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2020 United States Presidential Election Thread

Doctor Blind
in News and Politics

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Nope, I think everyone here wishes he was capable of empathy, decency and selflessness. Show me a single good deed he has done that meets those criteria.

Let’s not dive into the world of fiction and sci fi.

 

Every single thing he does is to promote himself and get more money. I wish it was as easy as to call him a devil incarnate but it’s a bit more complicated than that.

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Chris - here is a reminder of the forum rules.

 

If you want to continue to (and I use this word in the loosest possible sense) contribute here, please refrain from trolling others. Let that be a final warning on the matter and take it that if you abuse your posting privileges again you will find yourself taking your baiting back to the cesspit of internet discussion, Digital Spy.

To restore some intellectual weight to this thread:

 

I really disagree with this article on many points (it being written by a centrist who hopes that a Biden landslide would add more conservative Dems to the House :') - not necessarily true, there are tossup districts like CA-42 where a progressive Dem is running) but it's interesting because it brings up two points:

 

a) a Biden landslide is actually pretty possible, he's 10 points ahead on the polls and they're only trending better and better for him

 

and

 

b) this COULD make Trump the (mirror) Carter of his generation in that rather than a representative of his party, he's gone against its status quo, destroying that in the process, and once he's blown-out, the Republicans will have to realign themselves away from the far-right in order to be electorally viable.

 

yes that's pretty hopeful, but it could well be a thing that happens

Apparently some new polls are to be released in the next 24/48 hours which will really worry the White House. As if the last ones weren't bad enough they seem to be getting worse for Trump. He's asked to go on the road every single day that's left now until Nov 3rd, 7 days a week, city to city, with every other engagement/meeting cancelled. A nightmare for the Secret Service protecting him and his officials fear he'll end up collapsing and want him to take days off.

Edited by Crazy Chris

To restore some intellectual weight to this thread:

 

I really disagree with this article on many points (it being written by a centrist who hopes that a Biden landslide would add more conservative Dems to the House :') - not necessarily true, there are tossup districts like CA-42 where a progressive Dem is running) but it's interesting because it brings up two points:

 

a) a Biden landslide is actually pretty possible, he's 10 points ahead on the polls and they're only trending better and better for him

 

and

 

b) this COULD make Trump the (mirror) Carter of his generation in that rather than a representative of his party, he's gone against its status quo, destroying that in the process, and once he's blown-out, the Republicans will have to realign themselves away from the far-right in order to be electorally viable.

 

yes that's pretty hopeful, but it could well be a thing that happens

 

The latter does seem like a fairly likely outcome, even if not quite as much of a seismic shift as Reagan was for the GOP in the late 70'/early 80's it feels inevitable we are heading for a shake up of the sytem - the 6th party system has been in place for basically 10 elections in a row now and you can see it beginning to shift. I don't really think Biden winning in a landslide if necessarily proof positive it will remain that way, but there's every chance of could accelerate the sun belt going Blue and (again, assuming the 2016 trend lines continue) the Rust Belt moving more Republican (again, assuming the 2020 shift is partly anti-Trump/pro-Biden and an outlier). Who knows, but it's very interesting.

As I said earlier, the extent to which a heavy defeat forces the Republicans to rethink will depend on how much they think it is purely due to Covid. A lot of the hard right will point to this year's polls , argue that they were heading for victory before Covid struck and use that as a reason not to change. More moderate Pubs may try to argue that Black Lives Matter also made a difference, that it highlighted just how right-wing Trump is and that a lot of people were driven into the Biden camp as a result.
There'll certainly be a big field for the 2024 Republican nomination if Trump does lose. Nikki Haley and Ivanka Trump both expected to stand as well as Pence but he's tipped to not get it as he has no personality and too associated with being Trump's yes man.

Edited by Crazy Chris

As I said earlier, the extent to which a heavy defeat forces the Republicans to rethink will depend on how much they think it is purely due to Covid. A lot of the hard right will point to this year's polls , argue that they were heading for victory before Covid struck and use that as a reason not to change. More moderate Pubs may try to argue that Black Lives Matter also made a difference, that it highlighted just how right-wing Trump is and that a lot of people were driven into the Biden camp as a result.

 

To be fair Trump probably has won quite a few supporters (the mask and lockdown sceptics) through Covid as well as losing supporters, the polls however suggest the latter outweighs the former.

 

There'll certainly be a big field for the 2024 Republican nomination if Trump does lose. Nikki Haley and Ivanka Trump both expected to stand as well as Pence but he's tipped to not get it as he has no personality and too associated with being Trump's yes man.

 

It will probably leave you heartbroken but I would suggest it is looking like the if is turning into a when.

Edited by ВuzzjackHallowee

Interesting analysis from CNN. 12/10.20.

 

BIDEN'S POLLING BETTER THAN ANY CHALLENGER SINCE 1936.

 

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden is dominating President Donald Trump in the latest polls. No, the election is not over yet, and Trump still has a non-negligible chance of winning.

 

But a look through history reveals that Biden is in a better position at this point than any challenger since 1936, when the first scientific polls were taken in a presidential race.

The ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Sunday was the latest poll to indicate Biden's strength. Biden led Trump by a 55% to 43% margin among likely voters. The poll was the third high quality national poll published this week that had Biden up by at least 10 points and above 50%. The other two being from CNN/SSRS and Fox News.

Indeed, the average of polls has Biden at around 52% or 53% and up by somewhere between 10 and 11 points. This is an unprecedented position for a challenger with a mere 23 days to go until Election Day.

 

In the 21 previous presidential elections since 1936, there have only been five challengers who led at this time. Of those five, only one (Bill Clinton in 1992) was ahead by more than 5 points. None of those five were earning more than 48% of the vote in the polls.

In other words, Biden is the first challenger to be above 50% at this late juncture in the campaign.

This also continues to mark a massive difference with the 2016 campaign. While Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by as high as 7 points in October 2016, she never came anywhere close to approaching 50% of the vote. Trump merely had to win the lionshare of the undecided or third party voters (who would bolt their candidate) to earn a victory in 2016.

 

Even if every undecided or current third party voter went to Trump now, he'd still be down about 5 to 6 points nationally. That's never been the case with an incumbent since 1936 at this point.

Of course, it's the Electoral College that matters. There are very few universes in which Trump could win the Electoral College, if he were to lose nationally by 5 to 6 points.

New polls out on Sunday from CBS News/YouGov demonstrate that Biden's above 50% in some key battlegrounds. He leads 52% to 46% in Michigan and Nevada. In Iowa, a state that Trump took by 9 points in 2016 and is not anywhere close to must win for Biden, the race is tied at 49%.

A look under the hood reveals why Biden is in such a strong position. Since the coronavirus pandemic began, Covid-19 has either been, or been within the margin of error of being the nation's most important problem in Gallup polling.

 

The three challengers in the polling era (Jimmy Carter in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992) who defeated incumbents have all been trusted more than the incumbent to deal with what Americans thought was the nation's most important problem. None, however, were trusted by more than 50% of the voters.

Today, Biden has a huge advantage over Trump when it comes to the pandemic. The clear majority (59%) of likely voters in the last CNN poll said Biden would better be able to handle the outbreak. Just 38% said Trump would do a better job than Biden.

Edited by Crazy Chris

I was told on the night of the 2016 election that it was almost impossible for Trump to win so I refuse to believe anything until the final result (whenever that may be...)
I was told on the night of the 2016 election that it was almost impossible for Trump to win so I refuse to believe anything until the final result (whenever that may be...)

 

 

Yes I went to bed fully believing Clinton would win as that was the prediction. Even Trump thought and some even say hoped, that he would lose. Think he was as shocked as anyone.

 

Trump's in Florida today and will make a big outside speech at the airport. They say it's impossible for him to win without taking Florida and Biden has a lead there of about 4%.

Edited by Crazy Chris

I was told on the night of the 2016 election that it was almost impossible for Trump to win so I refuse to believe anything until the final result (whenever that may be...)

 

As much as Clinton was “favourite” (and she was predicted to win 71/100 times by 538) - her lead was never in the double digits, the race was extremely volatile with her lead being as low as +1 at points and there was reliably about 12-14% undecided voters as late as a few days before the election, who largely broke for Trump. Right now most polls have undecided voters at about 4%, plus Biden is +10 or more on average and his lead hasn’t dropped below +6 since June. It’s not a done deal, but it’s very different than 2016.

Biden having a much bigger national lead than Clinton ever did is obviously also a good sign but the biggest reason this election should be a safer bet than last time is that Biden has been consistently polling at or above 50% in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - if he just holds everything Clinton did in 2016, he only needs to flip those 3 back again and it doesn't matter what happens everywhere else. Of course Clinton was predicted to win those 3 in 2016 but she was notably never at the critical 50% mark in polling, the reason the polls were wrong in those states was that undecided voters in those states nearly all went to Trump or third parties in the end. This time if the polls hold (and they have been very consistent), Biden doesn't need to flip a single undecided voter in those states to win.

 

I say 'should' because my concern here isn't that Biden will legitimately lose (at this point I'd say there's near enough zero chance of that happening) but that Trump is going to try and pull some anti-democratic bullshit, in which case the actual numbers don't matter.

From Opinium:

 

Opinium and Guardian US latest national US poll reveals that, over the last month, undecided voters have swung towards Biden. The month saw the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the presidential debate, White House COVID-19 diagnoses, and American deaths from the virus increase to 210,000.

 

As a result, voters who hadn’t decided in early September have turned to the Democrats, and Biden has gained 5 points among undecided voters since September. Democrats have also injected momentum into existing supporters, with voters for Biden now more likely to turn out than they were last month, up from 75% in September to 82% this month.

 

Subsequently, Biden’s lead over Trump, including don’t know voters, has increased to 17 points. That is, 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden and 40% intend to vote for Trump. This is just short of the lead in the popular vote that Ronal Raegan enjoyed in his second landslide victory.

But if you change the measurements and use figures which exclude Trump voters who are immune then the figures are totally wrong. Person. It’s all a hoax. Woman. Greatest ever hoax. Man. Everyone is saying it. Camera. All the best people. TV.
Uproar from some Republicans after Trump tweets a pic of a nursing home with Joe in there amongst people in wheelchairs and half-asleep. It says Joe For President with the P crossed out. So RESIDENT. He could lose many older votes with stuff like that.
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