The DNC have stole Bernie's victory speech. He has declared victory now, but the national DNC want a review into these awful results. Anyone see the UTTERLY FAKE coin tosses too?! No wonder Bernie has never won a single one. Wow!

 

 

I don't think they want him as the nominee Michael.

They are supposed to be DEMOCRATS. If they want to wheel out their preferred candidate, FINE. Just do it. But don't conduct sham democracy x

They are supposed to be DEMOCRATS. If they want to wheel out their preferred candidate, FINE. Just do it. But don't conduct sham democracy x

 

 

I agree totally Michael. xx

 

They probably realise he is a liability with the heart problem too. ;)

Edited February 6, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

I agree totally Michael. xx

 

They probably realise he is a liability with the heart problem too. ;)

 

Healthier than bright orange, slurring, rushed to hospital Trump x

 

And it's a movement. Not a person. Th cult of Trump is a cult of personality oop.

I agree totally Michael. xx

 

They probably realise he is a liability with the heart problem too. ;)

gosh, you're truly a broken record. this argument is childish and beyond stupid (v on-brand), I don't know if you're realising this.

FiveThirtyEight have Bernie at 49% to win the democratic nomination.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

 

Sanders 49%

No one - 24%

Biden - 18%

Warren - 4%

Buttigieg - 4%

 

Sounds a bit high to me.

 

No-one means a brokered convention by the way and Superdelegates deciding.

Edited February 7, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

Their ranges are pretty wide right now but they have him very likely to win New Hampshire by a mile, likely to win Nevada, and South Carolina is now looking like a tossup. This is most excellent momentum. He's also technically the most likely candidate to win every single state now, even in Delaware he's essentially tied with Biden. He's managed to be boosted by Iowa.

 

It's not nailed on yet, 538's predicted delegate count for him is a bit short of the number by which he wins the nomination outright without superdelegates, but on their ranges, he'd be so far ahead of his nearest rivals that they couldn't oust him without some true f***ery. Though the maths will change as other candidates start to drop out. I am concerned that Bloomberg and Warren will end up hurting Sanders if they don't withdraw soon, though that is likely Bloomberg's aim.

you'd think the Dems would want to unite to defeat THE GREAT EVIL because this is literally of the highest priority right now but nope. Politics~

Edited February 7, 20205 yr by *CENSORED*

you'd think the Dems would want to unite to defeat THE GREAT EVIL because this is literally of the highest priority right now but nope. Politics~

 

 

Yes you would think that. Anything to get Trump out, the best candidate really even if polls show that it is Bernie leading.

Edited February 8, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris

I still feel like too many of the predictions aren’t taking Bloomberg into account enough. He’s 2nd top with a lot of betting odds now and climbing faster than anyone else - and we have no real clue how well he will do in the primaries yet. For me he’d be the worst candidate so chances are he’ll get nominated

I still feel like too many of the predictions aren’t taking Bloomberg into account enough. He’s 2nd top with a lot of betting odds now and climbing faster than anyone else - and we have no real clue how well he will do in the primaries yet. For me he’d be the worst candidate so chances are he’ll get nominated

 

Bloomberg is going to go in this trading off huge ad buys, because he has no natural support base. Super Tuesday results will be more crucial than anything else. If he comes 3rd or higher in those, he'll be a threat for the rest of the process, if not, he'll be an irrelevance.

 

Of course, he'd be an utter disaster for the Democrats. Establishment Democrats (and yes he does count as one even though he was a Republican, because what was the Republican Party when he was one is now basically extinct in lieu of extremists) are electoral poison. Against him, it'll be comparatively easy for Trump to go for the 'liberal elites are buying your votes' and 'can't stand that Trump was elected to clean out their kind from office'.

 

The people who cheer Nancy Pelosi ripping up some paper are vastly outnumbered by working-class people just trying to make ends meet. There's a big feeling of anti-government among independents and those who aren't registered Democrats. If the candidate seems arcane and wine cavey to those people, the Democrats have lost this.

Bloomberg would surely be even more of an enthusiasm drain for the Democrats than Biden. I really can't see a universe where he somehow wins the primary, money is literally the only thing going for him.

 

What worries me the most is the very real possibility that no one gets a clear majority of the delegates which opens up the DNC pulling some shenanigans to run one of their moderate candidates even if Bernie wins.

I think if Bernie is pulling numbers like the 538 prediction, which is roughly 1700 for him, and 400-600 for all of his nearest challengers bar maybe one pushing 1000, then even though yes he doesn't win the nomination outright, any shenanigans would be so transparent I'd hope the DNC wouldn't have the balls.

 

Though that depends on how delegates from dropped out candidates realign themselves, I've forgotten the rules on exactly how that works.

New Hampshire poll of 2020 Democrats: CNN/UNH

 

Sanders 28% (+3 since January)

Buttigieg 21% (+6)

Biden 11% (-5)

Warren 9% (-3)

Gabbard 6% (+1)

Klobuchar 5% (-1)

Yang 3% (-2)

Steyer 3% (+1)

I only wish that the Labour Party leadership contest released attack videos are brutal as Biden's on Mayor Pete:

 

@1226200604218994689

 

Interesting that he thinks that he's the biggest threat to the race rather than Bernie Sanders - presumably he thinks that Sanders' supporters are unlikely to be swayed over to him.

I only wish that the Labour Party leadership contest released attack videos are brutal as Biden's on Mayor Pete:

 

@1226200604218994689

 

Interesting that he thinks that he's the biggest threat to the race rather than Bernie Sanders - presumably he thinks that Sanders' supporters are unlikely to be swayed over to him.

 

There is more overlap with them both being moderates.

 

I'm intrigued to see what happens with Warren. It's a shame her moment disappeared as soon as she became a frontrunner, but the best thing would be for her to endorse Bernie as soon as his momentum becomes undeniable (soon).

There is more overlap with them both being moderates.

 

I'm intrigued to see what happens with Warren. It's a shame her moment disappeared as soon as she became a frontrunner, but the best thing would be for her to endorse Bernie as soon as his momentum becomes undeniable (soon).

 

I told you all this would happen, but you all said Warren would beat Bernie :lol:

I told you all this would happen, but you all said Warren would beat Bernie :lol:

 

Clearly some (myself included) overestimated his age and his baggage (warranted or not) from 2016 as disqualifying factors. There was genuine momentum for Warren until October but the AOC endorsement and the press mostly deciding Buttigieg was their chosen one rather than her left her without a lane. I'm happy to be proven wrong though — I always wanted Bernie but thought he would have too much opposition from the DNC.

 

Warren (initially) seemed like the easier road to a progressive president. I do think things would be different if she were a man though — compare Warren to Buttigieg and Biden. It's ridiculous.

Edited February 9, 20205 yr by blacksquare

We'll have to quote some of your woeful predictions from last year... :lol:

 

Clearly we overestimated his age and his baggage (warranted or not) from 2016 as disqualifying factors. There was genuine momentum for Warren until October but the AOC endorsement and the press mostly deciding Buttigieg was their chosen one rather than her left her without a lane. I'm happy to be proven wrong though — I always wanted Bernie but thought he would have too much opposition from the DNC.

 

Warren (initially) seemed like the easier road to a progressive president. I do think things would be different if she were a man though — compare Warren to Buttigieg and Biden. It's ridiculous.

 

How so? She was a Republican, lief about her heritage, and was a copy of Bernie - and not an authentic one. Meanwhile, Bernie had a movement and had been building up a base for four years. There was no comparison.

 

Like I said back then, Warren should drop out after NH once it's 100% clear that Bernie is the progressive of choice.

 

I was right again!

 

Great answer from Elizabeth Warren at an event last night.

 

Someone in the audience asked her about a running mate, and said "Who will be your Mike Pence, and look at you with adoring eyes, the way Pence looks at Trump?"

 

She replied "I already have a dog" :D

Edited February 10, 20205 yr by Crazy Chris