK because as a percentage of the overall market size or trade with the EU is much much much larger than their trade with us.

 

I know on raw number of euros they do export more to us (about 15bn I think) but the remaining stump of the EU when taken collectively is still about 5 times bigger than we are

If Labour repeats this result in another week, then it will be neck and neck!!

 

Great result.

 

That's a very big 'if' - ISTM the Tories have made sure to get their most contentious policy out early -

 

I suspect that there will be several faux pas by Labour to come in the next couple of weeks, that'll will at least negate the 'Dementia Tax' issue.

 

That's a very big 'if' - ISTM the Tories have made sure to get their most contentious policy out early -

 

I suspect that there will be several faux pas by Labour to come in the next couple of weeks, that'll will at least negate the 'Dementia Tax' issue.

Rather than the string of Tory cock-ups that have been swept under the carpet.

Don't forget that the EU imports more from us than we do from them, so they would be hurting themselves more than us if there was a tariff 'war'.

Currency rates aren't a tariff war.

That's a very big 'if' - ISTM the Tories have made sure to get their most contentious policy out early -

 

I suspect that there will be several faux pas by Labour to come in the next couple of weeks, that'll will at least negate the 'Dementia Tax' issue.

 

it doesn;t only harm those suffering from dementia - an awful tragedy and source of huge misery and grief and loss to those who have to come to terms with the fact that are going to slowly die with no dignity over a prolonged period, and their family who have to watch them slowly die and disappear day by day while trying to support them, the people they most want to leave something to (about the same as an MP's annual income is now the limit) - but it will also hit the next generations who quite obviously need a helping hand to get a mortgage or remove debt. Except the rich ones who don't use the NHS.

 

Still, if anyone thinks that is all fine and dandy, I expect there is no point discussing the issue as they will vote Tory even if they brought in compulsory euthanasia at 60. Followed by a completely privatised NHS where everyone is forced to pay for their own care, cancer, heart attack, broekn bones whatever. It's just the next step in that long-term aim.

The Tory campaign has plunged into chaos after May was forced into a humiliating u-turn over their social care policy and lied about it at a press conference. That is the way the story will definitely not be reported in most of the press tomorrow. OTOH, if another party adjusted a policy even slightly, that's exactly how it would be reported.

Rather than the string of Tory cock-ups that have been swept under the carpet.

 

If they've been swept under the carpet, how do you know about them? :rolleyes:

If they've been swept under the carpet, how do you know about them? :rolleyes:

They had to be visible briefly before they were swept under the carpet. You know as well as I do that Boris Johnson's lies, Philip Hammond's floundering etc. have barely been mentioned when compared with Dianne Abbott's hapless performance. It's a pretty safe bet that Theresa May's lies and massive u-turn will also be reported rather differently in the Tory press.

I agree Suedhead but I don't think this one will be swept under the carpet - she's the first party leader to go against her manifesto promise before being in government lol!

 

Not that it'll change the election result, the turkeys will still vote for xmas!

WELSH Westminster voting intention:

 

LAB: 44% (+9)

CON: 34% (-7)

PC: 9% (-2)

LDEM: 6% (-1)

UKIP: 5% (+1)

 

(via @YouGov / 18 - 21 May)

Some interesting polls tonight, but I'm not entirely confident in them translating into results come 8th June and I think Manchester has reset the election anyway.

Some of the most recent polls this evening have seen the Conservatives' lead over Labour cut to 5%, which is the closest it has been since around June last year.

 

Ironically, this could end up backfiring on Labour. Since the election was called, it has been somewhat taken as a given that the Tories would win with a sizable majority, therefore attacks on Labour around the argument of "can you imagine Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister" were unbelievable, given that there was seemingly no way of that ever happen. However, the closer the polls get, the idea of Corbyn as Prime Minister becomes a more likely prospect. It is still an incredibly unlikely, but there's the added perception that it COULD happen, even though it won't. Therefore, it could have the effect of galvanizing the Conservative base, and could reel in people who dislike Corbyn, but didn't feel the need to vote Conservative before due to the chances of him getting in being previously slim, but then decide to do so as the prospect of it happening appears greater, whilst still unlikely.

Some interesting polls tonight, but I'm not entirely confident in them translating into results come 8th June and I think Manchester has reset the election anyway.

 

Have to say I don't really understand the idea that Manchester favours Theresa May. Let's face it, for a person who's whole shtick is competence and an ability to keep the country safe and shielded from danger, it's not a great look to have two major terrorist attacks happen on her watch within a few months. Whilst I don't think people will be uncharitable enough to actually blame her for it, it does rather drive home the reality that she (or, realistically, any leader) is not capable of keeping everyone safe at all times with the world as it is, thus undermining one of the main arguments for voting for her.

 

Also worth saying that Corbyn and May are now pretty close to each other in personal favourability ratings (though May still has a lead on the "best PM" question of around the size that Cameron had over Miliband).

Edited May 25, 20178 yr by Danny

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 43% (-1)

LAB: 38% (+3)

LDEM: 10% (+1)

UKIP: 4% (+1)

 

(via @YouGov / 24 - 25 May)