Why wouldn't you put weight on it? They were the most accurate prediction in 2019!!

 

If I was in CCHQ now this would absolutely terrify me. Thankfully I'm not and it looks amazing. Bar reform getting 18 seats - that seems odd and would be a bad thing.

If Reform win 18 seats, at least 17 of them will be utter loons. They will do immense harm to their party / limited company.

Oh please MRP polls be right *_* Lib Dem's as the official opposition would be amazing.

 

 

Scotland Polling

 

Westminster Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 37% (+1)

SNP: 31% (-1)

CON: 14% (-3)

REF: 8% (+5)

LD: 7% (-2)

OTH: 4% (+1)

 

F/w 21st - 25th June 2024. Changes vs. 28th May 2024.

 

https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/upload..._Tables_R1.xlsx

 

 

 

Oh please MRP polls be right *_* Lib Dem's as the official opposition would be amazing.

 

This sums up my thoughts! Please can this happen. Reform to be massively overestimated though. :D

To be fair it would probably be pretty bad for the state of democracy if Labour had the Lib Dem’s as their opposition albeit would be hilarious 🤣

@1805999637909680318

 

Wouldn’t really put too much weight on this but interesting results one week out

think Reform getting >5 seats speaks of the inaccuracy of this poll unfortunately. as much as I’d love to see it as a potential Lib Dem voter I can’t see them finishing second in terms of seats

think Reform getting >5 seats speaks of the inaccuracy of this poll unfortunately. as much as I’d love to see it as a potential Lib Dem voter I can’t see them finishing second in terms of seats

 

As discussed yesterday - these guys had the most accurate prediction in 2019 and are not to be taken lightly. I'd trust their output more than most over pollsters.

 

I think other posters - especially YouGov - are completely underestimating just how unpopular this Conservative party and government is among the general population. How anybody who lived through Covid could bring themselves to vote for them is beyond me.

People said exactly the same in 1997 but they still got 165 seats!

People said exactly the same in 1997 but they still got 165 seats!

 

Big difference this time looking at the 97 wiki is that the Tories are struggling to get 20% whereas in 97 they got close to 31% so to get 160 seats with 20% would require incredible luck and the dynamics do not favour them. Things they could usually rely on such as newspapers etc just don’t have that pull anymore.

That has the Tories winning Clacton, utterly for the birds.

 

It also has Labour barely behind Dunak in his seat!! I can't see it. A tad bit more tactical voring and he'd lose the seat sccording to this, but others hsve him much further out.

Also there wasn’t another party (Reform) also crushing them from the right.

 

Labour is taking the more Centre ground, Reform the right which the Tory’s were hoovering up due to Brexit.

 

Couple that with the Lib Dem’s also squeezing them in the blue areas too.

 

I guess they’re getting it from all angles this time around.

 

Saying that I still think the Tories will perform better than the polls suggest (I hope to be proved wrong)

People said exactly the same in 1997 but they still got 165 seats!

 

In 1997 though they hadn't actively sent people to their deaths, while locking 90% of the population in their homes because covid was oh so dangerous, while they themselves partied and drank with no fear.

It also has Labour barely behind Dunak in his seat!! I can't see it. A tad bit more tactical voring and he'd lose the seat sccording to this, but others hsve him much further out.

 

Dunak? Ballsak more like.

I just wanted y’all to convince me they would do worse as I fear they’ll still have a decent amount of MPs to make a comeback when Starmer let’s us all down in 2029. But thanks, yous have given me faith they are going to lose from all angles 😁

Beware those who drink Sherry...

 

@1806672615769075805

Edited June 28, 20241 yr by ElectroBoy

This sums up my thoughts! Please can this happen. Reform to be massively overestimated though. :D

I know what you’re getting at, but I don’t agree. The Tories will be far too busy fighting themselves to provide any meaningful opposition. A sizeable number of Lib Dem MPs will do a far better job, even if it takes a little while for some of the newcomers to find their feet. They will be even more effective if they are the Official Opposition. Besides, I’d love to see the Tories moaning that they are being treated as irrelevant by news channels.

I know what you’re getting at, but I don’t agree. The Tories will be far too busy fighting themselves to provide any meaningful opposition. A sizeable number of Lib Dem MPs will do a far better job, even if it takes a little while for some of the newcomers to find their feet. They will be even more effective if they are the Official Opposition. Besides, I’d love to see the Tories moaning that they are being treated as irrelevant by news channels.

 

Are you saying the LDs would be the better main opposition? If so I agree with you. :lol:

@1806592157727269369

 

Might be an outlier though - polls are all over the shop these past few days.

Are you saying the LDs would be the better main opposition? If so I agree with you. :lol:

That is exactly what I’m saying.

Survation MRP

 

Penultimate MRP Update.

 

Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland.

 

Probabilistic seat count:

 

LAB 470

CON 85

LD 56

SNP 12

RFM 4

PC 3

GRN 2

 

23,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephone

Fwk 15th - 27th June

 

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp-upd...ty-in-scotland/

 

Survation have tended to slightly underplay the SNP in Scotland this election for some reason, aside from that everything seems perfectly plausible.