There's such a wide variation in the polls that it's getting farcical now.

 

At least the apparent and unexpected closeness of the context should boost turnout.

Another point occurs - were the polls that showed huge Tory leads before the GE was announced wildly wrong, or did the reality of the forthcoming GE simply focus minds?

 

At the end of the day, the safest prediction is surely that the polls will end up having got the margin, or even the overall result, completely wrong. :lol:

I want to believe.

 

(this false hope is just going to make the inevitable repeat Tory majority that little bit more disappointing though)

 

All the polls seem to show that the Tory support is pretty steady in the low to mid-40's, whereas Labour is having to rely on people who have already changed their minds once during the campaign... :mellow:

Ipsos has Labour breaking 40% and ahead in unasjusted polling :wub:

 

Tores are only high thanks to brainwashing but some are seeing sense.

The weather can be a factor that affects turnout, and there are suggestions in the long range forecast that it could be quite wet on Thursday.

The weather can be a factor that affects turnout, and there are suggestions in the long range forecast that it could be quite wet on Thursday.

I'm not convinced that weather is as big a factor as it used to be.

I'm not convinced that weather is as big a factor as it used to be.

 

Indeed, an article from last year in the New Statesman seemed to suggest that it is the case.

 

Although one hypothesizes that talking about the "weather factor" can be an effective way of doing the opposite - getting people who otherwise wouldn't turn out for a particular party to turn out.

 

If, to take a hypothetical example, you were a Conservative minded individual, but didn't feel the need to vote because you feel that the race in your constituency is already won for the Tories, then the weather takes a turn for the worst, you may be encouraged to go out and use your vote, because you fear that the people who aren't going to vote because of the weather are those who are more likely to vote for your side, ie Conservatives, therefore encouraging you to get out & vote.

 

I'm not sure if there's been any studies carried out to see if that is the case, but it would be interesting to see what encourages the previously apathetic registered voters to change their mind on polling day.

So the latest batch of polls today range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority of about 100 (which is probably the bare minimum that would qualify for a "landslide" victory). In short, a red hot mess.

So the latest batch of polls today range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority of about 100 (which is probably the bare minimum that would qualify for a "landslide" victory). In short, a red hot mess.

 

Just saw them - certainly a wide range of results. When you take into account error margins then it's an even bigger mess likely.

 

With what seems to be another terrosist attack (hopefully it isn't) at London Bridge, that could throw a spanner in the GE. Not sure whether it'd make much difference to the polls.

Edited June 3, 20178 yr by Envoirment

I'm not convinced that weather is as big a factor as it used to be.

 

Because people mind getting soaked less than they used to? :P

 

I carefully avoided suggesting that one party or another would be adversely affected by a wet polling day, as I saw that New Statesman article.

 

So the latest batch of polls today range from a hung parliament to a Tory majority of about 100 (which is probably the bare minimum that would qualify for a "landslide" victory). In short, a red hot mess.

 

The one thing that only the *actual* election result can tell us, is which polling company, if any, used the right adjustment factors on the raw data, or indeed if people were being honest to interviewers.

 

What's the betting though, if there is a narrow win for the Tories, that the losing side will demand a re-run, just as they did with Brexit... :P

 

Because people mind getting soaked less than they used to? :P

 

I carefully avoided suggesting that one party or another would be adversely affected by a wet polling day, as I saw that New Statesman article.

The one thing that only the *actual* election result can tell us, is which polling company, if any, used the right adjustment factors on the raw data, or indeed if people were being honest to interviewers.

 

What's the betting though, if there is a narrow win for the Tories, that the losing side will demand a re-run, just as they did with Brexit... :P

There are more car owners now so more people have a way of avoiding getting wet.

 

Your final question is, of course, ridiculous. We know there will be a re-run within five years (unless you are really paranoid about May's authoritarian instincts).

There are more car owners now so more people have a way of avoiding getting wet.

 

Umbrella owners too. ;)

 

 

Your final question is, of course, ridiculous. We know there will be a re-run within five years (unless you are really paranoid about May's authoritarian instincts).

 

 

Come on, you should recognise my sardonic sense of humour by now. :)

~not trying to distract from the topic and dredge up issues but need to say this one more time~

 

Whether remain or leave won, there would be the same number of calls for another referendum from the losing side. Do not ever tell me that UKIP wouldn't be proposing a second referendum in their manifesto had remain won.

 

That's not to say I'm in favour of a second referendum btw even though I completely understand the issues.

1% in some polls today

 

Unadjusted polling puts Labour ahead.

Edited June 4, 20178 yr by Willy's Tears

1% in some polls today

 

Unadjusted polling puts Labour ahead.

 

'Some' implies more than one, which I do not believe is the case.

~not trying to distract from the topic and dredge up issues but need to say this one more time~

 

Whether remain or leave won, there would be the same number of calls for another referendum from the losing side. Do not ever tell me that UKIP wouldn't be proposing a second referendum in their manifesto had remain won.

 

That's not to say I'm in favour of a second referendum btw even though I completely understand the issues.

 

Farage was literally demanding another referendum as the results came in and he thought he had lost. "This is not the end of it, when it's this close there should be another one until there's a majority view" (I paraphrase).

 

I completely agree with him, but he changed his mind soon as he realised he won - the online petition was started by UKIP, NOT remoaners. They just took over it.

Yougov today has Tories 21 short of majority.

 

Polls are all over the shop right now.

Yougov today has Tories 21 short of majority.

 

Polls are all over the shop right now.

 

AIUI, the YouGov polls are based on a group of people who've signed up with them, i.e. a self-selecting panel? :unsure:

 

If that's true, then they would be representative of people with a greater than average interest in politics, as as such, might not be representative of voters as a whole?

Which Opinion poll was the most accurate at 2015's General Election? Looking at the company responsible for that one's polls for 2017 would probably be the one to put the most trust in.

IIRC the polls had only a 1% difference right up until election day, so none of them!