https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/8-to...-party-16179913

 

The vast majority of Brexit Party supporting accounts on social media are, shock horror, bots.

 

Only when the bots start walking into polling stations & voting, will I become concerned. :rolleyes:

 

BTW, any guesses on what the turnout level will be?

The concern is well-founded. Social media is well-used by many people, and seeing 'people' agree with it will reassure them of their views if they were a swing voter. Then they start parroting what they've heard off of social media to others. What starts as bots spreading political messages far more often than any human would turns into artificial grassroots, or, well, astroturfing. Making an idea spread when it shouldn't have the support to. You talk about bots walking into polling stations, if a voter has made their choice to vote for a party from listening to these bot accounts, then they might as well be.

 

This should break electoral funding fairness laws. It happened in 2016, it's happening now and there needs to be regulation over political discourse in the online sphere so it isn't taken over by people with money and inclination to create bot accounts unduly influencing people.

 

I reckon a turnout somewhere around 40%. Several percentage points up on the other EU elections but nothing too crazy.

Only when the bots start walking into polling stations & voting, will I become concerned. :rolleyes:

 

BTW, any guesses on what the turnout level will be?

 

happening in the US where pen and paper have been dropped for internet-based. Good to know you are in favour of staying old fashioned.

 

Farage under investigation (again!) this time the EU for not declaring half a million from Aaron Banks corrupt multi-millionaire who's done a runner and not co-operating in investigations as to where his money support came from

I reckon a turnout somewhere around 40%. Several percentage points up on the other EU elections but nothing too crazy.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it's rather less, especially if some Leavers won't think we'll be in for long, and therefore not bother.

Does anyone know when the votes of the elections next Thursday are counted? We don't hAve an all Nighter to look forward to do we?

Update - as I said earlier, the votes are being verified on Sunday. In my region (South East England), the votes will be counted on Sunday afternoon. This means that the result can be sent to the regional returning officer when the last polls close, i,e, 10pm. (I assume that must be in Portugal). Therefore, the result should be declared fairly shortly after that. I have read that some parts of Scotland (possibly limited to those where the church is still highly influential) will not be counting until Monday.

 

As it is OK for the votes to be counted (but not declared) before polls close elsewhere, I would guess that most UK regions will do the same as South East England. It makes no sense to count overnight on Sunday and the costs of counting on a Bank Holiday are probably the same as the costs of counting on a Sunday.

 

I shall be at the Brighton and Hove part of the count for at least part of the day.

 

In summary, if you are only interested in the results from the UK, you should be able to go to bed before midnight. If you are interested in results from elsewhere, you may have to wait rather longer.

 

 

In summary, if you are only interested in the results from the UK, you should be able to go to bed before midnight. If you are interested in results from elsewhere, you may have to wait rather longer.

 

I don't see why we can't count votes on Friday, but then simply not release them until Monday?

I don't see why we can't count votes on Friday, but then simply not release them until Monday?

I would guess it is largely a matter of reducing the time that people have to keep quiet about the result. Counting on a Friday also takes people away from their regular job, in some cases for the second time this month.

Voted today! The candidate list was so long though, it was almost touching the floor when I was holding it. :lol: Went with the Lib Dems - hopefully they'll do even better than what the opinion polls show.

Counting won't be till Sunday, but some councils have verified the turnout tonight. It looks to be roughly the same as 2014 (35.6%), which is less than many were expecting given this year's prominence. Waiting for more results before jumping to conclusions about where turnout has changed in terms of BXP vs. Remain strength, which will be crucial.

Edited May 24, 20196 yr by Harve

Lower will mean bigger win for Farage?

Lower will mean bigger win for Farage?

Really difficult to say.

 

- Most polls were projecting a higher turnout.

- The BXP vote was stickier, with by far the most supporters declaring that they won't change their mind. Does that also mean that they were definitely gonna turn up to vote? And conversely the other parties could easily stay at home?

- BUT turnout seems to be flat in Leave areas, up slightly in Remain areas, especially if those areas aren't dominated by the two main parties.

 

Suspect this could mean the Labour result is (even) worse than what polls were showing. Don't want to even try to make predictions about the other parties.

Yeh I agree. Heard northern areas had lower turnout and south and south west had higher than average. That suggests for me remain voters were out.

 

My prediction:

 

Brexit 27%

Labour 15%

Tory 10%

Lib Dems 19%

Also could be a case of elderly voters turning out and younger voters not voting, compared to 2014. Which is a bit yikes.

Also could be a case of elderly voters turning out and younger voters not voting, compared to 2014. Which is a bit yikes.

 

WE'll have to wait several days to find out, though. :)

 

Also could be a case of elderly voters turning out and younger voters not voting, compared to 2014. Which is a bit yikes.

 

Or the opposite. All of my friends/cousins voted and my parents/a lot of my aunts/uncles didn't. I don't believe my grandad voted either. I've seen a lot of young(er) people being quite active on social media in regards to the vote. Of course action speaks louder than words though and my experience is rather small/limited.

 

Hopefully any increases in turnout will be due to remain-backing voters coming out in force.

Labour MP in the South West has lamented-tweeted polling at the voting hall suggested that area has gone for LibDems in quite a big way. That would be fun if the anecodotal claim is true...

Tory MEP Daniel Hannan tweeted yesterday that he anticipating the Conservatives winning zero seats in the EU election. Whether he's managing expectations or knows something nobody else knows will be revealed on Sunday - I think the former, they'll probably end up with double digit seats, perhaps high single figures at the very worst. I also revise my original prediction and say that the Brexit Party have topped the poll.

My seats prediction for the UK (minus NI)

 

Brexit: 25 (+25)

Labour: 16 (-4)

Lib Dem: 16 (+15)

Green: 8 (+5)

Conservative: 2 (-17)

SNP: 2 (=)

Plaid Cymru: 1 (=)

Change UK: 0 (=)

UKIP: 0 (-24)

 

I reckon the Tories vote is going to be in complete freefall and they'll probably only have one seat apiece in the South East and East Mids. Lib Dems could outpoll Labour in terms of votes but I think they'll be about level in seats.

I think a Labour disaster rather than just a mediocre performance will be the real surprise of the night. Their voters have almost definitely not turned out as they did in 2014. Tory voters on the other hand may have done, but of course a large portion will have gone off to the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems - their disaster has already been anticipated.

My percentage prediction for GB. Haven't put too much thought into the exact percentages but:

 

BXP: 34

LD: 23

Lab: 12

Grn: 9.5

Con: 9.5

SNP: 4.5

UKIP: 4

CUK: 2

Plaid: 1

 

That's more pessimistic than most of those analysing the turnout figures. Hoping I'm wrong.

Edited May 26, 20196 yr by Harve