at some point i really would like trump to be tied to a pole and paraded around the streets of new york, his native city which also hates him viscerally

 

 

You really hate him don't you?

I can honestly see Trump winning this and that's the sad reality of it all.

 

If Trump loses he will not accept it graciously and his reaction could be a certain MOMENT of 2020 for all the wrong reasons. If he wins, the power will go more to his head.

Niles Edward Francis

@NilesGApol

 

DMR poll of Iowa

 

President

Trump: 48%

Biden: 41%

Texas is up to more shenanigans to try and discount ballots - over 100,000 ballots dropped off at roadside ballot boxes are being contested by state republicans in Harris County - a disproportionately Democratic backing area naturally.

Pence has just Tweeted. "Four more days until four more years"

 

I'm not as confident. Still opting for a Biden big win.

Texas is up to more shenanigans to try and discount ballots - over 100,000 ballots dropped off at roadside ballot boxes are being contested by state republicans in Harris County - a disproportionately Democratic backing area naturally.

Ah yes, Texas. The state that decided that one drop-off box per county was enough. In some cases that’s like having one drop-off box for the whole of Wales.

Trump now up 2 points in Florida - 50%-48%

 

Always thought it would be a narrow Biden win now that looks like being a reality.....

You really hate him don't you?

what reason could i possibly have

polls tend to tighten as it gets closer to election day though don’t they?

polls tend to tighten as it gets closer to election day though don’t they?

 

yep, and they tightened far more in 2016.

The only slightly worrying polling is in PA which is still around a 5% Biden lead on average - but given it’s the most likely tipping point, votes are going to be counted very slowly and there’s already some questionable legal decisions going on (indeed SCOTUS have left it wide open to review the final deadline for accepting mail ballots). I still trust the polls, but it doesn’t bode all that well for a clear process next week.

Trump now up 2 points in Florida - 50%-48%

 

Always thought it would be a narrow Biden win now that looks like being a reality.....

 

But Arizona polls and to a slightly lesser extent Georgia still seem to be looking good for Biden, I think those states are slightly more important in deciding this election race than Florida.

The Trump +2 in Florida is from a pollster that had him at +4 before (pretty far out of line with the consensus of a small Biden lead), so that's actually good news for Biden. By the same token there was a poll from the same pollster with Biden +7 in PA but that was actually down from +9. Both of those movements are within the margin of error of course.

 

The Iowa poll, ngl, is pretty bad, not that Biden needs IA but that it could be forecasting another huge late shift to Trump among independents especially in the midwest (and it is coming from a highly reputable although not infallible pollster). But it looks like it's probably an outlier (the Trump-favouring equivalent of the wild but almost certainly inaccurate Biden +17 in WI the other day) and there have already been several better looking polls out since to calm those nerves - New York Times today has Biden +11 in WI, +6 in AZ, +6 in PA and +3 in FL.

 

Come through Arizona and North Carolina, then Pennsylvania and Florida would both be irrelevant!

-

Edited November 1, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

Come through Arizona and North Carolina, then Pennsylvania and Florida would both be irrelevant!

 

The Arizona blue shift looks permanent if it happens this election, it seems like it will be very difficult for Republicans to ever win that state again. Same maybe with Georgia. It's like what's happening in Texas but sooner.

 

I chat to a lady on Facebook messenger, who also lost her daughter to SADS, like us, and she's in Lebanon, Pennsylvania. They're Trump supporters. They want me to go over for a holiday and stay with them after Covid. Know her through a child loss grief group.

 

That's really nice of them :) Are they realistic and think Biden will win or do they believe in the the 'red wave' and 'fake polls' Trump is going on about? Hopefully you will be able to go there anyway after Covid.

Edited November 1, 20204 yr by Salty Melody

That's really nice of them :) Are they realistic and think Biden will win or do they believe in the the 'red wave' and 'fake polls' Trump is going on about? Hopefully you will be able to go there anyway after Covid.

 

 

Yes they seem lovely people and she was their only child too. :( Have spoken to them on the phone. The guy adores Jaffa Cakes but they're hard to find there so will have to take him some! He was surprised when I told him there were raspberry, lemon and lime and now pineapple ones too. They want me to try Amish food which is very popular there but they're not Amish people.

 

No they think Biden will win. They just can't see all the state polls especially being so wrong. Trump only narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016.

Edited November 1, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

From CNN

 

A new Des Moines Register/Selzer and Co. poll from Iowa likely voters has President Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by a 48% to 41% margin.

 

The average poll in Iowa has Trump up by 2 points.

 

What's the point: Let's be very clear, Biden is the favorite in polling to take back the White House. He leads in the swing states necessary to get 270 electoral votes, and those leads are wider than the ones Hillary Clinton had four years ago.

The Selzer poll is an exception to that rule. If it is correct, Trump is in a far better position than assumed, and we could be in for a much closer race than many expect.

Few, if any, of Biden's pathways to 270 electoral votes run through Iowa. But if Biden isn't doing much better in Iowa than Clinton did four years ago, then Democrats might be worried that he isn't doing better in other places as well.

Indeed, it is possible that Trump wins Iowa by a wide margin that foretells trouble in other states such as critical Midwestern battlegrounds such as Michigan and Wisconsin.

 

But as I noted at the top, the average poll in Iowa paints the picture of a race that is too close to call. There are plenty of polls taken within the last few weeks that show Biden or Trump slightly ahead or slightly behind (Monmouth University, New York Times/Siena College and Quinnipiac University).

 

The reason why the Selzer poll gives Democrats chills and Republicans hope is the history of the Selzer poll. Four years ago, the final Selzer poll had Trump up by an identical 7 points in Iowa. Trump won by 9 points.

Just like then, this 2020 poll comes in the midst of polling in a lot of other states that have Trump in trouble.

Edited November 1, 20204 yr by Sixth Sense

There’s little point paying attention to any individual polls - this has been true for the last few months and remains true today. But then I guess that doesn’t get clicks.

He can have Iowa...it's only 6 EC votes and it won't be a crucial state for winning the whole presidential election (hopefully)

Texas is up to more shenanigans to try and discount ballots - over 100,000 ballots dropped off at roadside ballot boxes are being contested by state republicans in Harris County - a disproportionately Democratic backing area naturally.

 

Btw this has been blocked (again - it's not the first time they've tried this) by the courts. Even 2020 America doesn't seem to be quite insane enough to allow something this blatantly and indefencibly undemocratic.