Pfft. YouGov is an old people's Tory poll. I don't belive Miss 400 Seat Tory Majority YouGov for one second

 

YouGov was literally the only polling company which correctly predicted a Hung Parliament before the last election? IIRC the media was ridiculing the poll and calling it very "brave".

No that was Survation: https://www.survation.com/survation-most-accurate-pollster/ (the last survey of which had figures of- LAB 42 (-2) CON 41 (NC) LD 10 (NC) GRE (-1) UKIP 5 (+2) AP 2 (NC))

 

YouGov underrepresented Labour by around 6pc in the 2017 GE but somehow got the seat share reasonably well despite this.

 

Personally I have seen the polls shift very little over the past 12 months, this looks like it is likely to be an outlier - used exclusively to provoke debate/discussion - but ultimately meaningless.

and speaking of which... here is the latest Survation poll.

 

and speaking of which... here is the latest Survation poll.

 

 

 

So, basically the same as it's been for quite a while, allowing for margin of error.

Edited January 12, 20196 yr by vidcapper

So, basically the same as it's been for quite a while, allowing for margin of error.

 

Around 40/40 for Labour and Conservatives - and 50/50 for Remain and Leave. Yes - nothing has changed!

 

There is a lot of confirmation bias going around though... especially on Twitter (see: Poll on last page being shared widely as an example of 'Labour losing support due to their current policy on Brexit')

Westminster voting intention:

 

CON: 41% (+4)

LAB: 34% (-6)

LDEM: 8% (+1)

UKIP: 7% (-)

GRN: 4% (-)

 

via @OpiniumResearch, 30 Jan - 01 Feb

Chgs. w/ 18 Jan

 

Quite a shift here, could be an outlier - could be a sign of things finally changing .. ?

Different site than usual - still a summary of recent polls though.

 

https://www.markpack.org.uk/155623/voting-i...poll-scorecard/

Time to both a) look at the first post-Independent Group opinion poll, and b) check out the new Twitter embed function -

 

@1097924742995197953

 

Glad they clarified what IG stands for.

 

I wouldn't read too much into one opinion poll only a day after the grouping came to being, but interesting nonetheless. It would suggest that they will eat up support mainly from Labour, but also a sizeable amount from the Conservatives as well, and hardly any from the Lib Dems, strangely.

The Lib Dems should just disband and form a new centrist party with IG. Lib Dems are far too tainted and any new centrist party will push them further into irrelevance.

 

However, I'm not surprised that Lib Dems have barely lost any support to IG. I think switchers would most likely be the centrist Tories / Labour voters who are unhappy with the current extremities of these parties. Lib Dems continue to plod along and please their core voters but it's difficult to see them making any real headway in future if they couldn't do it with the current weakness of the Tories and Labour.

The IG don't really have any real policies or platform at the moment (except 'stop Brexit') so difficult to see this initial bounce go much higher at this stage, but interesting nonetheless to see such a strong start. I still get the impression it will struggle, especially if and when Brexit is resolved and the other issues facing society became more prevalent.

Those numbers don’t add up at all. Even counting the SNP and PC and NI you’re still a good 7% short of 100%

Interesting to see the IG with such a large share right off the bat. With an 8th Labour MP joining and the potential for more (perhaps even some Tory MPs joining) it could be a nice way of eating into Con/Lab and give us a more spread out vote/seat share amongst parties, in which a colatition government is the only option. There's still a long way until 2022 though (unless there's a GE before then) and it's early days for the IG. They may fizzle out once the "hype" dies down. Hopefully they'll register as a political party and start fleshing out their policies and such. I honestly hope they do well and can cement themselves similarly to how the Lib Dems have. It'd be nice for Lab/Con to have less power and influence.

Those numbers don’t add up at all. Even counting the SNP and PC and NI you’re still a good 7% short of 100%

 

Here is the polling data. It would appear that the 7% short comes from people who voted "Other" - the first table also includes "I would not vote", which from some rough calculations I did appears to have been removed from the headline polling (ie divide the party %s by 74 to get the headline percentage).

Added hilarity in the more detailed breakdown - the 1% of people in Scotland who said they'd vote for Plaid Cymru. A party that is quite well known for not standing candidates in Scotland.

Time to both a) look at the first post-Independent Group opinion poll, and b) check out the new Twitter embed function -

 

@1097924742995197953

 

Glad they clarified what IG stands for.

 

I wouldn't read too much into one opinion poll only a day after the grouping came to being, but interesting nonetheless. It would suggest that they will eat up support mainly from Labour, but also a sizeable amount from the Conservatives as well, and hardly any from the Lib Dems, strangely.

 

What about the 13% not accounted for, though?

Please see my post from 10 hours ago with full polling data.

Interesting to see the IG with such a large share right off the bat. With an 8th Labour MP joining and the potential for more (perhaps even some Tory MPs joining) it could be a nice way of eating into Con/Lab and give us a more spread out vote/seat share amongst parties, in which a colatition government is the only option. There's still a long way until 2022 though (unless there's a GE before then) and it's early days for the IG. They may fizzle out once the "hype" dies down. Hopefully they'll register as a political party and start fleshing out their policies and such. I honestly hope they do well and can cement themselves similarly to how the Lib Dems have. It'd be nice for Lab/Con to have less power and influence.

 

IMO they & the LD's are trying to occupy basically the same ground, so unless they agree not to stand against one another, one will fall heavily.

Here is the polling data. It would appear that the 7% short comes from people who voted "Other" - the first table also includes "I would not vote", which from some rough calculations I did appears to have been removed from the headline polling (ie divide the party %s by 74 to get the headline percentage).

Cheers for the link to the data. That makes more sense although that’s quite a high “other” number given NI is about 2.5% on these polls.

IMO they & the LD's are trying to occupy basically the same ground, so unless they agree not to stand against one another, one will fall heavily.

 

This presupposes the country is as divise as the big two parties, which it is not

This presupposes the country is as divise as the big two parties, which it is not

 

Did you mean 'diverse' or divisive' there? :unsure: