Still think the tories will win the next GE though unfort, Boris will just hold out to the full five years so things will have moved on enough for the average idiot voter to forget the parties and realise Starmer hasn’t offered anything so we will be in 1992 territory imo.

 

 

Agreed. I think they'll just sneak in by playing dirty and coming out to give Starmer a real fight. The odds are on for no overall majority now though and odds about the same for either Labour or Tories to win most seats.

 

Next Tory leader favourite is still Hunt, but only just ahead of Truss.

Edited June 26, 20223 yr by cider man

@1565484887242588164

 

@1565484404675411969

Rosie Cooper, Labour MP for West Lancashire, will be resigning her seat to take up a job as chair of an NHS foundation trust. She had a majority of nearly 8,500 in 2019 so it should be an easy hold for Labour, although the turnout may mean a lower majority in numerical terms. I wonder if there will be people trying to get Andy Burnham to stand.

That would be pretty amazing if Burnham did. Hunch says he won't just yet as may reflect badly on ongoing Mayorship

 

Worried about low turnout but should be an easy Labour win

A slightly weird byelection for Gwynedd council on Thursday. In May, the Plaid Cymru candidate was returned unopposed, but he didn't sign his acceptance of office and was, consequently, disqualified. He was no0minated again for the byelection and the Lib Dems also chose to put up a candidate. The PC candidate won with just over 95% of the vote on what appears to have been a pitiful turnout. Let's hope he remembers to sign the paperwork this time.

With all the misery the Tories are enduring in the opinion polls at the moment, it's interesting to note that they gained seats in two local by-elections that were held last night in Leicester & Epping Forest. In both cases, it was overwhelmingly local issues that lead to the Tory win. In Leicester, the Labour candidate was a supporter of the Hindu-nationalist party in India, which went down poorly in a ward with a largely Muslim population. In Epping Forest, the Green Party councillor lost his seat after failing to turn up to meetings for 6 months, and ran again in a straight run-off against the Tory candidate.

 

The Tories are still down circa-net 20 local seats since the start of the year, but I'm sure they'll take any win where they can.

Next May's local elections may well be terrible for the Tories. Conveniently for them, most of the press will be concentrating on something else over the weekend following the elections.

Next May's local elections may well be terrible for the Tories. Conveniently for them, most of the press will be concentrating on something else over the weekend following the elections.

 

Yeah I was thinking this - especially as they did quite well in this set of council elections when they were last up due to the bounce they got for the covid vaccine etc.

 

 

I'd almost forgotten the City Of Chester by-election was happening, but it was in an already Labour seat with a good majority so nothing shocking. First Parliamentary-level test for Sunak though. And this was a marginal as recently as 2015.

 

Results:

LAB 17,309

CON 6,335

LIB 2,335

GRE 787

REF 773

 

Turnout similar to the Wakefield election from June. Clearly conservatives switched or stayed home. Swing is 14% which is good enough to get a strong majority, could be better but I'm not drawing big conclusions from this either way.

 

Stretford and Urmston up next on 15 December, and that one's a real Labour safe seat so let's root for a complete blowout.

Turnout was low 41% and although a good win for Labour shows not a huge positive enthusiasm for the Starmer project. I reckon majority/swing/turnout would have been much higher if Truss was still PM.

 

Best news is the Reform UK, much lauded by the vile right wing media did not increase their vote share by more than just a trickle. Long may that last.

 

A turnout of 41% for a December byelection isn't too bad. The Lib Dem vote went up a bit which is quite surprising given the total lack of a campaign.

Next May's local elections may well be terrible for the Tories. Conveniently for them, most of the press will be concentrating on something else over the weekend following the elections.

 

Voter ID which will put off young Labour voters is likely to be in force by then and might save the Tories.

Voter ID which will put off young Labour voters is likely to be in force by then and might save the Tories.

In true Tory fashion, local authorities haven't been given the resources to process applications or to make sure voters know this is going to happen. Rail cards for senior citizens will be accepted; student railcards will not. The vote-rigging is blatant but you won't read anything about it in most of the press.

I read there was like 8 forms of acceptable non-Passport/Driving License IDs and 4 of which are only open to the over 65s. Absolutely ridiculous

 

Only slight super faint silver lining is that they took the national entitlement card for Scotland which is also given to young folks for their free bus travel

25% turnout and some of the lowest vote totals I've ever seen for Stretford and Urmston.

 

LAB 12,828

CON 2,922

GRE 789

LIB 659

REF 650

 

I hear Manchester is just an ice field right now or something.

Something like a 25% turnout which is not surprising with a combination of cold weather, no doubt about the result and people concentrating on Christmas.

A local byelection in Wigan yesterday saw a turnout of just 5.3% (468 votes). This is believed to be a post-war low.

Still a decent 10.5 swing to Labour in a very safe seat. Never heard of either Stretford or Urmston in my life must admit and thought I'd heard of all the constituencies in the UK by now!

It’s not the nicest area of Trafford tbh but also not the worst. it’s where Old Trafford is located and also covers Trafford park and the Trafford centre. Skirts around sale and altrincham so defo solidly safe die in the wool labour with some new gentrification along the water with Salford being where the LibDems and a couple Tories creep in

The candidates for the West Lancashire by-election, which takes place on 9th February following the resignation of Labour MP Rosie Cooper, have been announced -

 

Liberal Democrats - Jo Barton

Green - Peter Cranie

Labour - Ashley Dalton

Monster Raving Loony - Howling Laud Hope

Reform UK - Jonathan Kay

Conservative - Mike Prendergast

 

Unlike a lot of by-elections in the last few years, there aren't as many parties fielding candidates, and there's only one party there that you could say that's a group of oddballs and weirdos, but that's enough about Reform UK.

 

Will probably be a rather boring result, with Labour likely winning again with over half the votes.