You could be right there Rooney. Labour (and Starmer) favourability has taken a fall in the past week, however the underlying metrics suggest this may be just a blip (see below).

 

Source: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumul...rability-01.png

 

While the small drop in his favourability ratings might be worrying to the new Labour leader, Starmer can take some comfort in the fact that he has seen an increase in the number of people who consider him to have positive leadership attributes.

 

Over the course of October the proportion of people who think the Labour leader is “competent” has risen from 40% to 49%. On “decisive” he has gone from 33% to 38%, and on “strong” he has gone from 32% to 37%. In each of these cases this is the highest he has polled on these measures since he took over as leader.

 

In the long run, it is these shifts that will likely end up being more significant than the short term hit to the Labour party’s favouability.

It's always difficult for a leader of the opposition to score well on issues such as whether they are "strong". In most cases they haven't really had the opportunity to be judged on that.

Taken from Electoral Calculus .

 

Prediction based on opinion polls from 09 Oct 2020 to 28 Oct 2020, sampling 13,462 people.

 

CON 303

LAB 260

SNP 58

LIB 6

5 point Labour lead this morning- via YouGov.

 

Westminster Voting Intention:

 

LAB: 40% (+2)

CON: 35% (-3)

LDM: 7% (+1)

BXP: 6% (+2)

SNP: 5% (=)

GRN: 4% (-1)

 

Via

@YouGov

, 4-5 Nov.

Changes w/ 28-29 Oct.

Biggest lead of Starmers leadership!

 

Brexit Party up 2? Maybe due to the restrictions?

Biggest lead of Starmers leadership!

 

Brexit Party up 2? Maybe due to the restrictions?

 

Biggest Labour lead in any poll since July 2019.

 

Yeah I think Farage moaning about lockdown got a slight uptick, we know from the 2015 GE that there is a solid 14-15% of the electorate that fangirl over him.

Survation Poll has Johnson 7 points up

Survation Poll has Johnson 7 points up

 

Centrism is dead. Biden and Starmer should neeeverrr have been the candidates.

Centrism is dead. Biden and Starmer dhould neeevrr have been the candidates.

 

Yet Biden is about to be the next US President and Starmer is closing in on the polls.

Centrism is dead. Biden and Starmer dhould neeevrr have been the candidates.

 

 

We know you wanted Sanders but whom do you think should be leading Labor now?

Edited November 7, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

Yet Biden is about to be the next US President and Starmer is closing in on the polls.

 

And yet Bernie would have won Texas, done FAR better than Biden, had the candidacy STOLEN from him - twice - and Corbyn got more votes than Blair back when the undemocratic corporate media didn't see him as a threat.

I'd have been scared to try Bernie. He would have been far better, no question, Fox News polls show the popularity of M4A. But enough people bought into 'Biden's a communist', I think Bernie would have lost some key states for the benefit of landsliding California harder. I don't think we can push too far left while the far-right are in power. We have to push left while the neoliberals are in power, because they let it happen, and they aren't getting buoyed up by 'get rid of the fascist, let's return to normal politics'. When they're in power there is space then to push better policies for everyone on it. But the left needs to be taking the opportunities given by neoliberal failures then (and I hope the American left do that as they did under Obama, and moreso), because if they then surrender that opportunity to the right attacking from the sidelines we WILL be right back at 2016 again.

 

(Bernie would probably have been favoured to win in 2016, he wouldn't have been favoured in 2020, look at the difference between his two primary campaigns, c.f. Corbyn's two general elections also)

 

What Biden has done has proved how it's possible to decorate a campaign with centrist aesthetics while having some leftist policies on your ticket, and do that successfully. It is the most leftist presidential policy win, perhaps since FDR, even if Biden himself is more naturally conservative.

I def think the blue collar states in the rust belt trusted Joe ahead of Clinton!

And yet Bernie would have won Texas, done FAR better than Biden, had the candidacy STOLEN from him - twice - and Corbyn got more votes than Blair back when the undemocratic corporate media didn't see him as a threat.

 

You're deluded Michael. There is absolutely no way Bernie would have done better than Biden in 2020. You're starting to sound like the man you hate now.

 

You're deluded Michael. There is absolutely no way Bernie would have done better than Biden in 2020. You're starting to sound like the man you hate now.

 

And yet all polls consistently had Bernie a lot higher than Biden vs Trump or Hillary vs Trump, and he is the most popular politician in the country, AND has more popular policies, AND!!! all progressives stormed to victory. The neolib extreme centrists, your lot, struggled or lost. It is clear.

Your tone is very, extreme.

It's a counterfactual that we can't test.

 

Bernie would have likely lost Florida, and given how tight some of the crucial states are in 2020 it would have been a RISK to have him leading the ticket for sure. I'm not saying that he wouldn't have won, just that I don't see how you can be sure that he would have. Biden won, I would have preferred Bernie Sanders as President but why bring this up now when it doesn't matter?

 

That said, the policies are clearly very popular. I do think that a populist-left figure like AOC could do very well indeed in the future but this was not the time to test that.

And yet all polls consisentlu had Bernie a lot hogher than Biden vs Trump or Hillary vs Trump, and he is the most popular politician in the country, AND has more popular policies, AND!!! all progressives stormed to victory. The neolib extreme centrists, your lot, struggled or lost. It is clear.

 

In this reality, we have Trump for another 4 years. Bernie would never have won against Trump I'm sorry, no matter how popular he is. Just like Corbyn was "popular" it doesn't always translate in to the votes when the times are right.

I doubt Bernie would've won. He'd definitely have lost Florida as it's much easier to pin Bernie with the "communist" tag than Biden and that did have quite the impact there - particularly amongst Cuban Americans. Not to mention Biden had improved on Hilary's numbers in more rural/suburban areas which helped him flip a number of states. Again, I doubt Bernie would've improved the numbers there like Biden has.

 

Either way it's great to see the dems back in power - now we need to hope they can at least tie the senate with the upcoming Georgia run offs.

It's a counterfactual that we can't test.

 

Bernie would have likely lost Florida, and given how tight some of the crucial states are in 2020 it would have been a RISK to have him leading the ticket for sure. I'm not saying that he wouldn't have won, just that I don't see how you can be sure that he would have. Biden won, I would have preferred Bernie Sanders as President but why bring this up now when it doesn't matter?

 

That said, the policies are clearly very popular. I do think that a populist-left figure like AOC could do very well indeed in the future but this was not the time to test that.

 

As David Axelrod rightly pointed out on cnn today issues like free healthcare aren’t left issues they are people’s life issues