I do of course hope that Labour do overtake the Tories as I despise the latter with every fibre of my being but whether Labour can inspire a decent lead with the current leader is another issue entirely. They certainly don't deserve it and friends I speak to are upset that they are offering no real change. My hunch is that the Tories will bumble on with a small lead or even level pegging but they'll find a populist policy or cultural war at the right time. If that doesn't work they'll ditch Johnson for the undeservedly popular Sunak and that will save the day for them.

 

In short Tories will win next election.

I do of course hope that Labour do overtake the Tories as I despise the latter with every fibre of my being but whether Labour can inspire a decent lead with the current leader is another issue entirely. They certainly don't deserve it and friends I speak to are upset that they are offering no real change. My hunch is that the Tories will bumble on with a small lead or even level pegging but they'll find a populist policy or cultural war at the right time. If that doesn't work they'll ditch Johnson for the undeservedly popular Sunak and that will save the day for them.

 

In short Tories will win next election.

 

The Tories were always likely to win the next election, coming with 70+ seats it's going to be very challenging. But you can chip away at seats and it looks like support for Labour and the Lib Dems is increasing, the aim should be chipping the lead and if there is the small chance of having a coalition Government, taking it. The Tories will have a small lead for a while and when the booster programme kicks in it could go one of two ways I suppose - either people will be happy they're getting a booster shot, or some people will be upset because they're not getting one. I'm yet to be convinced the Tory membership would vote Sunak in either.

This is not a drill: we have a poll with Labour in the lead (by 35% to 33%) for the first time since January.

 

That is... by some distance the lowest the Tories' vote share has been in an opinion poll for quite some time. Huh. (Yes it's just one poll but still)

Accompanied with that one is a 1 per cent of people thinking that the new plans to overhaul social care will leave them better off. 1 percent, for a binary.

 

about freaking time, let's hope it's not a fluke

Hopefully the silver lining in this appalling NI hike business is that it proves to be a millstone around their neck they can't get rid of.

Beautiful. When they raid the poor to protect the wealthy yet again then they deserve to sink. Just surprised it’s actually happened….

Worth noting that this is very much the Tory numbers falling rather than the Labour numbers rising. A lot of that is people switching to whatever party Farage is in this week or 'don't know'. I'm sure it won't last, so enjoy it while they're down.

@1436766493304258560

 

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Tories now consistently polling below 40% for the first time since Christmas. Vaccine bounce is over. Unfortch the boundaries are going to be redrawn more favourably for them and voter-ID will be coming in so they will be able to force a win in 2024 quite easily I'd have thought still.

Itd never happen in reality but I am enjoying the prospect of seeing Scotland free of unionist MPs. Even Ian Murray and Fluffy and liar Carmichael all on the dole line. It’s the stuff of wet dreams

Will voter ID work with all those pensioners voting Tory though who have never done it in the past.

 

It will just make postal voting go through the roof and then no election result will be taken seriously as that is more prone to fraud.

The Tories will still take that, but now it's Labour and the Lib Dems chance to have a real go at the Tories as we move past covid. Suspect there will be a mini vaccine boost over the next couple of months depending on what happens tomorrow.

 

You really forget how many idiots we have in Ministerial positions - see the clown today about the £20 UC. Don't think it will take too long before some of Red Wall voters start to see sense.

Which clown is that?

 

Yeh it was ironic that Javid told Marr on Sunday he’s not comfortable asking people for ‘their papers’ when discussing vaccine passports but it’s clearly different for voters rights.

You really forget how many idiots we have in Ministerial positions - see the clown today about the £20 UC. Don't think it will take too long before some of Red Wall voters start to see sense.

 

Oh loved Angela Rayner's response to her getting the sums wrong. She hits the mark far better than the leader.

 

What got my goat, irrespective of the wrong calculation, was this suggestion that oh you just find 2 hours extra work to make up the shortfall as that can be done at a drop of a hat. Often the working poor do all hours they can get and extra ones arent available or they physically can't fit it into their week without dropping dead. Mind you it is the Tories so they don't give a shit.

Which clown is that?

 

Therese Coffey

Therese Coffey

 

Oh her it’s like Johnson is trolling her placing her out to the media!

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Corbyn, with a real alternative, would be 20 points ahead!

Corbyn, with a real alternative, would be 20 points ahead!

 

The Greens would be up 30 points too!

The Greens would be up 30 points too!

 

Under Corbyn and a social democeatic alternative? Sure.