So if next week's by-election results are as close to as fragmented as they were for the council elections for other parties then this could easily allow the Brexit Party to come through and win.

 

The EU election results for the constituency:

BXP: 37%

LAB: 22.4%

LIB: 13.3%

GRN: 10%

CON: 9.9%

UKIP: 3.3%

CUK: 2.6%

 

The constituency isn't congruous with the local authority: the LA includes wealthier rural areas to the south and west of the city itself where the Tories are stronger. The constituency is slightly more Brexit-y but actually had a lower Brexit Party vote (38.3% for the LA) since the Brexit Party is much better at attracting Tory Leave voters than it did Labour Leave voters.

 

If I were in that constituency I'd grit my teeth and vote Labour.

 

Is the disgraced former MP also standing?

No. Enough sense to know she wouldn't win and just harm Labour, I imagine, although officially she's respecting the recall result. Femi Oluwole (active anti-Brexit campaigner) was also considered to be standing as a Remain candidate but chose not to precisely because it would harm Labour's chances.

 

It's tough to call now, how will the Brexit Party factor into the nominally Conservative vs Labour fight. But it'll give everyone a very useful indication for how sticky the European results might be on more local politics.

The bookies have called it for the Brexit Party in Peterborough, 1-5. Why didn't Farage stand? His best chance yet of becoming an MP and actually having a voice.

 

He just got elected to EU parliament. If he stood and lost the momentum would collapse for his party because it is about Farage and Brexit and nothing else. If he can't win a seat the implication would be nobody can. He won't take the chance of standing anywhere that isn't strongly Leave.

There hasn't been a constituency poll for a byelection for a long time. I wonder if there will be a Peterborough one over the weekend.

I think that it still might be worth sticking a fiver on Labour winning on Thursday. Even though the Brexit Party is on 1/5 to win the election, they still could fizzle out before Thursday as their EU-bounce fades away. 5-1 on Labour seems pretty generous (or if you're feeling really brave, 16-1 on the Lib Dems).

 

If Brexit wins, it would be completely unprecedented for a Farage-led party, as it would be the first time one of his parties has won a seat in the HoC that didn't come as a result of the defection of an already-sitting MP. Of course, the way things are going, he may only be in there for a few weeks.

Mike Greene is on course to be elected the Brexit Party's first ever MP tomorrow after Peterborough’s former MP, Labour's Fiona Onasanya was removed after she was jailed for perverting the course of justice for lying to police to avoid a speeding fine. How long before they overtake other parties in the House of Commons.

 

The Brexit Party has good reason to be confident. Peterborough voted overwhelmingly to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum with 60.1% backing Leave.

 

The seat traditionally flips between Labour and the Conservatives and margins are tight. But there are indications voters are fed up with the two main parties. The latest countrywide poll by YouGov found that 22% of voters would vote for the Brexit Party in a General Election and 24% would vote for the Lib Dems. This is the first time the two top spots have been held by non-traditional parties.

 

Greene appears confident of victory, saying he is hoovering up votes from disgruntled Brexiteer Tories. He told HuffPost: "If we’re going off the response on the doors, we are feeling very positive."

 

The bookies seem to think that the Brexit Party has it, but even now I wouldn't totally rule out Labour or the Conservatives tomorrow (even though the candidate for the former has run into controversy over alleged anti-Semitism).

Would definitely rule out the Tories. Most of the Brexit Party votes will come from them.

 

Think there's a strong chance that the Lib Dem/Green vote share gain will be higher than BXP's winning margin. Which will show that even in a Brexit-leaning seat, Labour have to look after their own vote, which is majority Remain everywhere.

It’s sad to live in a city where I feel like I’m in a minority in not wanting the Brexit Party to have an MP in parliament. I know there are others who feel the same, but there’s a vast majority of this place who are on board with them as a party. The party canvassing for the Tories and Labour has not gone down well with what they’ve shown locally and nationally on the news. Tomorrow’s vote is going to be so poignant and I want it to go so differently but I can’t see it going any other way.

The turnout is just under 50%. The signs are that Labour think they have won. If they thought there was any real chance that they had lost, they wouldn't be saying they'd won. Therefore, I suspect Labour will win with a four-figure majority.

Portillo has announced on the BBC results programme (aka a bunch of Leave supporters babbling on) that he is not a Corbyn supporter. Coming soon, the Pope announces that he is not a Jew.

Looking like Labour has held the Peterborough seat albeit on a low % maybe as low as 30%. Fingers crossed!

Number of Farage party MPs who were not first elected for a different party remains at 0 :D This seems like a pretty bad loss for them as well, in a seat which was 61% leave, voted heavily for BXP in the EU elections and whose previous Labour MP was literally jailed. Plus Labour's new candidate doesn't seem entirely unproblematic herself (sigh) - hard to be thrilled that she won but it's just a relief that it didn't go to BXP as had started to seem inevitable.

 

I've read that this was the lowest percentage for a winner of a by-election ever, with Labour, BXP and Tories all over 20% and Lib Dems also in double figures.

I was fairly sure Labour would hold but good to have it actually be true in the event. Always a close city, just look at its past election results, which just highlights how much of an idiot Onasanya was to get herself involved in any controversy, never mind one that actually got her kicked out. They got away with it, but shouldn't take it for granted.

 

However, this time it was Conservatives and BXP obviously taking chunks out of each other, I find it hard to not feel smug after years of Labour and Lib Dems doing the same thing and letting Tories get elected.

Yes good signs there that Brexit/Tory will cancel each other out in a GE. That's a risky strategy to rely on though, given it was wafer-thin for Labour.

 

MP's engaging in problematic behaviour is quite the thing across the board, but at least she didn't steal tens of thousands in charity money unlike one former-MP north of the border.....

Number of Farage party MPs who were not first elected for a different party remains at 0 :D This seems like a pretty bad loss for them as well, in a seat which was 61% leave, voted heavily for BXP in the EU elections and whose previous Labour MP was literally jailed. Plus Labour's new candidate doesn't seem entirely unproblematic herself (sigh) - hard to be thrilled that she won but it's just a relief that it didn't go to BXP as had started to seem inevitable.

 

I've read that this was the lowest percentage for a winner of a by-election ever, with Labour, BXP and Tories all over 20% and Lib Dems also in double figures.

That byelection stat is certainly plausible. However, the lowest winning percentage I am aware of was Russell Johnston (Lib Dem) in Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber. He won with just 25% of the vote in 1992. The Tories came fourth with 22.6%, just 1,741 votes behind.

This is a shock as I get up and come round this morning as I was sure Brexit party had won it when I went to bed at 1.15am.

DELETED. Double post.

Edited June 7, 20196 yr by Common Sense

I'm so unbelievably relieved, I was convinced the Brexit Party were gonna get this!

Bobby Smith came last with just five votes. Still, that is an improvement on the three votes he won in the general election when he stood against Theresa May in Maidenhead.