Which Opinion poll was the most accurate at 2015's General Election? Looking at the company responsible for that one's polls for 2017 would probably be the one to put the most trust in.

 

That wouldn't work, since AIUI they've all changed their methodology since 2015.

AIUI, the YouGov polls are based on a group of people who've signed up with them, i.e. a self-selecting panel? :unsure:

 

If that's true, then they would be representative of people with a greater than average interest in politics, as as such, might not be representative of voters as a whole?

It depends on the source of the survey. If it's an internet one then aye. But I've been phone polled in the past by them

1% in some polls today

 

Unadjusted polling puts Labour ahead.

There's a reason polling is adjusted. Talking about unadjusted polling is like eating flour and insisting it's cake.

AIUI, the YouGov polls are based on a group of people who've signed up with them, i.e. a self-selecting panel? :unsure:

 

If that's true, then they would be representative of people with a greater than average interest in politics, as as such, might not be representative of voters as a whole?

The YouGov projection thing is based on a new technique they're using which is based on a lot of demographic analytics work and is different to the standard internet polls they do (which as it goes aren't self-selecting panels but *do* run the risk of having more politically interested people than normal - that was one of the biggest issues in 2015, and this projection technique is one way they're trying to get around it).

 

The polling industry as a whole thinks what YouGov is doing is really interesting but it's the first time something of this kind has been attempted, so it's subject to potentially huge error. Once refined, it's likely to be the future of polling.

There's a reason polling is adjusted. Talking about unadjusted polling is like eating flour and insisting it's cake.

 

But they usually end up eating crow! :P

There's a reason polling is adjusted. Talking about unadjusted polling is like eating flour and insisting it's cake.

 

Yah but it shows Labour is more popular eith the public no matter what happens with the electorate.

From what I've read the YouGov polling is assuming a higher level of youth turnout than other polls. Never a safe bet to rely on youth turnout though...

IIRC the polls had only a 1% difference right up until election day, so none of them!

One suspicion at the last election was that the polling companies were adjusting their results to fit in more with the other polls. None of them wanted to publish a poll that appeared to be well out of line with all the others. This time they don't seem to be doing that with the result that they appear to be all over the place.

From what I've read the YouGov polling is assuming a higher level of youth turnout than other polls. Never a safe bet to rely on youth turnout though...

The youth vote in the referendum was a lot closer to the overall average than in the last few elections (despite what was reported at the time). YouGov are presumably guessing that the same will be true on Thursday. The fact that the polls are a lot closer than they were at the start of the campaign could help to overcome a sense of apathy among younger voters, so maybe YouGov's assumption will be proved right.

One suspicion at the last election was that the polling companies were adjusting their results to fit in more with the other polls. None of them wanted to publish a poll that appeared to be well out of line with all the others. This time they don't seem to be doing that with the result that they appear to be all over the place.

 

That happened with Hillary and Trump. A couple got 'outliers' showing Trump winning and so hid then away in drawers or adjusted them to hell and back.

I feel like there is less apathy among young people this time but that's probably just me being blinded by following the "right" people on Twitter and the fact all my friends are old enough to vote and more educated this time. I'm hoping youth turnout can be closer to the national average as it feels like we can finally make a real change against the Tories, there's a lot on Facebook etc. circulating about that so hopefully people see and turn out, but I'm not believing the poll predicting a hung parliament at all because it's idealistic at best to assume that the youth turnout will be at the rate they make it.

I think it will be higher, just like the youth vote turned out for Obama and Bernie and the Scottish vote. They WILL turn out when inspired and not jaded by the same old corrupt Elite.

Part of me imagines that the "youth vote" are so uninformed about how the electoral system works that those who have been encouraged to vote by a certain charismatic leader will go to the voting centre, get incredibly confused as to why Jeremy Corbyn isn't on their ballot paper, then either not cast a vote, or out of embarrassment just give their vote to the first name on the paper.

 

(I'm only half joking).

That would never happen - the party name is branded alll the time with 'we will we will we will' basically all anyone says

Even if young people turn out in big numbers though, the places where they're enough of the population to swing the vote are generally places that Labour has already anyway (inner London, major cities, University Towns ect) and will be outnumbered, even at a high turnout, by the over 50s who'll break heavily for the Tories so other than, say, Brighton and Croydon, I don't think that'll benefit Labour in terms of seats as much as getting even bigger majorities in seats they already have.

Yah but it shows Labour is more popular eith the public no matter what happens with the electorate.

How did you work that one out?

Even if young people turn out in big numbers though, the places where they're enough of the population to swing the vote are generally places that Labour has already anyway (inner London, major cities, University Towns ect) and will be outnumbered, even at a high turnout, by the over 50s who'll break heavily for the Tories so other than, say, Brighton and Croydon, I don't think that'll benefit Labour in terms of seats as much as getting even bigger majorities in seats they already have.

 

Yougov made their analysis on a seat by seat basis.

Part of me imagines that the "youth vote" are so uninformed about how the electoral system works that those who have been encouraged to vote by a certain charismatic leader will go to the voting centre, get incredibly confused as to why Jeremy Corbyn isn't on their ballot paper, then either not cast a vote, or out of embarrassment just give their vote to the first name on the paper.

 

(I'm only half joking).

Not to mention the fact that they will find more than two names on the ballot paper. Minds will be blown.

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 41% (-2)

LAB: 40% (+3)

 

(via @Survation / 02 - 03 Jun)

Chgs. w/ 27 May.

Yah but it shows Labour is more popular eith the public no matter what happens with the electorate.

 

There's only one poll that'll prove that, one way or the other.

 

From what I've read the YouGov polling is assuming a higher level of youth turnout than other polls. Never a safe bet to rely on youth turnout though...

 

Plus, Tory inclined voters may well turn out in higher numbers than normal too, to try & ensure Labour doesn't win...